I doubt we’re gonna see such a disparity between Biden and down ballot Dems on Election Day. Their numbers will probably converge at some point by then.
Be careful what you wish for. More likely that downballot converges on the presidential numbers than vice versa.
I can see specific popular incumbents like Baldwin (who ran ahead of Wisconsin Democrats in general in 2018) or Casey over-performing, but I continue to really doubt that congressional Republicans taken as a whole will run behind Trump.
More of a 2022 scenario where Republican overconfidence leads to a ton of whiffs on Senate and House races by nominating bad/flawed candidates. The residency issues in most of the competitive Senate races—while not Dr. Oz level bad—aren’t good and would lead to an underperformance on that alone (WI, PA, MI, NV). Then you have…Kari Lake. On the House side, the underperformances of Trump are likely to come from either weak opponents (Joe Kent, Nick Begich, Paul Junge) or popular incumbent Democrats (Golden, Peltola, Kaptur). Whereas “normal” Republicans probably tend to match or exceed Trump’s performance.
That theory fails why the GOP did equally bad in the NV and CO races.
Or all the House races in the same states.
The GOP did well in the Midterms only in very narrow georgraphical areas along the coasts.
