Could FL Gov Flip in 2026?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

DeSantis seems to be governing the state like Alabama. Also, Trump seems to be the favorite for 2024 given that the national polls show a 4 point swing to the right from 2020.

Keep in mind VA-Gov flipped in 2021, and FL probably won't be more than R +10 in a neutral environment by 2024.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

It is theoretically possible, but this would at the very least require the Florida Democratic Party to get their act together after floundering for over a decade at this point.

The Virginia Republican party got their act together in 2021, after nominating Corey Stewart as recently as 2018. They have one of the best Republican candidate recruitments now (which is admittedly a low bar).

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

It is theoretically possible, but this would at the very least require the Florida Democratic Party to get their act together after floundering for over a decade at this point.

The Virginia Republican party got their act together in 2021, after nominating Corey Stewart as recently as 2018.

Imagine if it’s a VA-GOV 2021 redux, with Democrats nominating a fresh-faced business moderate and Republicans nominating Rick Scott.

Even better if it's not Scott (ie Gaetz would probably perform much worse). Youngkin would've won by more against any of McAuliffe's primary challengers.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Ie suppose Disney World actually moves out. It seems possible that a backlash could occur.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Gaetz seems more and more likely to be the nominee. I think he could lose by 10 in a Trump midterm tbh at this point; with his sex trafficking scandal he could be as weak of a candidate as Roy Moore.

I wonder if the party competencies could soon flip in Florida, with Democrats being able to coalesce behind candidates like Mucarsel-Powell or Taddeo and the Republicans nominating Gaetz.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

No.

Democrats could nominate a perfect candidate in every respect and Florida's demographics would still just be too much to overcome.

Matt Gaetz will be the next Governor.

According to Split Ticket, Gaetz had a War Score of D +10 in 2022 (idk how accurate the model is as I don't agree with a lot of the scores), and that's against Rebekah Jones, one of the worst candidates Democrats could pick up. Gaetz has likely only gotten weaker since then, and is under investigation for sex trafficking. If this translates statewide, it's probably a Democratic win.