New Hampshire Primary (January 23) Megathread

[oldtimer]

Prediction:

Trump - 52%.
Haley - 42%
DeSantis - 6%. 

My prediction too.

[oldtimer]

Im just curious, where does the angry NH women meme originate from? I need to know.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/jan/12/hillaryclinton.uselections2008

"Hill's Angels - how angry women of New Hampshire saved Clinton"

Basically a combination of New Hampshire's very loopsided gender gap + it's almost exclusively female congressional representation + New England's moral crusades.

In short I think it's political slang for what americans call "Karen's".

[oldtimer]

Nikki Haley needs to be deported from the USA!

That's what Voters should do, deport her!

You're continuing to be a lunatic post DeSantis dropout.

And you continuing to be a Trump Fan Boy.

2016 declares that Joe Biden should deport every single MAGA Voter. That also means putting Trump in exile for good.

Well if you continue to declare (in the 3rd person too) that Haley, Trump and their voters should be deported, who's left ?

Don't forget Haley voters are the Democrats, that leaves just the 3% who voted 3rd party in 2020.

[oldtimer]

I’ll go against the grain here a bit. I think that the increased GOP “turnout” (or uptake, more likely) we’re seeing is indeed good for Haley, but bad for Biden. Granted, I don’t think much should be gleaned from Biden’s performance here no matter the results.

Why?

It’s just a hunch based on vibes, but I could see some Dem leaners crossing over to vote Haley to stop Trump. Anyone that’s committed to voting Phillips or Williamson probably is set in that, whereas the Biden voters seem like a softer target for Haley due to the lack of a truly competitive Dem primary and the idea that Biden is inevitable, but that there’s at least a minuscule chance to stop Trump.

I remember that's what sunk Sanders in 2016 in Illinois and Missouri.

He told his voters that Trump must be stopped, so they voted in the GOP primary and not for Sanders, costing him the nomination but not stopping Trump.

[oldtimer]

Questionable accuracy since it's a British pollster but the Daily Mail is claiming their poll that had Trump up by 20 had him up by 40 points on the final day of fieldwork.

DeSantis' departure from the race has added rocket fuel to Donald Trump,' J.L. Partners co-founder James Johnson told DailyMail.com.

'He posted an exceptional 40-point lead over Nikki Haley in our final day of fieldwork – all after the DeSantis drop.

'This means our final poll taking all days of fieldwork into account gives Trump an advantage of 20 points.

'Add in the fact Haley voters are lacking enthusiasm, and Trump looks set for a landslide victory. The whiff of inevitability now surrounds Donald Trump. If this poll is accurate, then the primary contest ends tonight.'

Daily Mail report on their exclusive poll

Any blowout beyond the current polls' margin surely ends the primary. Wouldn't this then be the longest general election campaign in history?

Well if there is momentum in favour of Trump, here is the view of an ex-Haley NH voter and Donor that might help explain it:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/01/22/new-hampshire-primary-voter-00136850

A good read while we are waiting results, and don't forget this was a Haley voter and donor in N.H.

[oldtimer]

According to the Exit Polls, just under half are Republican in the GOP primary:

Republicans 47
Indies 45
Democrats 8

[oldtimer]

Haley would need to win around 55% of Indies to win.

[oldtimer]

Satisfied if ___ won the nomination?

Satisfied/Not Satisfied

Trump: 56/43
Haley: 55/43

It does look like a tossup, the polls where way out.

[oldtimer]

Did Biden win ? 49/49

So Trump will probably get at least 49%

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1749918276652605677
https://twitter.com/NikkiHaleyFan02/status/1749918286655926694
Do the math.

52-48 ?

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1749918276652605677
https://twitter.com/NikkiHaleyFan02/status/1749918286655926694
Do the math.

52-48 ?

Conservatives break 71-17 Trump and are 63% of the electorate, while moderates break 71-22 Haley and are 31% of the electorate. Liberals are 6% of the electorate and are likely even more pro-Haley. This gives 18.83 minus how much liberals break for Haley. Probably something like 14-15 points Trump.

If they lump somewhat conservatives with very conservatives, yes it would be 51.5 to 40.7 for Trump, if I give all 8% of liberals to Haley.

[oldtimer]

In the Iowa entrance poll, 66 percent said that Biden did not win the 2020 election legitimately and only 29% said that he won legitimately.

Whereas in the New Hampshire exit poll on CNN now they are discussing that it is even with 49% saying that Biden did win legitimately and 49% said he did not.

Haley got 19% in Iowa, so not all of the legitimately won.

Trump+DeSantis+Vivek got 80%.

[oldtimer]

Immigration:

Deport 51
Offer legal status 45

I think it's a proxy issue for Trump/Haley.

[oldtimer]

In the Iowa entrance poll, 66 percent said that Biden did not win the 2020 election legitimately and only 29% said that he won legitimately.

Whereas in the New Hampshire exit poll on CNN now they are discussing that it is even with 49% saying that Biden did win legitimately and 49% said he did not.

Haley got 19% in Iowa, so not all of the legitimately won.

Trump+DeSantis+Vivek got 80%.

True, but it's not like Trump won the proportion of the "legitimately won" vote that did not vote for Haley. They primarily voted for other candidates (mainly DeSantis). Trump was absolutely demolished among voters in Iowa who thought Biden legitimately won - Trump only got 11% of them.

I would bet that most of the previously DeSantis supporting "legitimately won" vote goes to Haley, while most of the previously DeSantis supporting "did not legitimately win" vote goes to Trump.

Well if Trump gets the 49 who think Biden did not win +11% from the other 49, he's at 54.

[oldtimer]

Here we go solid numbers.

Satisfied with Trump winning 56%

Trump voters 98%
Haley voters 11%

Satisfied with Haley winning 55%

Trump voters 22%
Haley voters 92%

[oldtimer]

Immigration:

Deport 51
Offer legal status 45

I think it's a proxy issue for Trump/Haley.

I mean I could see some Haley supporters picking "deport"...

I don't see any Democrat would pick deport.

[oldtimer]

What if the race is called at closing despite these exits

The networks will never call it until dawn in a close-ish race, even if Trump leads by 5% with 95% in.

[oldtimer]

The leaks from the campaigns do not track exit polls.

Haley camp: "Less than 15"
Trump camp: "More than 7"

[oldtimer]

AP Votecast/Early exit Poll :

https://apnews.com/article/how-why-new-hampshire-voted-primary-election-6768e1ae04ce2b88d64773a9672d04d8

Only 4 in 10 democrats say Biden is too old. Terrible for Phillips.

AP is giving a very different picture, more anti-Biden more pro-Trump.

[oldtimer]

AP Votecast/Early exit Poll :

https://apnews.com/article/how-why-new-hampshire-voted-primary-election-6768e1ae04ce2b88d64773a9672d04d8

Only 4 in 10 democrats say Biden is too old. Terrible for Phillips.

AP is giving a very different picture, more anti-Biden more pro-Trump.

Were AP, CNN or NBC most accurate for Iowa?

I think it had Trump at 49 (edison), to 52 (AP).

[oldtimer]

Trump is pretty clearly gonna win tonight and I'm not even sure it'll be that close.

I don't know, it looks like a general election not a primary.

Biden voters are simply voting in the GOP primary for Haley as a proxy for Biden, so if Biden is way ahead of Trump in NH then Trump ought to be in trouble.

[oldtimer]

How is it possible that Chris Wallace is the only one making sense on the CNN panel? Even if Haley does well tonight, this matters little considering that Republican voters are going for Trump by huge margins and the rest of the contests are only Republican voters.

Because things change. If she does well tonight, some of those Repubs for Trump can swing over to her

Let me make it simple:

Haley=Biden '24 voters
Trump=Trump '24 voters

They don't overlap.

[oldtimer]

First Result:

Trump 55%
Haley 25%

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1749949599324745927?t=jF4MhdvRdEHJkOlaWaMF...

I kinda agree.

That Manchester result on CNN pointed to a Trump 10 maybe 15% lead, but still early.

[oldtimer]

Pretty crazy to think of NH's GOP primary in 2016 and what it meant for Trump vs. tonight. Like, the coalitions within the party have changed so much even with it still just being a Trump vs not Trump election.

It's just that the Democrat primary in NH is basically not held, so Biden voters simply voted in the Republican primary.

The electorate is very much like a general election electorate not a republican one.