2026 Senate Retirements

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

McConnell, Risch, Reed, and Markey. Not sure that Collins or Durbin are ready to throw in the towel yet.

I think Reed and Markey will feel comfortable retiring because there will be deep, deep benches to replace them. Sabina Matos could very easily elevate from Congress to the Senate after winning the RI-01 primary (if she does win) and I would put Pressley or Wu in the driver's seat to win the primary to replace Markey.

These plus Cornyn and Graham. SMC in WV also is getting old and potentially could retire, same as Tillis.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

John Hickenlooper is a possibility. He’s already in his 70s and will certainly face a competitive primary.

Who do you see challenging him in the Senate primary?

I think he probably has one more term in him at least. Same as Warner and Shaheen.

Lmao why would he face a primary when he's been a party-line vote on everything. He hasn't even voted for any bipartisan bills that are controversial with the base.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Mitch gives off lifer vibes so I doubt he retires, especially if Rs take back the senate. Either way he will very likely be primaried out.

It's hard for me to imagine Mitch being primaried.
What makes you think it would be very likely?

I think Trump's base will be a lot more energized to primary him out this time around, as long as they find a candidate to unite behind.

Interesting logic. We shall see in due time how much it proves to bear itself out.

Barring Trump dying, I don’t think there is any way McConnell wins another Republican primary. He’s hated probably more than Schumer is among the base.

Schumer isn't really hated among democrats, most probably don't even know him.
McConnell is DESPISED by the base, moreso than Sinema among democrats. It's hard to overstate just how much of a pariah Mitch has become.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Mitch gives off lifer vibes so I doubt he retires, especially if Rs take back the senate. Either way he will very likely be primaried out.

It's hard for me to imagine Mitch being primaried.
What makes you think it would be very likely?

He's extremely unpopular and this time the MAGA people want him out.
Republicans in primary races across the country last year (even establishment ones) made sure to distance themselves from McConnell, even Daniel Cameron distanced himself from Mitch.
McConnell has also been making more bipartisan votes and votes clearly against the Trump wing. If he cared about being re-elected he wouldn't be saying stupid things like "winning the war in Ukraine is the most important issue for voters" or openly criticising Trump whenever he's brought up.
Mitch is more disliked among Republicans than Sinema is by Democrats. Look at the Republican presidential field, do you think any would seek a McConnell endorsement? Maybe Pence or Hutchinson, but otherwise he is seen on the same level as Cheney now.

As for his "machine", George P. Bush got destroyed in Texas by Ken Paxton because his family became seen as an anti-Trump family, despite him sucking up to Trump and denouncing his family. I saw quotes by political strategists about it that said "no Bush can get elected in Texas anymore". Machines don't work when you're as hated as Mitch.

This isn't a Kemp situation where the only disagreement he has with Trump is the 2020 election (and Kemp never criticised Trump). McConnell (as silly as it sounds to Democrats) is essentially seen as bad as a Democrat in the eyes of most Republicans. And not just online people.

If McConnell ran for re-election, I'd not be surprised if he struggles to break 35% in his primary.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Mitch gives off lifer vibes so I doubt he retires, especially if Rs take back the senate. Either way he will very likely be primaried out.

It's hard for me to imagine Mitch being primaried.
What makes you think it would be very likely?

He's extremely unpopular and this time the MAGA people want him out.
Republicans in primary races across the country last year (even establishment ones) made sure to distance themselves from McConnell, even Daniel Cameron distanced himself from Mitch.
McConnell has also been making more bipartisan votes and votes clearly against the Trump wing. If he cared about being re-elected he wouldn't be saying stupid things like "winning the war in Ukraine is the most important issue for voters" or openly criticising Trump whenever he's brought up.
Mitch is more disliked among Republicans than Sinema is by Democrats. Look at the Republican presidential field, do you think any would seek a McConnell endorsement? Maybe Pence or Hutchinson, but otherwise he is seen on the same level as Cheney now.

As for his "machine", George P. Bush got destroyed in Texas by Ken Paxton because his family became seen as an anti-Trump family, despite him sucking up to Trump and denouncing his family. I saw quotes by political strategists about it that said "no Bush can get elected in Texas anymore". Machines don't work when you're as hated as Mitch.

This isn't a Kemp situation where the only disagreement he has with Trump is the 2020 election (and Kemp never criticised Trump). McConnell (as silly as it sounds to Democrats) is essentially seen as bad as a Democrat in the eyes of most Republicans. And not just online people.

If McConnell ran for re-election, I'd not be surprised if he struggles to break 35% in his primary.

This is a very strange argument seeing as MM ran for a primary in 2020 and got 82% of the vote.

Of course he’s unpopular with ultra online MAGA types and of course people run against his name in other primaries but they were doing this in 2014 and 2016!

It’s also errr strange to compare the Bush Machine in Texas to MM; the Bush machine was really ever only a money machine and hadn’t actually elected a bush state wide to a big role since what 1996?

MM is unpopular and is not loved but it’s just strange to write someone off who won a primary with 86% only three years ago and whose handpicked candidate just won the governors primary!

Dan Cameron was popular and backed by Trump, and the McConnell machine didn't even get involved in the governor's primary.

In 2020 McConnell was put up with by the base. After 2020 it's a completely different story. In 2020 Trump endorsed McConnell and McConnell HADN'T gone publicly against the will of the voters in the way he has recently.

That's like saying (before she went independent) "Kyrsten Sinema got 79% of the vote in her 2018 primary, why would she lose her primary when only some ultra online progressives don't like her?".
You underestimate just how things have changed since 2020 and how much the broader base dislikes him. Remember many representatives in 2022 got under 60% of the primary vote against no-name underfunded challengers because they voted for a hypothetical bipartisan Jan 6 commission that didn't end up passing. Imagine how badly the current #1 most hated Republican by the base would do.