Nevada Primary/Caucus (Feb. 6/8) Megathread

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

After Biden hit 96% against Williamson and Phillips in South Carolina with all votes counted, what percent do we think he gets in Nevada against just Williamson? Maybe it's just vibes but Nevada feels like it might be more into fringe figures and/or more prone to a protest vote based off the middle east situation. I can't imagine labor really organized or gave a crap about this.

Any guesses? My guess is 91%. Would you all take the over or under on it?

Under. Williamson will be a non-factor at like 3-4% but Nevada also has None of These Candidates on the ballot and I think None of These Candidates is a far more formidable opponent for Biden than any named opponent he has.

Something like:
Biden 87
None of These Candidates 10
Williamson/Other 3

Seems reasonable. (There's like 10 randos on the ballot too but should be a total non-factor)

Interesting about none of these candidates factor. I forgot Nikki has a shot at being embarrassed.

Thought Trump was alone on the caucus ballot, but I guess Ryan Binkley is on it? Wonder if he draws any kind of even marginal protest vote away from Trump.

Imo Binkley gets like 8-12%% just as a protest vote against Trump.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Is this the first time anywhere someone has lost an election to NOTA?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/None_of_These_Candidates#Notable_impact_on_elections

in the 1976 Republican primary for Nevada's At-large congressional district, None of These Candidates received 16,097 votes, while Walden Earhart received 9,831 votes, followed by Dart Anthony with 8,097 votes. Even though he received fewer votes than "None of These Candidates", Earhart won the Republican nomination.[2]

According to a report by then-Secretary of State Dean Heller, "None of These Candidates" has finished first on three other occasions: in a 1978 Republican congressional primary, a 1978 Republican Secretary of State primary and a 1986 Democratic Treasurer primary.

I wonder whether any margin was as large as this though.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

These results make me think if Trump was up against joke candidates like Biden is, Trump would be doing better in primaries than Biden is.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

These results make me think if Trump was up against joke candidates like Biden is, Trump would be doing better in primaries than Biden is.

Ryan Brinkley is a joke candidate.

That's the point.
When he's up against candidates like Binkley instead of DeSantis/Haley, he performs like this.