Nevada Primary/Caucus (Feb. 6/8) Megathread

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Couldn't there be real elections on the ballot? Like for local or other state races? That could be a reason to return a ballot even if there's a caucus.

No, the NV state/local primaries are held later in May or something.

These primaries are only for President.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Not sure if I will even follow this farce.

Turnout is low and the only question remaining is, will Haley be beaten by "none of the above"?

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

My predictions:

Democrats

84% Biden
  4% Williamson
  4% Others
  8% NOTA

Republicans

54% NOTA
40% Haley
  6% Others

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

There are 600.000 registered Democratic voters in NV, all of which were sent a mail ballot.

There are 550.000 Republicans, all were sent a mail ballot too.

Non-affiliated and independents/other party were not sent a ballot:

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showpublisheddocument/12952/638427228478800000

94k Ds returned their ballot, were accepted for counting or voted early.
58k Rs did so.

(Actually, a lot more were returned, but not accepted for counting, for various reasons.)

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showpublisheddocument/12958/638427229642430000

Based on these numbers, Democratic turnout could reach 20-25%.

Republican turnout 15%.

Election-day voting today will be relatively weak and won't add much to the early vote.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Does anyone know if registered voters, who are Independents/other party, can vote in-person today?

These 800.000 registered voters were not sent a mail ballot, unlike registered Ds and Rs ...

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

4.000+ mail ballots returned in both primaries have been either rejected (1.500+) or flagged for signature cures (2.500+), which means a part of the latter could still end up in the vote count.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

2% of mail ballots that were sent to the 600k registered Ds and 550k registered Rs came back as "undeliverable".

More Republican addresses were undeliverable than Democratic ones ...

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

My predictions:

Democrats

84% Biden
  4% Williamson
  4% Others
  8% NOTA

Republicans

54% NOTA
40% Haley
  6% Others

Wow, my prediction could be on the spot ... 🤭

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

None of these candidates
6,509 +53.5%53.5%
Nikki Haley
4,961 +40.8%40.8
Mike Pence
479 +3.9%3.9
Tim Scott
124 +1.0%1.0

40% would not be soooo bad for Haley, but obviously most Trump voters skipped the thing and will caucus on Thursday.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Currently 19.4k DEM ballots from Washoe and Biden is well exceeding his 2020 DEM PRIM raw vote numbers in a much more competitive election (at that point), where Biden won a measly 2.8k TV in the County, where there were only something like 23.6k DEM TVs back in '20.

2020 had a low-turnout caucus in NV, right?

Not comparable to a primary.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

None of these candidates
6,509 +53.5%53.5%
Nikki Haley
4,961 +40.8%40.8
Mike Pence
479 +3.9%3.9
Tim Scott
124 +1.0%1.0

40% would not be soooo bad for Haley, but obviously most Trump voters skipped the thing and will caucus on Thursday.

No... PUB total Caucus voters will be much lower than PRIM voters, even if Trump sweeps all of the delegates (As the PUB NV State Party Fixers intended).

Only 70k people voted in the R primary.

Haley got 40%, or 30k.

If caucus turnout is gonna be 40k, Trump wins 90%, he gets more votes than Haley ...

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Biden's only pulling in 61% in Eureka County, 70% in White Pine

But nobody is living there.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

New vote drops

Total

Biden: 90.03% (76,202)
None: 5.66% (4,789)
Williamson: 2.5% (2,117)

None: 60.4% (26,038)
Haley: 33.24% (14,328)

Holy sh**t this is a slaughter

That's basically the whole early/mail-return vote.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Service post:

Dean Phillips is not on the NV ballot, because the filing deadline was Oct. 15 already and he launched his campaign in late October.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Clark County--- DEM 2020--- 70.4k TVs (Biden 20.1%)

Clark County--- DEM 2024--- 63.8k TVs (Biden 90.7%)   *** Quite possible DEM TV PRES voters in '24 exceed those of '20, despite this being a non-competitive DEM PRIM.

The fact that every registered D received a mail ballot was helping turnout, even if it was not competitive this year.

Still, only every 6th registered D bothered to vote ... 100k out of 600k.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

No big changes since I checked yesterday ... only Haley declined a bit.

I don't see a path for her going forward.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Don't forget that today is not just the important NV R-caucus (with Ryan Blinkey!), but also the very important Virginia Islands caucuses where hundreds of votes will be cast ... lol.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

My predictions:

NV-Caucus

93% Trump
  7% Blinkley

VI-Caucus

71% Trump
29% Haley

I think there are no other options to vote for?

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Virgin Islands result:

Trump 73.98% (182)
Haley 26.02% (64)

Awesome!

😁

My predictions:

NV-Caucus

93% Trump
  7% Blinkley

VI-Caucus

71% Trump
29% Haley

I think there are no other options to vote for?

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

A big win for TRUMP!

Donald J. Trump
81 +95.3%95.3%
No delegates—
Ryan Binkley
4 +4.7%4.7
No delegates—
Total reported
85

Amazing!

😺

My predictions:

NV-Caucus

93% Trump
  7% Blinkley

VI-Caucus

71% Trump
29% Haley

I think there are no other options to vote for?

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I'm starting to lose faith that NV will count in time this year. We're now two days out from the election and we're still only at 89% in on the Dem side. Washoe is at 72%. There's no reason these few ballots should not be counted by now.

NV is typically a slow state, even in general elections.

They count most of the votes on election day, but take 1-2 weeks to finish counting the remaining votes.

Other states are much worse, such as CA and NY or AZ, who take 6-8 weeks after election day to produce a final result ...

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

"Fun" fact:

Trump has increased his vote share consecutively in every contest:

51% in Iowa
54% in New Hampshire
63% in the Nevada primary (technically NOTA, but basically Trump)
74% in the Virginia Islands
95% in the Nevada Caucuses

This is peak Trump, while Haley is done.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Eureka County just dumped...

Trump 98% (127 TVs) with an estimated >95% reporting.

Clearly seeing the enthusiasm here.

Biden got 17 votes in Eureka (primary), Trump 124.

Eureka voted for Trump by 88-10 in 2020.

Just going by the primary/caucus numbers, not a lot changed. Except that NOTA and others combine for 5% or more this time. Biden still reaches 10% or more.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Eureka County just dumped...

Trump 98% (127 TVs) with an estimated >95% reporting.

Clearly seeing the enthusiasm here.

Biden got 17 votes in Eureka (primary), Trump 124.

Eureka voted for Trump by 88-10 in 2020.

Just going by the primary/caucus numbers, not a lot changed. Except that NOTA and others combine for 5% or more this time. Biden still reaches 10% or more.

If you include both the R primary/R caucus for Eureka, and give NOTA to Trump, Biden drops to 5% or so.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Eureka County with all 3 contests combined:

82% Trump/NOTA (263 votes, 124+139)
  9% Other Rs (29 votes)
  5% Biden (17 votes)
  3% NOTA-D (10 votes)
  0% Other Ds (1 vote)

Eureka voted 88% Trump, 10% Biden in 2020.