CA-22: Could Democrats be shut out of the Top 2 spots?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

What was the Top 2 spot election supposed to do, and why is it considered a reform measure?  I don't know but I hope it doesn't expand to other states because general election voters deserve choices and if its all one party, it just would seem to me that a lot of voters just don't care.  I'm also surprised it hasn't been struck down by courts from independent candidates or third parties that file to have a place on the general election ballot.

Top 2 has been in effect for a decade in CA and longer than that in WA, it has survived every court challenge. The theory behind it is it would force candidates to be more moderate since they may have to appeal to voters of the opposite party. Whether it does that is debatable. As for 3rd party candidates they can file for the blanket primary just like anybody else..

Has there ever to your knowledge been a case where any non-D/R candidate has ever made it to the Top 2?  (Then again, they wouldn't have much better luck in the general election anyway.).  It would be interesting to see if somehow there was a blanket primary where the top 2 were something like a Republican and a Libertarian (or maybe Green), but it was a swing or slightly D-leaning district, and the only reason it happened like that was because there were too many D candidates splitting the vote.

You can find consistent cases of some very Democratic districts producing D vs Other runoffs. There however isn't much interesting data there. Looking solely at recent Congressional races, and not the more numerous legislative ones, we have:

2016: CA-12 (81-19 Pelosi), CA-40 (71-29 Roybal-Allard)

2018: CA-05 (79-21 Thompson), CA-13 (88-12 Lee), CA-20 (81-19 Panetta), CA-34 (72-28 Gomez), CA-40 (77-23 Roybal-Allard)

2022: CA-10 (79-21 DeSaulnier)

The data shows that Dem voters stay loyal even when the opposing candidate is specifically running a  ideological campaign, either to their left or right. You just more or less are seeing the non-Dems vote for the not-Dem.

Things are far more interesting in D v D and R v R runoffs. Especially in situations where one candidate is a incumbent, cause open seats generally lead to localized tribalism rather than coalition building. In these pseudo-primaries there not just are the other parties voters available, but also the change/"throw out the bums" voters who are normally loyal to their party, various demographic or regional factions, as well as ideological cohorts. The fact no matter outcome produces the same partisan result means people are more willing to explore alternatives. Comparing Gomez's race in 2018 when he faced someone with the Green label, to his more recent issues holding off fellow dems offers the best example.




Anyway, on the topic of thread, the answer is no. Hurtado has not raised the money necessary for a campaign, and in general has seemingly failed to launch. Her position in the Senate is safe until 2026, so launching a campaign with limited long-term potential to keep up her name rec was always fine. Similarly, Salas easily obtained the CADP endorsement, something that shouldn't have happened if Hurtado was serious. That required 60% of the delegates at the convention, which had a strong presence of activists and insiders, to vote against their fellow legislator who is seemingly to his left.

Every year these top-two lockout in swing seats discussions come up and they fail to materialize. Voters individually are smart and when they have the information to know that their actions directly matter, the behave differently. There is a reason why lockouts for the opposing party historically have occurred in seats viewed as safe, cause the electorate isn't primed to expect such an outcome and it therefore "sneaks up" on the district.

I also think the primary electorate will be closer to 50-50 rather than 55-45. The 2022 one was inflated because of crossover support for Valadao, since he had a high profile impeachment challenge and was generally expected to win in November because of the anticipated red wave. With Mathys being mostly an afterthought and the race being seen as competitive for November, Democrats will largely stick with voting for their own party in the primary.

A top 2 lockout is close to impossible when the two parties are evenly split and have the same number of candidates running.

Mathys wasn't high profile. Him almost beating Valadao was a total shock to everyone at the time.