2022 Midterm Elections if Trump had conceded and Roe vs. Wade had not been overturned

[WalterWhite]

In this hypothetical universe, Donald Trump concedes the 2020 Election, and Roe vs. Wade is not overturned; the Supreme Court judges hold their word that abortion is a settled issue. This would put the GOP in a much stronger position heading into the 2022 Midterm Elections than the one in our timeline; the Republican Party would not have to defend its unpopular position on abortion and its electorally toxic (especially for gubernatorial races) election denialism. Tudor Dixon's vehemently pro-life stances would be irrelevant, for Roe vs. Wade would still override any state laws. Overall, the Republican does better across the country, but especially in the heavily pro-choice North.

RESULTS:

House NPV: Republican+8.9%

New House composition: 261 Republican seats and 174 Democratic seats

New Senate composition: 55 Republican seats and 45 Democratic seats

New gubernatorial composition: 35 Republican seats and 15 Democratic seats

House delegation map (Blue = Republican control; Red = Democratic control; Green = split control):

House popular vote by state:

Senate results:



Gubernatorial results:

[WalterWhite]

For the governorships, Lake would've held on to AZ's governor seat by a comfortable margin, while Lombardo would win in NV by a greater margin than in our timeline. Meanwhile, Michels and Schmidt would win their races by comfortable margins, as Zeldin, Jensen, Dixon, Ronchetti, and Drazan would barely skate by in their races. Healey and Moore would still flip their seats to Democratic by comfortable margins, as those flips were inevitable regardless of the circumstances nationwide. Mastriano, LePage and Ganahl would make their races more competitive than our timeline but would still lose due to their controversies.

If Trump had conceded, there would not have been a riot on January 6, 2021, so Mastriano's public image would have not been tainted by that.

[WalterWhite]

Senate



Since Sununu and Ayotte don’t run , I don’t think the GOP picks up NH. CO/WA were not happening regardless


Governor



I think Baker runs for a third term here and the reason I have NY flipping but not NM is the surprise factor. Democrats would not put in the resources necessary to defend NY and on election night it would be the shock flip of the night .

Other than that this is basically how I see the GOP doing

How does the Kansas governorship not flip in this scenario?