UT-SEN 2024: Romney retiring

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/16/trump-ally-sean-reyes-mitt-romney-primary-00017741

Utah Attorney General Sean Reyes will likely announce a bid for 2024 Senate in May, challenging Romney. Romney, unlike what many say, is actually not that popular in Utah and the GOP establishment in the state according to this article are likely to back Reyes.
This will be something to watch. Imo Romney will just retire though.

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Romney is GOP royalty in Utah and should easily win as a result.

In a recent poll, 41% of Utah voters approve of him and 41% disapprove. This is among ALL voters, not just Republicans (and Democrats likely approve of him more than Republicans do).
Mike Lee is even vastly more popular than Romney is, and most of the Utah GOP establishment has turned on Mitt.
Romney is by no means royalty in Utah and he has a very serious chance of losing (especially against a very serious and popular challenger like Reyes).

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Romney is GOP royalty in Utah and should easily win as a result.

In a recent poll, 41% of Utah voters approve of him and 41% disapprove. This is among ALL voters, not just Republicans (and Democrats likely approve of him more than Republicans do).
Mike Lee is even vastly more popular than Romney is, and most of the Utah GOP establishment has turned on Mitt.
Romney is by no means royalty in Utah and he has a very serious chance of losing (especially against a very serious and popular challenger like Reyes).

Why not run Burgess Owens? I know he’s old, but so was Romney when he was first elected to the Senate. Reyes should primary Cox instead, who’s clearly alienated a lot of the right. We can have a Black senator and a Filipino governor.

Well Trump has asked Reyes to run many times. And Reyes is much more of a Trump loyalist than Owens is.

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Honestly Wilson running could take votes from Romney and split the vote for Reyes.
Him and Cox are moderate Republicans in the vein of DeWine or Collins, if he's seriously running I think he might have inside information that Romney isn't running.

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https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1684700428305350656

I genuinely have no idea what he's gonna do. He's fund-raising like he's retiring, but he talks like he's running again.

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Called it.
Also WE ARE SO BACK!!!

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He should've run in 2016 instead of Jeb. (My guess is that he would've thrown the nomination to Cruz rather than winning, but between him and Ted they could've boxed Trump out of the first four contests and polarized the race between the two of them.)

Anyway, this is a Utah primary and so we have to consider the possibility that the winner will be some random academic or staffer that no one has ever heard of (or even the possibility that the entire field will be random academics and staffers that no one has ever heard of), but the obvious immediate frontrunner is Sean Reyes, who has been known to have Senate ambitions for a while and was exploring challenging Romney in a primary.

Reyes is not the frontrunner. That would be Trent Staggs or Brad Wilson.

Stages barely has any name recognition while Reyes is polling first and is likely to get the Trump endorsement.

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He should've run in 2016 instead of Jeb. (My guess is that he would've thrown the nomination to Cruz rather than winning, but between him and Ted they could've boxed Trump out of the first four contests and polarized the race between the two of them.)

Anyway, this is a Utah primary and so we have to consider the possibility that the winner will be some random academic or staffer that no one has ever heard of (or even the possibility that the entire field will be random academics and staffers that no one has ever heard of), but the obvious immediate frontrunner is Sean Reyes, who has been known to have Senate ambitions for a while and was exploring challenging Romney in a primary.

Reyes is not the frontrunner. That would be Trent Staggs or Brad Wilson.

Stages barely has any name recognition while Reyes is polling first and is likely to get the Trump endorsement.

Well, Reyes is out so it’s all moot anyway.

How about they guy who made Sound of Freedom?

There is absolutely no source saying that Reyes is out. Wikipedia says so but provides n explanation as of why. Brad Wilson is weirdly moderate and will get pushed out by a moderate and a MAGA populist. He simply can’t carve a lane out. Reyes is the FrontRunner and has MAGA money and name recognition. Staggs has some influential endorsements already and could spoil Reyes in favor of John Curtis who is strongly considering running and would be by far the least bad.

I've been seeing a number of leaks from political insiders on Twitter today that Reyes has ruled out running.

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https://twitter.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1702069889542812069?t=CJFY49Izh7DWmbs...

Predictions for the mystery candidate? Probably someone Trumpy because Reyes is very conservative.

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https://twitter.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1702069889542812069?t=CJFY49Izh7DWmbs...
Predictions for the mystery candidate? Probably someone Trumpy because Reyes is very conservative.

The Calvin Coolidge Project is a a rumor mill.

I've been hearing rumors the person he's talking about is Tim Ballard lol

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https://twitter.com/poorly_hidden/status/1702074186179477967
https://twitter.com/poorly_hidden/status/1702074803304198397

Romney is the only member of the Senate openly a member of a cult.

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https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2023/09/15/rare-public-rebuke-lds-church/

One anonymous pastor said he didn't like Ballard. So what? For all we know it could be made up.

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https://twitter.com/hollyonthehill/status/1707077230214651966?t=3pAH2gYGjI-X-hVP...
If so, it's cause the statewide "Wasatch Front Mormon Conservatives" aren't going to run, and he sees a open lane versus the Nationalized GOP types and Trumpists. Even if they overall aren't as openminded as Romney, the Cox coalition's voters remain strong.

Ugh, he's just Romney 2.0.
I hope him and Wilson split the establishment vote.

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https://twitter.com/LindsayOnAir/status/1708986870317953359?t=wk-n2hbaNq6on4AL7o...
Curtis out.

If he ran he probably would have been the frontrunner. Wilson seems to be the establishment choice.

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https://twitter.com/LindsayOnAir/status/1708986870317953359?t=wk-n2hbaNq6on4AL7o...
Curtis out.

If he ran he probably would have been the frontrunner. Wilson seems to be the establishment choice.

Curtis would’ve had a unique advantage in Provo and Utah County given that he was mayor of Provo and represents most of the population in the county. He could’ve put up a solid performance in Salt Lake and Utah counties and won. Presuming someone else major like Blake Moore or Deirdre Henderson runs, Wilson is a not-insurmountable favorite.

I highly doubt Moore runs.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/LindsayOnAir/status/1708986870317953359?t=wk-n2hbaNq6on4AL7o...
Curtis out.

If he ran he probably would have been the frontrunner. Wilson seems to be the establishment choice.

Curtis would’ve had a unique advantage in Provo and Utah County given that he was mayor of Provo and represents most of the population in the county. He could’ve put up a solid performance in Salt Lake and Utah counties and won. Presuming someone else major like Blake Moore or Deirdre Henderson runs, Wilson is a not-insurmountable favorite.

I highly doubt Moore runs.

I agree and I also think Henderson won’t run. However they were the two major options I thought of (Owens is old and probably wants to retire in 2026 after he gets the pension).

Is there maybe some rich Mormon businessman who could get in? The field right now looks ripe for an outsider to jump in.

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Carolyn Phippen, former Mike Lee and Greg Hughes advisor enters the race:
https://www.fox13now.com/news/politics/former-utah-house-candidate-announces-shes-running-for-senate-to-replace-outgoing-mitt-romney

According to her campaign website, Phippen is the executive director of Freedom Front of Utah, which she said "protects individual liberties and the free market." The Salt Lake Tribune reports that Phippen was also a staffer for Sen. Mike Lee.

In her campaign announcement, Phippen touts her "strong commitment to her community and a deep-rooted belief in limited government and individual liberties" and hopes to bring "a fresh perspective" to the office if elected.

“I’m not a career politician. I’m a mom who knows what it takes to raise a family in Utah. For too long, D.C. politicians have prioritized their own interests while their reckless spending has sent our economy spiraling," she said. "I believe that our nation’s best days lie ahead, but we must elect leaders who not only understand the real challenges we face, but who will do the hard work to restore the principles that have made this nation prosper.”

I think it’s possible she can take the MAGA types away from Staggs and towards her, but this probably just splits their vote. Still Likely Wilson until someone major enters.

Mike Lee probably endorses Staggs at this rate, so I'm not sure how much of an impact a former Lee/Hughes staffer will make.

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Carolyn Phippen, former Mike Lee and Greg Hughes advisor enters the race:
https://www.fox13now.com/news/politics/former-utah-house-candidate-announces-shes-running-for-senate-to-replace-outgoing-mitt-romney

According to her campaign website, Phippen is the executive director of Freedom Front of Utah, which she said "protects individual liberties and the free market." The Salt Lake Tribune reports that Phippen was also a staffer for Sen. Mike Lee.

In her campaign announcement, Phippen touts her "strong commitment to her community and a deep-rooted belief in limited government and individual liberties" and hopes to bring "a fresh perspective" to the office if elected.

“I’m not a career politician. I’m a mom who knows what it takes to raise a family in Utah. For too long, D.C. politicians have prioritized their own interests while their reckless spending has sent our economy spiraling," she said. "I believe that our nation’s best days lie ahead, but we must elect leaders who not only understand the real challenges we face, but who will do the hard work to restore the principles that have made this nation prosper.”

I think it’s possible she can take the MAGA types away from Staggs and towards her, but this probably just splits their vote. Still Likely Wilson until someone major enters.

Mike Lee probably endorses Staggs at this rate, so I'm not sure how much of an impact a former Lee/Hughes staffer will make.

I’d bet Mike Lee remains neutral, as Romney stayed neutral in his race.

Mike Lee would have remained neutral if Romney was still running, but now that it's an open seat I don't see why he would endorse.

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https://twitter.com/SLTribPolitics/status/1722711646710226968?t=-A8ERiwlM7LMNuwr...
Never say never I guess?

NOOOOOO

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https://twitter.com/SLTribPolitics/status/1722711646710226968?t=-A8ERiwlM7LMNuwr...
Never say never I guess?

NOOOOOO

He's in:

https://twitter.com/nathanlgonzales/status/1725215005899935790?t=IXHTJpMvTdX8AQJ...

Prediction: Tilt/Lean Curtis primary. He has the unique ability to be somewhat moderate and still be able to get a strong performance out of Utah County (Provo, he was mayor) if not win it outright. He’s also probably able to get a strong performance out of Salt Lake and Weber out of being the most moderate. That’s a great combination to win. The biggest danger to Curtis would actually be someone more moderate than him running, like Becky Edwards who would completely kneecap him. Wilson has to go ham in Utah County to win. But remember that these guys would vote the same the vast majority of the time.

I guess if someone like Becky Edwards gets in, it splits the moderate vote enough to get Wilson in?

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https://twitter.com/SLTribPolitics/status/1722711646710226968?t=-A8ERiwlM7LMNuwr...
Never say never I guess?

NOOOOOO

He's in:

https://twitter.com/nathanlgonzales/status/1725215005899935790?t=IXHTJpMvTdX8AQJ...

Prediction: Tilt/Lean Curtis primary. He has the unique ability to be somewhat moderate and still be able to get a strong performance out of Utah County (Provo, he was mayor) if not win it outright. He’s also probably able to get a strong performance out of Salt Lake and Weber out of being the most moderate. That’s a great combination to win. The biggest danger to Curtis would actually be someone more moderate than him running, like Becky Edwards who would completely kneecap him. Wilson has to go ham in Utah County to win. But remember that these guys would vote the same the vast majority of the time.

I guess if someone like Becky Edwards gets in, it splits the moderate vote enough to get Wilson in?

It would completely derail him in Salt Lake County which he definitely needs to win by a good margin to have any chance at all. Wilson could narrowly eke by with a plurality. Also Staggs/Phippen have no chance at this point because both are running.

What would be the effects if Trump endorses Staggs?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/SLTribPolitics/status/1722711646710226968?t=-A8ERiwlM7LMNuwr...
Never say never I guess?

NOOOOOO

He's in:

https://twitter.com/nathanlgonzales/status/1725215005899935790?t=IXHTJpMvTdX8AQJ...

Prediction: Tilt/Lean Curtis primary. He has the unique ability to be somewhat moderate and still be able to get a strong performance out of Utah County (Provo, he was mayor) if not win it outright. He’s also probably able to get a strong performance out of Salt Lake and Weber out of being the most moderate. That’s a great combination to win. The biggest danger to Curtis would actually be someone more moderate than him running, like Becky Edwards who would completely kneecap him. Wilson has to go ham in Utah County to win. But remember that these guys would vote the same the vast majority of the time.

I guess if someone like Becky Edwards gets in, it splits the moderate vote enough to get Wilson in?

It would completely derail him in Salt Lake County which he definitely needs to win by a good margin to have any chance at all. Wilson could narrowly eke by with a plurality. Also Staggs/Phippen have no chance at this point because both are running.

What would be the effects if Trump endorses Staggs?

I would guess he receives around the same level of support, maybe a bump in Utah County but the rural areas only make up a small percentage of the state’s population (even the Saint George metro is surprisingly small compared to the state as a whole) and those areas are probably mostly Staggs best anyway. If Phippen were to receive a Mike Lee endorsement, it would give her campaign more credibility and put her at the exact same level as Staggs. Wilson’s base is fragile in my opinion because there’s many who could be prone to vote for a more moderate candidate such as Curtis, but also some who could go to either of the Trump-aligned candidates. The main question about Staggs and Phippen is which one will be Hughes and this year’s Wright.

I highly doubt Phippen receives the Lee endorsement, he seems kind of irrelevant so far and Lee is interacting with Staggs all the time on twitter which makes me think he will endorse him.

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Prospective poll finds Curtis with 43%, Wilson 11%, Staggs 6%, the rest Undecided. 60% know who Curtis is, 33% Wilson, 15% Staggs. So even though this poll seems to have been commissioned with the goal of getting Curtis to close the deal and run, there isn't much reason to doubt him having many campaign advantages.

We're gonna get Romney 2.0 aren't we...