I would believe Trump +4 or so today. I think that polls in the Midwest and West largely stay the same for the next year, while Trump gains in the Midwest and South if and when these regions also slip into recession.
If Biden is losing the Mid-West in the opinion polls by that much during an economic boom, I don't want to know what the numbers would look like in an economic recession.
The Midwest and West are already losing jobs looking at BLS reports breakdown by region. Only the Northeast and South are booming. This possibly explains why Biden is doing very well in the Northeast.
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