WI-SEN 2024 megathread

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Sean Duffy needs to run

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Inb4 Ramthun runs lol

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Rep. Tiffany seems to be considering:

https://twitter.com/AudreyFahlberg/status/1655971647193600000

He would be a great candidate that appeals to all wings of the party. Sort of like a Ted Budd type, he's also good electorally, which is part of why Dan Kelly underperformed least in his district, he's got a machine there.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Rep. Tiffany seems to be considering:

https://twitter.com/AudreyFahlberg/status/1655971647193600000

He would be a great candidate that appeals to all wings of the party. Sort of like a Ted Budd type, he's also good electorally, which is part of why Dan Kelly underperformed least in his district, he's got a machine there.

Are you sure? Tiffany outran Trump by <2 points in 2020 which isn't really that impressive (WI congressional R ran like 3 points ahead of Trump), especially since I'm guessing his opponent was not funded. Also fwiw Budd only outrunning Trump by 1.5 points in a year ~4-5 points redder than 2020 was pretty bad. Not saying he couldn't win but he hardly seems like some juggernaut, I think Baldwin has a much stronger electability case

Ehh I tend to think Baldwin is overestimated on this forum, however it does Lean Dem at the moment.
The problem is that Republicans just don't have a good bench in WI at the moment and Tiffany is the best they have imo.
Gallagher is a huge warhawk neocon and I'm not sure how that would play in Wisconsin, while Tiffany even voted to take troops out of Syria. He's a populist who is pretty pro-Trump but doesn't tie himself at the hip to Trump the way 2022 candidates did.
Honestly though he'd get national Republicans to invest in the race and that alone makes him a decent candidate.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I'm glad Gallagher isn't running, if he was the nominee I would support Baldwin.

Idk why people think an anti-Trump neocon Reaganite would be a good fit for Wisconsin lmao. How would he get the rurals or Driftless?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I don't understand how statewide races can ever end up without a serious nominee. What, the state party can't convince some random state rep to give it a go? Even as a sacrificial lamb?

Baldwin is favored against pretty much anyone in Wisconsin, but Clarke could tank the entire ticket in the state, including Trump. Someone needs to run for the sole purpose of ensuring Clarke doesn’t get the nomination.

Reverse coattails don't exist.

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I'm a little late in sharing this, but this *totally serious* likely candidate for senate decided to shout out members of Election Twitter (for whatever reason)
https://twitter.com/jtoscano22/status/1704277033277345800?s=20

Pretty sure this was a paid thing from Cameo

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Is the GOP really going to let Baldwin coast to reelection with no significant opposition and then Rs here tell me on every thread I'm underestimating the Rs in the Senate? If you guys aren't going to even try to knock off Baldwin I think saying Rs face a 52-53ish seat cap in 2024 and will struggle to even hit that is increasingly reasonable.

I think Trump winning with a Democratic Senate is an increasingly plausible outcome given the Emerson polls (showing Brown/Tester outrunning Trump by enough to probably win and showing Florida close at the Presidential level) and the speakership debacle. Likely, the coming recession will hurt Biden, but Democrats downballot might be able to rise above it anyway by projecting a general sense of competence.

It's worth pointing out that a 50-50 Senate with Trump President gets tiebroken to an R Senate (though it'd be a super awkward one with Trump needing Collins and Murkowski for everything).

Yeah Trump needs 52 seats for a proper working majority.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Which potential Republican would have the best chance of defeating Baldwin?

Tom Tiffany

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Which potential Republican would have the best chance of defeating Baldwin?

Tom Tiffany

Yes, I'm surprised he didn't run? Maybe he just doesn't want to run a really hard campaign.

He was actively considering a run and apparently for a while was about to launch his campaign but decided against it last-minute. Ngl if he ran he would have a decent shot at beating Baldwin, the GOP's main issue here is they have no bench.