Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

NYT has called the RI-01 Democratic Primary for Amo

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Saw on Twitter that for Edwards to win, she can't be more than 25 points behind Maloy in Washington County. Might be tough. Maloy seems positioned to sweep southern Utah, and although Edwards will do better in St. George than the 9% she got in Piute County, even 30% for her there might be tough.

Not sure if everyone looked at the first returns, thought Edwards had it in the bag and left for the night, but Maloy honestly might be in a better position to win at the moment.

Yeah I think I'd rather be Maloy at this point given that she will sweep the Southern rurals. I'm also not sure what the breakdown of the remaining 20% in SLC/Davis are, but they could all be election day.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I don't think Edwards is getting enough in Salt Lake County to win.

It's still a little early, but I'd expect a call for Maloy within the hour.

Yeah I also think the outstanding vote in Salt Lake/Davis are election-day, meaning that Edwards's margins in those counties will decrease.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I don't think Edwards is getting enough in Salt Lake County to win.

It's still a little early, but I'd expect a call for Maloy within the hour.

Yeah I also think the outstanding vote in Salt Lake/Davis are election-day, meaning that Edwards's margins in those counties will decrease.

I believe Utah is entirely vote by mail, I don't think there will be a huge difference between early votes and votes recieved today.

https://apnews.com/article/election-utah-primary-congress-27bc321fe72490fb17e7a2a5ff946378

"Elections in Utah are conducted predominantly by mail, although voters have the option of voting in person on Election Day. Mail ballots may be received by Sept. 19 but must be postmarked by Tuesday."

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The rural counties that just reported aren't as bad for Edwards as the first ones to report. Still, we will see Washington County.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Washington County

CELESTE MALOY 8022 (44.78%)
BECKY EDWARDS 3997 (22.31%)
BRUCE R HOUGH 5894 (32.9%)

https://www.washco.utah.gov/forms/clerk-auditor/elections/2023/09/index.php

Is that everything there?

Do we know if they have more to report after this?

There are probably around 7-8k left in Washington County to count according to NYT.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Maloy is definitely favored, as only 45% of the remaining vote is expected from Salt Lake and Davis Counties. And conservative candidates tend to overperform in late mail ballots.

The remaining vote from these counties is probably mostly election day. Utah does do election day in person voting. Since Salt Lake City/Davis didn't update after their first drop which happened only a few minutes after polls closed, election day ballots almost certainly haven't been counted yet (as there's no way they could have been included in the first counted batch since there's no way election day ballots are counted that quickly).

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Why does deep red Utah have vote by mail? The idea of turning "election day" into election week is ridiculous and should not be the new normal. Before 2018 we never had to wait till after election night to know who won the races.

It’s funny how you guys think that “it takes a few days longer to know the results” is a legitimate argument against mail-in voting.

Maloy is definitely favored, as only 45% of the remaining vote is expected from Salt Lake and Davis Counties. And conservative candidates tend to overperform in late mail ballots.

The remaining vote from these counties is probably mostly election day. Utah does do election day in person voting. Since Salt Lake City/Davis didn't update after their first drop which happened only a few minutes after polls closed, election day ballots almost certainly haven't been counted yet (as there's no way they could have been included in the first counted batch since there's no way election day ballots are counted that quickly).

Utah is a nearly exclusively a mail ballot state, and has been for a while. If you wish to know why, drive out to the rural areas - trust me you'll pass through many on your way to the Parks. Maybe then you will realize that this is the most efficient method for having elections in the region.

To that point, what remains is not all election day. Also counted are the unknown number of mail ballots that will arrive late but with a postage mark from before polls closed. Most of these will show up before the end of the week. In fact, all of the remaining votes in the super-rurals are probably of this nature.

Nearly exclusively doesn't mean 100%. 80% of the votes from SLC/Davis are already reported. It's entirely possible that most of the 20% remaining is in-person.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

https://twitter.com/SchottHappens/status/1699497360559333662

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1699543365275038114

Even though Hough might win Toole county, this update is net good for Maloy.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

https://twitter.com/beckyforutah/status/1699571354398609811

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

https://twitter.com/CelesteMaloyUT/status/1699588005412118804

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Any chance UT-02 is a single digit race? It was Lee+11 in 2022 iirc.

Polls show a 9 point race right now.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

R +9

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

If the Republican over performs the media narrative will be that this is evidence of voter backlash against Biden and that he’s doomed. If the Democrat over performs, it will mean nothing because low turnout. Just preparing you all

If the result is around R +9 then it will be an indication that polls are accurate.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

If the Republican over performs the media narrative will be that this is evidence of voter backlash against Biden and that he’s doomed. If the Democrat over performs, it will mean nothing because low turnout. Just preparing you all

If the result is around R +9 then it will be an indication that polls are accurate.

This district was Trump +17. That would be a very healthy underperformance by the Republican and certainly wouldn’t track with national polling having Trump up.

The polls that have Trump up also have Democrats doing well downballot, and show that Biden's weaknesses are entirely concentrated among those who didn't show up in 2022.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

If the Republican over performs the media narrative will be that this is evidence of voter backlash against Biden and that he’s doomed. If the Democrat over performs, it will mean nothing because low turnout. Just preparing you all

If the result is around R +9 then it will be an indication that polls are accurate.

This district was Trump +17. That would be a very healthy underperformance by the Republican and certainly wouldn’t track with national polling having Trump up.

The polls that have Trump up also have Democrats doing well downballot, and show that Biden's weaknesses are entirely concentrated among those who didn't show up in 2022.

100% of everyone who didn't vote in special elections, 2022, or 2023 are Republican-we know!

Not 100%, but polls show them breaking by 10%, and probably more like 20% in whiter, swing states.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Polls are closed now.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

If the counties report in the same order as the primary (ie SLC + Davis earlies being reported first), then Riebe should jump to an early lead, before Maloy overtakes eventually.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Toole: 59 to 24. Trump won the county 66 to 28.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Looks like Maloy will end up outperforming Trump.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Piute is >95% reported; 90-6 Maloy vs 88-10 Trump

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Even in Salt Lake this is lackluster for dems. 66% vs McMullin getting 68%.

McMullen was pretty much the high water mark for Dems although technically he wasn't a Dem.  The margin will be somewhere between Trump's margin in 2020 (17?) and Stewart's in 2020 (26).

Which is the real takeaway here. The Utah GOP remains popular, even as the the population opposes Trumpism. Almost 10% for the indies should tell you where the people who voted against Trump but GOP downballot went.

It looks like how pro-life or pro-choice a place is is mostly determining outperformances/underperformances in specials, with the notable exception of MS-Gov (where Presley ran as pro-life).

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

We've certainly seen some overperformances (VA-04, MS, KY, PA) but we've also seen a 'break even' performance (RI-01) and several underperformances (VA leg compared to Biden 2020 numbers, NY county executives, LA, and tonight's race compared to 2020 and ML 2022). This is a very mixed verdict for Ds overall. Remember how slim Biden's winning margins were in several crucial states. Even the slightest declines could have potential to sink him. This isn't really convincing for '24 from Biden's perspective.

It's not exactly a positive sign for Biden's chances, but it isn't really one for Trump's either given Utah is much redder downballot.

Off-year elections just don't mean much. They have very different turnout and very different candidates. This one had higher turnout than most specials, but even then the candidate dynamics are very different.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Ah, so suddenly special elections matter again now.

No I thought the previous ones don't matter and this one doesn't matter either. The polls for 2024 are probably a far better indicator.