MI (Detroit News/Marketing Resource Group)- Trump +7/Whitmer +6

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

That Wayne County vote dump gonna hit like crack next year. Thank you blacks!

Aside from these fake polls has there been any evidence whatsoever that blacks love Republicans now? This is a genuine question, I'm not just being an asshole this time. Presumably at least a small fraction of these black voters who love Trump would have voted for one of his candidates in an election over the course of the last three years, particularly last year when Biden was supposedly as unpopular as George W Bush was in his second term.

There does seem to be a shift in the rural black belt - even Walker outperformed Trump there out of all candidates, and there was also a huge shift right in eastern North Carolina. The same phenomenon was seen in Arkansas, Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

In any case, midterm trends are usually muted compared to President - most of the time the midterm results is just a uniform shift from the last Presidential result based on candidate quality. For example, Starr went from Clinton +60 to O'Rourke +54 to Biden +5.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

That Wayne County vote dump gonna hit like crack next year. Thank you blacks!

Aside from these fake polls has there been any evidence whatsoever that blacks love Republicans now? This is a genuine question, I'm not just being an asshole this time. Presumably at least a small fraction of these black voters who love Trump would have voted for one of his candidates in an election over the course of the last three years, particularly last year when Biden was supposedly as unpopular as George W Bush was in his second term.

There does seem to be a shift in the rural black belt - even Walker outperformed Trump there out of all candidates, and there was also a huge shift right in eastern North Carolina. The same phenomenon was seen in Arkansas, Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

In any case, midterm trends are usually muted compared to President - most of the time the midterm results is just a uniform shift from the last Presidential result based on candidate quality. For example, Starr went from Clinton +60 to O'Rourke +54 to Biden +5.

Even in Georgia, both Warnock and Abrams apparently got 90% of the black vote. As for Texas, those numbers look exciting, but in context I actually think that O'Rourke only getting +54 in Starr when doing dramatically better than Clinton statewide is a pretty good sign in hindsight that Democrats were having issues with RGV hispanic voters. None of that seems comparable to a potential Miami-Dade style shift in Michigan black voters after they were Whitmer +90 in 2022 when Biden was supposedly the most unpopular incumbent ever.

To be clear: I don't think there will be a significant shift among urban black voters. I think Trump will go from 5% to 6-7% in Detroit and Atlanta. The rural black belt in the South is a different story.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Why are these polls so bad this cycle?

Maybe Biden is really that weak. Whitmer's numbers are believable.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Why are these polls so bad this cycle?

Maybe Biden is really that weak. Whitmer's numbers are believable.

It's not just polls with Biden, the same picture in the senate. The Pennsylvania poll has Casey up 41-33%, which is literally worthless.

Fetterman just won by 5. Casey winning by 8 is believable with incumbency advantage + Presidential turnout.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Why are these polls so bad this cycle?

Maybe Biden is really that weak. Whitmer's numbers are believable.

It's not just polls with Biden, the same picture in the senate. The Pennsylvania poll has Casey up 41-33%, which is literally worthless.

Fetterman just won by 5. Casey winning by 8 is believable with incumbency advantage + Presidential turnout.

Yeah, he won by 5 in a year where Democratic candidates across the board (with the exception of Abrams) were doing pretty great in all the swing states. He didn't outperform the top of the ticket by 20 points. But whatever, keep eating up these polls. Pretend you believe them.

2022 turnout was also better for Republicans than 2020 across the board, except for maybe Michigan due to the abortion referendum. Democrats did well because of persuasion. There is reason to think that 2024 turnout will be worse for Republicans.

https://twitter.com/MichaelPruser/status/1697277513074917393

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Trump is more likely to win Nevada by 7 points than he is to win MI by that much(let alone at all)

While I wouldn't bet on Trump winning Michigan (and there's no way he wins it by 7), he is not more likely to win Nevada by seven than to win Michigan by a very narrow margin. You could argue Nevada is more likely to flip, but there is no way it's that lopsided, either.

Nevada is less educated than MI and majority minority. The latter group appears to be getting massively redder. I think some people(not accusing you of this neccessarily) are stuck in 2016.

I would be extremely careful here. It's possible that rural, religious minority voters (ie RGV, black belt) shift hard right while urban, secular minority voters (ie Las Vegas, Miami-Dade) are more stagnant or even shift left.

I'm also not sure there's any evidence of further educational polarization at all. Sure, it increased from 2016 to 2020, but I'm not sure if polling shows that it will continue increasing from 2020 to 2024. Remember that the issue environment has changed from COVID to abortion/economy.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Trump is more likely to win Nevada by 7 points than he is to win MI by that much(let alone at all)

While I wouldn't bet on Trump winning Michigan (and there's no way he wins it by 7), he is not more likely to win Nevada by seven than to win Michigan by a very narrow margin. You could argue Nevada is more likely to flip, but there is no way it's that lopsided, either.

Nevada is less educated than MI and majority minority. The latter group appears to be getting massively redder. I think some people(not accusing you of this neccessarily) are stuck in 2016.

I would be extremely careful here. It's possible that rural, religious minority voters (ie RGV, black belt) shift hard right while urban, secular minority voters (ie Las Vegas, Miami-Dade) are more stagnant or even shift left.

I'm also not sure there's any evidence of further educational polarization at all. Sure, it increased from 2016 to 2020, but I'm not sure if polling shows that it will continue increasing from 2020 to 2024. Remember that the issue environment has changed from COVID to abortion/economy.

While polls aren’t great with cross tabs, the improved margin with white voters Biden is getting most likely comes from college ed whites, and non college whites aren’t moving right enough to make up for that

Here is Nate Cohn's poll:



There doesn't seem to be further increased educational polarization with whites, and a slight increase with minority voters.

I do think that Nevada will be an exception, being as pro-choice as California, and a very urban state.