Why one economist says a US recession is still the most likely outcome

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The data from the last few months confirms that a recession before the election is increasingly likely. We have consistently had bad retail sales numbers, higher than expected inflation, and hiring plummeting.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

If they just keep forecasting a recession every year sooner or later they'll happen to be right...

If you forecast a recession within 2 years of a yield curve inversion you would have been right every time.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

If they just keep forecasting a recession every year sooner or later they'll happen to be right...

That's what about the people who just throw around "bold" predictions. If just 1 is right, you'll be hailed a prophet, but people will of course ignore the other 99 out there predictions there were ignored.

Honestly this sort of happens on Atlas. People who are extremely bullish on one side usually have at least one of two races where they correctly predicted the upset, but the national picture was very off. People who said Trump won win MI/WI/PA aren't that special if they also thought Trump would win VA, CO, NM, NV, ect. Or in 2020 people who predicted GA flipping to Biden but also had him winning OH and IA.

I do not think a prediction is bold if an indicator that has been accurate the last 10 times is flashing red again.