March 12-16 Primaries & Caucuses megathread

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Trump won the American-Samoa caucus:

Just 110 votes, but he won all of them and all 9 delegates.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/primaries-and-caucuses/results/american-samoa

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Trump won the American-Samoa caucus:

Just 110 votes, but he won all of them and all 9 delegates.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/primaries-and-caucuses/results/american-samoa

It was held yesterday, but the results were only announced a few hours ago, because of the big time gap.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Will be interesting to see how does better in GA. I imagine it will be Biden, since there is no Uncommitted or Philips (?) on the ballot, while Haley is still on the ballot with Trump.

Williamson and Phillips are still on the ballot in GA and almost anywhere else, because ballots have been printed long ago.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Trump now at 1,078 Delegates. I think he got the Final Delegates out of Colorado and North Carolina.

Every Network has him now at 1,078.

NYT hadn't awarded him the final 3 out of Missouri until now, not sure what the others did.

I'm not sure why NYT and others have not awarded Trump the 8 delegates from Vermont yet, when it's pretty clear that Haley is far below 50 percent (49.3):

https://electionresults.vermont.gov

Colorado has another delegate unassigned, but Colorado has 50.000 ballots left to count.

NC is 100% in, but has another delegate unassigned.

WY (29) and TX (11) have 40 unassigned delegates, but those won't be allocated until April/May.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I think it's possible that both Biden and Trump receive a majority of delegates today already.

At least it's mathematically possible, because with no competition they should sweep all delegates today.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

NYT has awarded Trump the final delegates from TX.

There are still 10 delegates not awarded (8 Vermont, 1 NC, 1 CO).

At least the 8 from VT should be Trump, because Haley was below 50 percent.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

My GA prediction:

94 Biden
  4 Williamson
  2 Phillips

79 Trump
18 Haley
  3 Others

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

My MS prediction:

100 Biden

  89 Trump
  10 Haley
    1 Others

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

My WA prediction:

82 Biden
12 uncommitted
  4 Williamson
  2 Phillips

72 Trump
24 Haley
  4 Others

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Hawaii prediction:

83 Trump
15 Haley
  2 Others

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Biden starts with 100% (4% reporting) in Floyd County, GA.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

83 Trump
15 Haley

2% reporting.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

NYT calls GA for Trump.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

82-16 Trump/Haley now.

I think Haley keeps doing well and gets closer to 20 when Atlanta reports.

A lot of votes were cast before she dropped out.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

5% in:

95 Biden
  3 Williamson
  2 Phillips

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

There's a county called "Clinch" in GA, that's funny.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Republican turnout in GA is 2x as high as Democratic turnout.

Both primaries are uncompetitive at this point.

Does this tell us anything significant for November?

Probably not, maybe that some Republicans are more fired up to vote than some Democrats.

But it doesn't tell us much about the broader Republican electorate for November, or the broader Democratic one, not to mention independent voters.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Republican turnout in GA is 2x as high as Democratic turnout.

Both primaries are uncompetitive at this point.

Does this tell us anything significant for November?

Probably not, maybe that some Republicans are more fired up to vote than some Democrats.

But it doesn't tell us much about the broader Republican electorate for November, or the broader Democratic one, not to mention independent voters.

You going to say that when there is almost zero vote out of the Atlanta area?

Everything is now counted in Georgia (almost)... and R turnout is still twice the D turnout in these uncompetitive races.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

The 8 Vermont delegates have now been awarded to Trump.

Not awarded yet:

1 delegate for CO (50.000 votes left to count)
1 delegate for NC (virtually everything is counted, not sure why it's not awarded yet)
3 from GA (virtually everything is counted, not sure why it's not awarded yet)
6 from HI (virtually everything is counted, not sure why it's not awarded yet)

29 from Wyoming ("Those delegates will be allocated to candidates at the G.O.P. state convention occurring April 18 to April 20.")

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/republican-primary-delegates-tracker-calendar.html

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

The 8 9 Vermont delegates have now been awarded to Trump Haley.

Das stimmt nicht, Anzeigenhauptmeister: Haley hat zwar 9 Delegierte in Vermont gewonnen, Trump aber (jetzt) auch 8 - weil Haley keine Mehrheit der abgegebenen gültigen Stimmen erreicht hat. Insgesamt hat Vermont ja 17 Delegierte und Haley hätte alle bekommen, wenn sie ein wenig mehr Stimmen bekommen hätte. Hätte, hätte, Fahrradkette.