Damn it, Virginia is a "Lean Dem" state in 2024, not solid. Get it right.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I have Biden winning by a lean margin in my prediction (so between 5-9 points), but Trump getting within 5 points would be a good performance for them. Youngkin's win was as a combination of him focusing on the bread & butter issues, Covid backlash, and distancing while not alienating Trump supporters. Obviously Trump is not taking this example and is unlikely to win back many of the Biden-Youngkin voters that made the governors victory possible.

Trump could do better with minorities than Youngkin though. I have Trump only losing by 4-5 points, with only the Richmond suburbs continuing to shift left.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I think Likely D is fair - it's not quite solid, but there's not enough evidence to put it as Lean

While I def agree the elections in VA since 2020 have ranged from meh to terrible to for Dems, Virginia is always a State where Democrats seem to struggle in off years, in part due to factors like down ballot lag, low black turnout, and a reasonably competent state Republican Party.

Some of these factors like low black turnout should be at least partially fixed just by nature of being a Pres year, and others that competent state Republican Party won't matter if Trump himself is too problematic.

I would also remind even in 2017 which was considered a very good environment for Dems, statewide Dems only did marginally better than Clinton in VA and Biden's 2020 margin ended up being a far more robust 10 point victory.

Biden should be fine in VA in 2024.

I don't think 2022 counts as in meh-to-terrible. Sure Dems lost VA-02 but losing a Biden +2, Youngkin +10, seat by 3 is not really bad at all. VA in 2022 overall suggests about Dems by 4-5 in a national environment that was very slightly lean R, which is right about what you'd expect Dems to do in VA in a year where the GOP barely carried the popular vote nationally.

It looks like Trump will barely carry the popular vote nationally given polling.