Could Democrats win a 2024 Trump +30 House Seat in 2026?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Based on fundamentals and polling, 2024 seems to be tracking at around Trump +5. 2026 fundamentals seem to be about D +15. This gives about a 20 point shift, and Democrats might get lucky in a set that's more than Trump +20.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

How do we have any indication of what 2026 fundamentals will be?  I agree that they'll likely favor whichever party loses the presidential election, but I'd imagine we're way too polarized for either party to win a popular vote by fifteen points.

2018 was D +8.6, and the economy is likely to be much worse than 2018. Republicans have lost a lot of high propensity voters since then as well (trading them for low propensity voters).

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

How do we have any indication of what 2026 fundamentals will be?  I agree that they'll likely favor whichever party loses the presidential election, but I'd imagine we're way too polarized for either party to win a popular vote by fifteen points.

2018 was D +8.6, and the economy is likely to be much worse than 2018. Republicans have lost a lot of high propensity voters since then as well (trading them for low propensity voters).

Why would the economy be much worst in 2026? The economy is doing gang busters right now. It'll probably slow down but come on

Highly underwater CRE loans mature, causing a lot of banks to go under. A lot of companies have to refinance debt at higher interest rates, which they can't, so they go bankrupt.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

How do we have any indication of what 2026 fundamentals will be?  I agree that they'll likely favor whichever party loses the presidential election, but I'd imagine we're way too polarized for either party to win a popular vote by fifteen points.

2018 was D +8.6, and the economy is likely to be much worse than 2018. Republicans have lost a lot of high propensity voters since then as well (trading them for low propensity voters).

Why would the economy be much worst in 2026? The economy is doing gang busters right now. It'll probably slow down but come on

Highly underwater CRE loans mature, causing a lot of banks to go under. A lot of companies have to refinance debt at higher interest rates, which they can't, so they go bankrupt.

Of course I have no idea what the future has in store, things can always get worst. But this reminds me when folks on atlas predicted a recession back in 2019. We currently have the best economy in 30 years

Most people think the current state of the economy is bad and getting worse. The best economy in the last 30 years was 1999.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

How do we have any indication of what 2026 fundamentals will be?  I agree that they'll likely favor whichever party loses the presidential election, but I'd imagine we're way too polarized for either party to win a popular vote by fifteen points.

2018 was D +8.6, and the economy is likely to be much worse than 2018. Republicans have lost a lot of high propensity voters since then as well (trading them for low propensity voters).

Why would the economy be much worst in 2026? The economy is doing gang busters right now. It'll probably slow down but come on

Highly underwater CRE loans mature, causing a lot of banks to go under. A lot of companies have to refinance debt at higher interest rates, which they can't, so they go bankrupt.

Of course I have no idea what the future has in store, things can always get worst. But this reminds me when folks on atlas predicted a recession back in 2019. We currently have the best economy in 30 years

Most people think the current state of the economy is bad and getting worse. The best economy in the last 30 years was 1999.

Public perception of the eocnomy is bad, no doubt. Inflation hurts

But we have high growth and low unemployment, at levels not seen since the late 90s

I could easily get high growth and low unemployment by paying people to dig ditches and fill them back up through deficit spending. The key is living standards, which have been declining and getting worse.