State of the race if Trump won in 2020?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Assume Trump wins AZ, GA, WI, PA in 2020. Assume Perdue and Peters win and all other races are the same outcome.

Democrats have a 7 seat gain in the 2022 Senate.

The Democratic nominee would be leading by double digits and actually go on to win by that much. FL, TX, IA, OH, AK all flip.

Warren, Kloubuchar would probably be in, as well as Whitmer and Newsom.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

After 8 years, Trump would probably be unpopular (approval in the low 40s.)

I think ambitious GOP pols like DeSantis, Hawley would prefer to sit out until 2028 in this scenario.  Pence is the GOP nominee.

After blowing both the 2016 and 2020 elections, the "establishment wing" of the DPUSA would be pretty shot.  They nominate Elizabeth Warren.

Warren vs Pence ends up being closer than expected, but Warren wins 286-252.

Probably low 30s. Trump does better on foreign policy but inflation and high interest rates were coming regardless of President. Dobbs would still have happened, and Trump would get the full blame for it since it would happen under his watch.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

After 8 years, Trump would probably be unpopular (approval in the low 40s.)

I think ambitious GOP pols like DeSantis, Hawley would prefer to sit out until 2028 in this scenario.  Pence is the GOP nominee.

After blowing both the 2016 and 2020 elections, the "establishment wing" of the DPUSA would be pretty shot.  They nominate Elizabeth Warren.

Warren vs Pence ends up being closer than expected, but Warren wins 286-252.

Probably low 30s. Trump does better on foreign policy but inflation and high interest rates were coming regardless of President. Dobbs would still have happened, and Trump would get the full blame for it since it would happen under his watch.

Trump is such a polarizing figure that he bottoms out in the low 40s.  He would keep the base, although as a lame duck he could expect some further bleeding.  Maybe that's enough to give him some polls in the mid 30s, but definitely no lower than that.  

Trump was in the low 40s with a good economy and no Dobbs. Doubt he would stay there with high inflation and Dobbs.

The reason his base didn't abandon him despite how bad his character is because his Presidency generally went well.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Assume Trump wins AZ, GA, WI, PA in 2020. Assume Perdue and Peters win and all other races are the same outcome.

Democrats have a 7 seat gain in the 2022 Senate.

The Democratic nominee would be leading by double digits and actually go on to win by that much. FL, TX, IA, OH, AK all flip.

Warren, Kloubuchar would probably be in, as well as Whitmer and Newsom.

I assume you mean Peters loses to James?

I also don't see Trump being unpopular enough for a 7 seat senate lose in 2022. They probably lose it. (Ande definitely lose the House assuming they took it in 2020) But I don't think there are enough swing seats up.

They lose PA (duh), WI.

After that it is hard. NC I can see in a bad midterm. AK would not have Peralta (she won her house race in August 2022- which may have been for control in this TL) OH maybe but I don't see it given how far the state has gone. There where no other GOP seats won in 2022 by less than 11 points.

I have no idea where you would get 7, 5 seems like a herculean task given the map.

PA, NC, WI, OH, IA, UT, FL. The PV was R +3 in 2022 and would’ve been at least D +10 with Trump, so the overall shift should be about 13 points.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

What would be the state of the presidential race today, if Trump was reelected in 2020? Assuming he defeated Biden. Who would be in the race and what would polling look like?

I think Pence would be the GOP frontrunner since Trump doesn't throw him under the bus with a 2020 victory.

I have to agree on Pence.

The Democrats would have swung Progressive after 2 defeats for the Establishment Candidate in a row, however:

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Sanders would have been too old.
Warren has been stained by preventing Sanders from winning in 2020.

So no clear Progressive candidate.

On the Establishment side:

Harris vs Newsom vs Whitmer (assuming she would have won) vs Buttigieg (bankrolled by Bloomberg) in a messy fight.

As to the general:

Since Trump would have avoided the pitfalls that sank Biden (masks, wars, overstimulus) and the Democrats bitterly split, I guess Pence would have been favoured.

We printed lots of money and passed the CARES act in 2020. Inflation was happening regardless of who was elected. Masks and wars would not have happened under Trump though.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Trump runs again in 2024, obviously. And the now 7-2 conservative supreme court lets him do it. And if they don't, he runs anyway. Who's to stop him? Another obvious possibility is there there simply isn't a presidential election in 2024.

Democrats win by LBJ 1964 margins if Trump ran for a third term.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Likely to Safe D for the same reason 2024 is Likely to Safe R with Biden.