MD-SEN 2024: Cardin retiring, Hogan IN

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

A pretty bad sign for Biden's chances nationally at this point - internal polls must be interesting now if Hogan thinks he has any chance.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

A pretty bad sign for Biden's chances nationally at this point - internal polls must be interesting now if Hogan thinks he has a chance.

Of course he thinks he has a chance, he has 100x more name recognition than any of his Dem opponents. Good luck to him trying to outrun Trump by 30+ points on margin.

Trump will probably lose MD by 25 given where national polling and crosstabs are. Hogan won't win, but it could be only 10-15 points.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

A pretty bad sign for Biden's chances nationally at this point - internal polls must be interesting now if Hogan thinks he has a chance.

Of course he thinks he has a chance, he has 100x more name recognition than any of his Dem opponents. Good luck to him trying to outrun Trump by 30+ points on margin.

Trump will probably lose MD by 25 given where national polling and crosstabs are. Hogan won't win, but it could be only 10-15 points.

Maryland is one of the states with the worst demographic fit for Trump. I would expect he will do even worse there than in 2020

Maryland is very non-white, which means that racial depolarization helps Trump here. Also, Trump is doing about 7 points better nationally than 2020.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

A pretty bad sign for Biden's chances nationally at this point - internal polls must be interesting now if Hogan thinks he has a chance.

Of course he thinks he has a chance, he has 100x more name recognition than any of his Dem opponents. Good luck to him trying to outrun Trump by 30+ points on margin.

Trump will probably lose MD by 25 given where national polling and crosstabs are. Hogan won't win, but it could be only 10-15 points.

Maryland is one of the states with the worst demographic fit for Trump. I would expect he will do even worse there than in 2020

Maryland is very non-white, which means that racial depolarization helps Trump here. Also, Trump is doing about 7 points better nationally than 2020.

Maryland is very black, which means racial depolarization won’t be happening here. Trump is not getting massive improvements with the black vote. A few points from swings in inner cities and rural black voters? Sure. Racial depolarization is mainly Hispanics shifting right and whites shifting left. And Maryland has a lot of highly-educated blacks, who are not swinging to Trump regardless.

Maryland is the worst state demographically for the GOP. Lots of college-educated whites, very large black population. Hogan has no chance.

Polls show Trump getting nearly 20% of the black vote, and turnout could easily be far lower.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

A pretty bad sign for Biden's chances nationally at this point - internal polls must be interesting now if Hogan thinks he has a chance.

Of course he thinks he has a chance, he has 100x more name recognition than any of his Dem opponents. Good luck to him trying to outrun Trump by 30+ points on margin.

Trump will probably lose MD by 25 given where national polling and crosstabs are. Hogan won't win, but it could be only 10-15 points.

Maryland is one of the states with the worst demographic fit for Trump. I would expect he will do even worse there than in 2020

Maryland is very non-white, which means that racial depolarization helps Trump here. Also, Trump is doing about 7 points better nationally than 2020.

Maryland is very black, which means racial depolarization won’t be happening here. Trump is not getting massive improvements with the black vote. A few points from swings in inner cities and rural black voters? Sure. Racial depolarization is mainly Hispanics shifting right and whites shifting left. And Maryland has a lot of highly-educated blacks, who are not swinging to Trump regardless.

Maryland is the worst state demographically for the GOP. Lots of college-educated whites, very large black population. Hogan has no chance.

Polls show Trump getting nearly 20% of the black vote, and turnout could easily be far lower.

Trump won’t get 20% of the black vote. The black voters saying they’ll vote for Trump probably don’t even show up to vote.

It could be Biden black voters that don't show up.