Is the GOP really going to let Baldwin coast to reelection with no significant opposition and then Rs here tell me on every thread I'm underestimating the Rs in the Senate? If you guys aren't going to even try to knock off Baldwin I think saying Rs face a 52-53ish seat cap in 2024 and will struggle to even hit that is increasingly reasonable.
It's worth pointing out that a 50-50 Senate with Trump President gets tiebroken to an R Senate (though it'd be a super awkward one with Trump needing Collins and Murkowski for everything).
I'm thinking in the best case, Democrats hold MT/OH, and flip FL due to the abortion referendum, age depolarization, and Social Security. Emerson already shows Brown/Tester outrunning Biden by probably enough, and it also shows FL very close while Trump is winning in the other swing states comfortably.
