Orange County, California: Rise and Fall (?) of a Conservative Bastion

[Alexander Hamilton]

When Orange goes Democrat, Los Angeles goes Republican.

[Alexander Hamilton]

If Obama wins by a similar or larger margin than in 2008, Orange County will likely go his way.

No.

[Alexander Hamilton]

If Obama wins by a similar or larger margin than in 2008, Orange County will likely go his way.

No.

Why not? Orange County will only become more Hispanic between 2008 and 2012, and McCain only won the county by 2.56%. Any national increase in support for Obama coupled with the increase in minorities will certainly lead to the county flipping even if only narrowly, especially if the Republicans nominate a strong social conservative like Huckabee, Santorum, or Palin who would be massacred in many suburbs. If support for Obama is at a level similar to 2008, the increased hispanicity could very well change the result. Obviously, if Obama is more unpopular in 2012 than in 2008, he will not win the OC.

Republican turn out will be higher. No one showed up to vote for McCain, especially in California. Many Republicans in Orange voted for Obama because they did not trust McCain/Palin. They are conservative pro-business and suburban Republicans. They would be more likely to swing to someone like Mitt Romney in 2012. Also, Orange County is 2008 can basically be considered a fluke, much as Indiana was. McCain accepted public funding, so he neglected Orange County and took IN for granted. A real Republican cnadidate will always go to OC. Plus, Hispanics will not be so Democratic in 2012.

[Alexander Hamilton]

I'd be careful about assuming inevitability over such things.

The electorate is getting browner with every passing year- not only because of minority growth, but because some white Republicans are leaving for places like Nampa, Idaho and Provo, Utah. I don't think this trend is going to reverse itself anytime soon.

Obama may or not carry the OC in 2012 (although, as others believe, I think he would, running against Huckabee or Palin), but a Democratic victory is "inevitable" in the near-future... within the next 20 years, at least.

No.

[Alexander Hamilton]

We're not talking about Bakersfield, buddy.

I spend more time in Orange County than I do in Bakersfield these days.

[Alexander Hamilton]

And...?

Orange County in 2008 was a fluke, much like Indiana was, but also we saw a very depressed Republican turn out in California, even with Proposition Eight on the ballot. 2012 will be more like 2004. Orange County will vote approximately 55% Republican in 2012.

[Alexander Hamilton]

That's nice, but who cares?

Obama may or not carry the OC in 2012 (although, as others believe, I think he would, running against Huckabee or Palin), but a Democratic victory is "inevitable" in the near-future... within the next 20 years, at least.

Unless you believe that Orange County will start getting whiter (lol), I don't see how this doesn't happen.

Hispanics voted overwhelmingly Democratic in 2008 because of the housing and financial crises. That won't happen again. Plus, Hispanics are becoming more conservative on economics as they integrate in to the middle class here.

[Alexander Hamilton]

That's nice, but who cares?

Obama may or not carry the OC in 2012 (although, as others believe, I think he would, running against Huckabee or Palin), but a Democratic victory is "inevitable" in the near-future... within the next 20 years, at least.

Unless you believe that Orange County will start getting whiter (lol), I don't see how this doesn't happen.

Hispanics voted overwhelmingly Democratic in 2008 because of the housing and financial crises. That won't happen again. Plus, Hispanics are becoming more conservative on economics as they integrate in to the middle class here.

According to the last PPP Obama approval poll Latinos approve of his performance 74-21, compared to the overal 49-47. That is 25 points better than the national average. I don't think that judging how Democratic Latinos are based on one approval poll is a good idea but I have not seen a shred of evidence that suggests that Latinos are trending back towards the Republicans.

That was not a CA poll. CA is undergoing a transition, like NJ, where the suburbs and middle class and rural areas are moving back toward the Republicans. They trended left early (during the 90s) when the rest of the country moved right, and it is now being corrected. In fact, valley Hispanics in 2008 elected a white Republican over a Hispanic Democrat, giving the GOP their only pick-up in the state Assembly. Orange County may have trended hard left for 08 but it will return back home soon, along with San Diego and San Bernadino.

[Alexander Hamilton]

And...?

Orange County in 2008 was a fluke, much like Indiana was, but also we saw a very depressed Republican turn out in California, even with Proposition Eight on the ballot. 2012 will be more like 2004. Orange County will vote approximately 55% Republican in 2012.

Orange County did not have depressed turnout in this election so your turnout hypothesis is wrong. You are right about the the housing crisis, but let's not overstate it here. Obama did very well in places that weren't as impacted by the crisis. Republicans are quickly losing ground among the educated middle class and if that trend continues OC will fall into democratic hands. In southern California, the places Republicans will rebound in are the inland areas.

Depressed Republican turn out.

[Alexander Hamilton]

That's nice, but who cares?

Obama may or not carry the OC in 2012 (although, as others believe, I think he would, running against Huckabee or Palin), but a Democratic victory is "inevitable" in the near-future... within the next 20 years, at least.

Unless you believe that Orange County will start getting whiter (lol), I don't see how this doesn't happen.

Hispanics voted overwhelmingly Democratic in 2008 because of the housing and financial crises. That won't happen again. Plus, Hispanics are becoming more conservative on economics as they integrate in to the middle class here.

According to the last PPP Obama approval poll Latinos approve of his performance 74-21, compared to the overal 49-47. That is 25 points better than the national average. I don't think that judging how Democratic Latinos are based on one approval poll is a good idea but I have not seen a shred of evidence that suggests that Latinos are trending back towards the Republicans.

That was not a CA poll. CA is undergoing a transition, like NJ, where the suburbs and middle class and rural areas are moving back toward the Republicans. They trended left early (during the 90s) when the rest of the country moved right, and it is now being corrected. In fact, valley Hispanics in 2008 elected a white Republican over a Hispanic Democrat, giving the GOP their only pick-up in the state Assembly. Orange County may have trended hard left for 08 but it will return back home soon, along with San Diego and San Bernadino.

What is this based on?

Based on trends, demographics, the fact that Jim Costa can't even visit small farm towns anymore, and an overall GOP rebound in CA and nationwide.

[Alexander Hamilton]

And...?

Orange County in 2008 was a fluke, much like Indiana was, but also we saw a very depressed Republican turn out in California, even with Proposition Eight on the ballot. 2012 will be more like 2004. Orange County will vote approximately 55% Republican in 2012.

Orange County did not have depressed turnout in this election so your turnout hypothesis is wrong. You are right about the the housing crisis, but let's not overstate it here. Obama did very well in places that weren't as impacted by the crisis. Republicans are quickly losing ground among the educated middle class and if that trend continues OC will fall into democratic hands. In southern California, the places Republicans will rebound in are the inland areas.

Depressed Republican turn out.

And what is this based upon?

Lack of enthusiasm for John McCain, nationwide low Republican turnout, and the fact that Obama was able to get 48% in Orange County. How much clearer could it get?

[Alexander Hamilton]

So like, McCain an ex-Pow was not able to get a county with a large military veteran population? Explain this to me...

Does OC really have a large veteran population? It may have been true once but I am not sure if that is so anymore. Remember a lot of older whites from California have been leaving the state for years. These people live in Arizona, Nevada and Idaho these days.

He's referring to SD, which McCain did lose by a slim margin.