PA-SEN 2024 megathread

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Good chance of being a split outcome in 2024; Casey wins but Biden loses.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Not much in the latest F&M poll of PA for the senate race given that they couldn't even start polling the GOP primary because no one is in it, but Casey has a positive favorable rating, 39/30.

https://www.fandmpoll.org/poll-release-august-2023/

I'm surprised it's this low. I expected Casey to be much higher net positive.

In any case, Casey is clearly favored; the GOP doesn't really have a bench in PA. Casey +4, Trump +3 is my guess.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Given the results of this week, if Carolyn Carluccio was easily painted as anti-abortion when McCormick literally has *video footage* of him on record being anti-abortion, this could go even worse for him now. He'll be helped by Trump on the ballot, but I can't imagine it will be enough now.

Casey will probably win by 5 points imo

Sounds realistic. That's probably enough for Biden to carry the state as well, by around 2-3 pts. There will be some ticket splitting, but I fail to see how it's Shapiro/Fetterman levels.

The current polls show Trump +3 and Casey +7 on average.