2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Apparently Trump is considering endorsing Katie Arrington over incumbent Nancy Mace in the primary for SC-01. As you may remember, Arrington successfully primaried Mark Sanford in 2018 and then went on to lose to Joe Cunningham in the general election.

https://www.fitsnews.com/2022/02/01/sources-donald-trump-planning-endorsement-of-katie-arrington-in-south-carolina-congressional-race/

Mace is in trouble...

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

PPP, Profoundly Poor Polling. Not that it was unexpected because it was internal anyway.

I can't wait for all the bad house polls. It's going to be a true test of whether people have learned anything about our current political situation and structural polling bias. The 2020 house polls were some of the worst and most unrealistic polls I had ever seen. People believed them anyway, and it led many (most, actually) to assume Democrats would do even better in the House than in 2018. What happens when a bunch of polls put Democrats at or even overperforming their 2020 performance in multiple districts, despite the generic ballot being much more R? Or forget that even, we're already seeing right now huge disparities between Biden approval and generic ballot between pollsters (Quinnipiac has Biden approval at -19, GB at R+1 while Fox has Biden approval at -5 but GB at the same R+1) and GB's ranging from R+14 to D+6. Do the "experts" over at Cook, Sabato, or 538 change their outlook on the House, and doubt Republicans actually take control (Dem gerrymandering is also going to help that argument)? Does the narrative soon become "red wave doesn't look likely" despite some of the worst fundamentals for the Democratic Party since 2010 or 1994? We'll see by the summer or early fall if these "nonpartisan" election forecasters try to sell a narrative favorable to Dems again. They can also point to fundraising, which is going to favor Democrats as they have mastered the use of dark money and have billionaires casually dumping hundreds of millions to help them out. It's going to get interesting, but once again (unfortunately) many people are going to be duped and misled in the process.

I can't wait to see the democrat meltdowns after the midterms. Right now on this forum most D users overestimate democrats, but that's nothing compared to outside this forum. For example on alternatehistory.com, where users are significantly less politically aware than people on this forum (but still more than the average person), the average prediction I saw on a midterm prediction thread was democrats GAINING Senate seats, losing no governorships and barely losing the house. If that's how people are viewing the midterms on an (admittedly left-leaning) more politically aware and intelligent forum, I can't imagine how your average democrat voter who is fed daily with "Jan 6 is the end of the GOP" headlines will react to a red wave.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/karringtonsc/status/1491036701682446340
Former Rep. Katie Arrington running against Nancy Mace in the primary. Trump endorsement almost certainly coming soon.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

(A-) rated Trafalgar Group*

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/COSA-National-Issues-Full-Report-0209.pdf
1,073 LV

R 54%
D 42%

If the gold standard says R+12, that means a bigger red wave than 2010. Thanks, DNC, for choosing Biden over Bernie.

Right, because Bernie would be so much more popular right now, therefore able to avoid the political gravity of midterm elections with record high inflation.

Eh, I don't think Bernie would stop a red wave in the midterms but I think he would do better than Biden. He's better at hammering in on certain favorable topics and he'll definitely avoid the base not showing up. He's certainly more rhetorically gifted than Biden.

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https://www.oklahoman.com/story/news/2022/03/05/gop-chairman-john-bennett-joins-race-2nd-congressional-district-oklahoma-markwayne-mullin/9389699002/

OKGOP Chairman John Bennett running for Rep. Mullin (who is running for Senate)'s seat. He's probably going to get the nomination.

Bennett is basically Oklahoma's Wendy Rogers, he's MTG x2 and is well known for endorsing far-right challengers to all significant Oklahoma Republicans as well as making controversial comments about... everything.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/MarkBednar/status/1504780085152423937
LMAO

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

There's a very clear pattern here with the liberal media and university polls (Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Ipsos, YouGov, etc.). They overwhelmingly overestimated Biden's margins in the 2020 elections. They had overwhelming numbers of approval in his early presidency (55-62%), but now they have very low numbers of approval for Biden (like the accurate pollsters) but either statistically tied or Democrats leading in the generic ballot. Their independents are clearly too metropolitan and liberal (and they underrepresent Republicans in many cases). You still see some polls (like Marist with their "Biden bump") showing a D+6 electorate. The 2020 election was a D+1 electorate. The days of D+4 or more are over, but especially for this midterm.

Let's just say that I'm looking at a pollster I trust right now and they have a very similar Biden approval but their generic ballot is dramatically more Republican. Again, common sense, does it make sense that a president in the low 40's in approval would tie or win the generic ballot vote in a midterm? Has that ever happened in the modern era?

Ah, the old I don't like the results so they must be wrong arguement.

Ok, well have fun believing the generic ballot is a toss-up. I'll be laughing all the way until November.

A polling error similar to 2020 means right now is a political environment of around R+7, about where I would expect.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Generic ballot polling is barely worth your time this far from a general election, but the trends in Pew's tracking poll are affirming some narratives:









The gender gap becoming more fundamental than the education gap (but somehow only for men) will be the most dramatic post-Trump development in US voting patterns if it bears out.

I have predicted this for a while. Especially once Gen Z becomes a larger voter group, because the political gender gap for young people is HUGE.

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I have predicted this for a while. Especially once Gen Z becomes a larger voter group, because the political gender gap for young people is HUGE.

Yup. Gen Z men are still by far the most liberal of all male age groups - but because Gen Z women are SUPER liberal, it's the biggest gap.

Gen Z men can move Republican in the future though. A majority of them are vocally anti-woke and anti-cancel culture, even if they agree with dems on most policy. They can probably be appealed to with culture war issues.
Gen Z women are literally the stereotype of woke liberals. It's impossible to ever make them vote Republican.
In 30 years the gender gap will be huge.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I can safely say that the Democrats have been doing well in the past week or so. I guess the GOP cares much more about internal purity than actually winning. I am not really surprised. My projections have the Republicans winning roughly 52-53 Senate seats in November rather than the apocalyptical 55 Senate seats. Go Democrats.

Apart from Colorado throwing their race away, what makes you say that?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I can safely say that the Democrats have been doing well in the past week or so. I guess the GOP cares much more about internal purity than actually winning. I am not really surprised. My projections have the Republicans winning roughly 52-53 Senate seats in November rather than the apocalyptical 55 Senate seats. Go Democrats.

Apart from Colorado throwing their race away, what makes you say that?

A lot of things. Esp Trump endorsing Oz, the GOP is trying to throw away their 2022 Senate chances away pretty much because Trump cares much more about party politics rather than overall Republicans winning(idk why he primaries Kemp still)

I think Oz is a much more formidable candidate than McCormick so I have to disagree.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I can safely say that the Democrats have been doing well in the past week or so. I guess the GOP cares much more about internal purity than actually winning. I am not really surprised. My projections have the Republicans winning roughly 52-53 Senate seats in November rather than the apocalyptical 55 Senate seats. Go Democrats.

Apart from Colorado throwing their race away, what makes you say that?

A lot of things. Esp Trump endorsing Oz, the GOP is trying to throw away their 2022 Senate chances away pretty much because Trump cares much more about party politics rather than overall Republicans winning(idk why he primaries Kemp still)

I think Oz is a much more formidable candidate than McCormick so I have to disagree.

I can tell you definitely that both Fetterman and Lamb want to face Dr. Oz. He is something else. Quite literally, if Lamb won the primary(Dems kind of messed up in the PA primary) the Democrats would be favored to win Pennsylvania Senate race even in this GOP wave.

I disagree. McCormick being the nominee would play perfectly into Fetterman's "working class dem vs banker elite republican" campaign.
And Oz has appeal to suburban women, whereas I can't think of a single group McCormick would do better than your average Republican with, he's generally a very terrible candidate and Romney 2.0.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I can safely say that the Democrats have been doing well in the past week or so. I guess the GOP cares much more about internal purity than actually winning. I am not really surprised. My projections have the Republicans winning roughly 52-53 Senate seats in November rather than the apocalyptical 55 Senate seats. Go Democrats.

Apart from Colorado throwing their race away, what makes you say that?

A lot of things. Esp Trump endorsing Oz, the GOP is trying to throw away their 2022 Senate chances away pretty much because Trump cares much more about party politics rather than overall Republicans winning(idk why he primaries Kemp still)

I think Oz is a much more formidable candidate than McCormick so I have to disagree.

I can tell you definitely that both Fetterman and Lamb want to face Dr. Oz. He is something else. Quite literally, if Lamb won the primary(Dems kind of messed up in the PA primary) the Democrats would be favored to win Pennsylvania Senate race even in this GOP wave.

I disagree. McCormick being the nominee would play perfectly into Fetterman's "working class dem vs banker elite republican" campaign.
And Oz has appeal to suburban women, whereas I can't think of a single group McCormick would do better than your average Republican with, he's generally a very terrible candidate and Romney 2.0.

That is legit not how politics works at all. Dr. Oz campaign worse than David Perdue no show debate at actually convincing people to vote for him. Guy is somehow down in the polls to both Lamb and Fetterman in a race that shouldn't have the Democrats leading. I believe gaffes, being a carpetbagger, his long list of opposition research, and whatever he did in Turkey is making him one of the worst Senate candidates in this entire cycle(Blake Masters and Hanks are legit better candidates than Oz)

Agree to disagree I guess. I also think Masters is a strong candidate. Also that one poll that showed Oz down to Fetterman by 2 was an internal Fetterman poll by Data For Progress lol.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I have predicted this for a while. Especially once Gen Z becomes a larger voter group, because the political gender gap for young people is HUGE.

Yup. Gen Z men are still by far the most liberal of all male age groups - but because Gen Z women are SUPER liberal, it's the biggest gap.

Gen Z men can move Republican in the future though. A majority of them are vocally anti-woke and anti-cancel culture, even if they agree with dems on most policy. They can probably be appealed to with culture war issues.
Gen Z women are literally the stereotype of woke liberals. It's impossible to ever make them vote Republican.
In 30 years the gender gap will be huge.

That's still a huge problem for Republicans though, if Gen Z women vote for Democrats by whopping majorities and Gen Z men are split at best.

I think as they age, most Gen Z men will vote GOP. The two-party system always balances out.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

The 2022 Midterm Election will be a FULL BLOWN Disaster for Democrats if they can't close the Enthusiasm Gap.
According to a new ABC/Ipsos Poll Republicans lead Democrats by a whopping 20-Percentage Point margin
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/democrats-enthusiasm-problems-worsen-ahead-of-midterms-the-note/ar-AAW4ZJ6

Forget about all the GCB Polls who are showing a tight Race. The Enthusiasm matters most in Base Elections.

I expect Record Turnout in every Republican Primary for the next few months.

I mean it makes sense. Democrats have barely done anything, and the GOP's midterm strategy seems to just be boosting base turnout as much as humanly possible.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

The gender gap among Gen Z will likely converge a bit once they get married. Whether that will benefit dems or repubs remains to be seen.

https://twitter.com/a_centrism/status/1515669034599129088
More proof as to my theory about Gen Z and the gender divide. Republicans making "free speech online" an issue can make them have inroads in Gen Z males whereas Gen Z females will be hostile to that and go dem.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

POLITICO piece on both parties' Senate targets. Notably, NH does not appear on either party's list and Democrats don’t seem to be considering NC a viable pick-up opportunity right now.

The GOP-controlled Senate Leadership Fund is reserving eight-figure ad flights starting in September to protect Republican seats in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as well as to take Democratic-held seats in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, the group told POLITICO. SLF also laid down millions in Alaska to protect incumbent Lisa Murkowski from a Donald Trump-inspired primary challenge.

Those GOP plans follow the Chuck Schumer-aligned Senate Majority PAC’s moves to set aside $106 million in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Georgia and Pennsylvania, with most of those ads beginning in August. [...]

Notably, neither super PAC is putting money yet in New Hampshire, where Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan is running for reelection. Republican Gov. Chris Sununu took a pass on challenging Hassan, and both parties will be watching the September GOP primary closely to see who emerges.

Some Republicans are feeling less and less sure about how competitive they will be in the Granite State, but Law said he feels “very confident that we will end up playing in New Hampshire.” In the interim, Republicans and Democrats alike are concentrating elsewhere.

The McConnell-connected Senate Leadership Fund will drop a whopping $37 million in Georgia this fall, $27 million in North Carolina, $24 million in Pennsylvania, $15 million each in Nevada and Wisconsin, $14 million in Arizona and $7.4 million in Alaska. The Schumer-connected Senate Majority PAC reserved $26 million in Pennsylvania, $22 million in Arizona, $21 million in Nevada, $12 million in Wisconsin and nearly $25 million in Georgia.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/18/senate-mcconnell-super-pac-134-million-ads-00025642

Why protect Murkowski? We’re not talking about Susan Collins here, it’s Alaska in a Biden midterm. Any reasonable choice can hold the seat

Because Mitch doesn't want any GOP Senator who is against him.

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FWIW Cook has moved 8 races rightward to either lean D or tossup, and Amy Walters said R’s have very little chance of not taking the house

Congratulations 47th President Trump in that case. I used to want to move to Canada, but the UK or Australia may be a better option, to be further from the US.

I'm pretty bullish on Trump's 2024 chances, but a bad midterm for an incumbent doesn't necessarily mean losing re-election. What it does mean is that Biden will have to completely change his approach to everything in his last two years and somehow turn the political environment around.

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Social issues matter only when the economy is good. If the economy is bad then the economy takes priority.

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I am becoming increasingly convinced there will be a recession this year. I think that will severely damage democrats and maybe make this 2006 2.0.

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Joni Ernst and Elise Stefanik literally make the dumbest endorsements ever. They have no ideological consistency whatsoever, they just endorse whoever the female is.