Was Trump really on track to win reelection before Covid?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Yes

Early 2020, pre COVID. Trump was ahead in Ohio, Florida and North Carolina. Polls showed dead heat in Wisconsin and Pennslyvania. Since polls always underestimate Trump, Trump wins fairly easily.

Between the dumb impeachment and messy primary, Democrats were on track to lose.

This was in the midst of a brutal primary. Also, a recession might've happened anyway without COVID, which would cost Trump even more support since he can no longer blame COVID for the recession.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Yes

Early 2020, pre COVID. Trump was ahead in Ohio, Florida and North Carolina. Polls showed dead heat in Wisconsin and Pennslyvania. Since polls always underestimate Trump, Trump wins fairly easily.

Between the dumb impeachment and messy primary, Democrats were on track to lose.

This was in the midst of a brutal primary. Also, a recession might've happened anyway without COVID, which would cost Trump even more support since he can no longer blame COVID for the recession.

There were no signs of a recessions, the economy was still strong. Just like there were no "signs" back in 2022.

Cable news likes to predict a recession because its "interesting"

The yield curve had already inverted in late 2019.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I think so. The 2020 was still dangerously close even though Biden won 7 million more votes. He probably wins Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin and maybe Nevada. He'd still lose the popular vote by millions.

COVID probably helped Trump in Nevada (and Florida for that matter).