🇬🇷 Greek politics and elections

[oldtimer]

Can Greek posters explain who’d vote for Victory rather than Velopoulos’s party? Is it 2012-2019 Golden dawn vs 2012-2019 independent Greeks? Or more complex?

Curious about this too. There are quite a few seemingly different "streams" on the Greek right-wing/far-right. May 2012 was a great example. ANEL got 10.62%, Golden Dawn 6.97%, LAOS 2.89%, and Recreate Greece 2.15%. For a while, the right-populist/far-right vote seemed to be split between Golden Dawn and ANEL but now it's fragmented again. Is it an ideological difference or a personalistic one?

The election of May 2012 revealed the size of each ideological block within Greece.

Usually they are obscured by the large inner party coalitions of the big 2.

The only ideological difference with NIKI is that Velopoulos also peddles ancient greek pagan lore mixed with Star Wars stuff, while NIKI is pure christian.

[oldtimer]

Can Greek posters explain who’d vote for Victory rather than Velopoulos’s party? Is it 2012-2019 Golden dawn vs 2012-2019 independent Greeks? Or more complex?

Have you ever seen Ancient Aliens on the History Channel ?

That's basically the distinction between those who believe it's greek versions to be true,  and just the standard " Have you heard of our Lord and Saviour ? " stuff.

Here is an example (someone needs to translate this stuff to english) of a greek version of Ancient Aliens, which even features the VP of the ND party Adonis Georgiadis making the case that the Mayans, the Incas, and the Chinese are Ancient Greeks:

If you want a laugh, here is a long list of titles of some of their publications that greek satirists really rubbed, try and find which are the real books:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

1.Our time will come soon: 2012 and 2024.

2.China: The first greek empire.

3.Christianity in Ancient Greece: before Jesus was born.

4.Plato: The first Evangelist.

5.Global Warming and Zionist conspiracies.

6.The Protocols of the Elders of Zion.

7.Putin's secret teddybear.

8.Sirius rose and the sphinx smiled.

9.Our father nation: Greeks came from the star Sirius.

10.The secret Gospels: Truth and Heresy.

11.The Generators of Space.

12.The Secrets of the Pyramids of life.

13.Falklands, the secret of the Greeks.

14.The Greeks of the Bible.

15.Planet Dioxin.

16.Traditions of Sirius.

17.Prometheus returns.

18.Atlantis: the files of the State of Poseidon.

19.Finding the Lost Ark.

20.They live Among Us: Putin and Trump vs Agenda 2030.

21.Donaldious Dacius: A greek.

22.The lost States of Mars.

23.The awakening of the red bear.

24.St.Alien the Galaxian.

25.The Known Unknowns and the Star of David.

26.Abraham the Wizard.

27.The Great Lie: In the shadow of the Great Greekism.

28.Jesus and Zeus.

29.Documents: The revelations of the unknown moments of Christ.

30.The Truth about Putin.

31.Alexander: The greatest of the Greeks.

32.All Ancient Greeks where Gays.

You get the drift, like what is the percentage of voters that believe in the Ancient Aliens stuff or Televangelism in America ?

[oldtimer]

Can Greek posters explain who’d vote for Victory rather than Velopoulos’s party? Is it 2012-2019 Golden dawn vs 2012-2019 independent Greeks? Or more complex?

Have you ever seen Ancient Aliens on the History Channel ?

That's basically the distinction between those who believe it's greek versions to be true,  and just the standard " Have you heard of our Lord and Saviour ? " stuff.

Here is an example (someone needs to translate this stuff to english) of a greek version of Ancient Aliens, which even features the VP of the ND party Adonis Georgiadis making the case that the Mayans, the Incas, and the Chinese are Ancient Greeks:

If you want a laugh, here is a long list of titles of some of their publications that greek satirists really rubbed, try and find which are the real books:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

1.Our time will come soon: 2012 and 2024.

2.China: The first greek empire.

3.Christianity in Ancient Greece: before Jesus was born.

4.Plato: The first Evangelist.

5.Global Warming and Zionist conspiracies.

6.The Protocols of the Elders of Zion.

7.Putin's secret teddybear.

8.Sirius rose and the sphinx smiled.

9.Our father nation: Greeks came from the star Sirius.

10.The secret Gospels: Truth and Heresy.

11.The Generators of Space.

12.The Secrets of the Pyramids of life.

13.Falklands, the secret of the Greeks.

14.The Greeks of the Bible.

15.Planet Dioxin.

16.Traditions of Sirius.

17.Prometheus returns.

18.Atlantis: the files of the State of Poseidon.

19.Finding the Lost Ark.

20.They live Among Us: Putin and Trump vs Agenda 2030.

21.Donaldious Dacius: A greek.

22.The lost States of Mars.

23.The awakening of the red bear.

24.St.Alien the Galaxian.

25.The Known Unknowns and the Star of David.

26.Abraham the Wizard.

27.The Great Lie: In the shadow of the Great Greekism.

28.Jesus and Zeus.

29.Documents: The revelations of the unknown moments of Christ.

30.The Truth about Putin.

31.Alexander: The greatest of the Greeks.

32.All Ancient Greeks where Gays.

You get the drift, like what is the percentage of voters that believe in the Ancient Aliens stuff or Televangelism in America ?

"13.Falklands, the secret of the Greeks."
This one made me do a double take.
Like, lol...

If you thought it was a real book then you guessed correctly, it's on offer for 2 bucks:

https://metabook.gr/books/fwklant-to-mistiko-ton-ellinon-44868#offers

[oldtimer]

I read it in the Greek Elects twitter page. Why were pollsters afraid of being bullied by Syriza if they showed the real voting intentions rather than the ones they presented that overestimated the party?

Well the accuracy of greek opinion pollsters has traditionally been crap, how else can you explain that the Exit Poll was equally crap ?

I think it's just an excuse to hide their crapness, the press itsn't buying it.

For example in 2012 it was revealed that ex-defence minister Tsochatsopoulos had in his files a 270k euro project than among others had the purchace of madeup polling by Alco or Rass polling companies:

https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/141893/diaries-reveal-ex-minister-wanted-to-restore-reputation/

https://www.tovima.gr/2012/05/24/politics/arxeio-a-tsoxatzopoyloy-o-nikos-kai-ta-270-000-gia-epikoinwniaki-proboli/

[oldtimer]

National Creation (ED) has been dissolved. It polled at some point between 1-2%, but it ended with just 0.8%. It is now asking their voters to vote ND.

https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1663515267710763015
My hunch is that number of parties running will probably decrease in the repeat election.

It costs around 75k euros to run.

According to the latest figures from the Bank of Greece only around 1% of the population have savings larger than that.

Which is one of the causes of populist backlashes, parties being run by very wealthy people with little connections to the 99%. (Now I sound like Bernie)

Though there is some public funding of parties in Greece once they surpass 1% of vote share.

[oldtimer]

Before I go radio silent due to the elections, this is an update on the campaign:

PASOK and Tsipras are in a competition over who will have the worst campaign ever.

Both have their candidates talk on national TV over random tax increases, they say they will increase taxes by a lot, but not on who or for what.

Mitsotakis is trying to campaign against the church out of fear that NIKI might cost him his majority , but that effort has stalled due to cold reception from christians, so he cancelled his field trips to all monastaries.

And due to the implosion of both PASOK and SYRIZA campaigns, it's unnecessary for him to antagonise conservatives further.

The picture is that PASOK and SYRIZA are down, all others are up.

There is a potential for the most combined center-right wing result since 1974.

The economy has slid into recession, that might become a talking point if the 2 largest opposition parties ever get organised and stopped fooling around.

[oldtimer]

Before I go radio silent due to the elections, this is an update on the campaign:

PASOK and Tsipras are in a competition over who will have the worst campaign ever.

Both have their candidates talk on national TV over random tax increases, they say they will increase taxes by a lot, but not on who or for what.

Mitsotakis is trying to campaign against the church out of fear that NIKI might cost him his majority , but that effort has stalled due to cold reception from christians, so he cancelled his field trips to all monastaries.

And due to the implosion of both PASOK and SYRIZA campaigns, it's unnecessary for him to antagonise conservatives further.

The picture is that PASOK and SYRIZA are down, all others are up.

There is a potential for the most combined center-right wing result since 1974.

The economy has slid into recession, that might become a talking point if the 2 largest opposition parties ever get organised and stopped fooling around.

This entire post is pure nonsense. It doesn't contain a single truthful statement.

"Torpedoes away"

https://en.rua.gr/2023/06/01/greece-is-experiencing-the-most-silent-pre-election-period-of-all-time/

"The rampant tax chatter that first hooked SYRIZA to Katrugalos-Fotios and then PASOK to Chronopoulou-Dudoni raises legitimate questions.

One politician backpedaled, saying that he was sardonic, another said that these were his personal views"

https://www.iefimerida.gr/english/mitsotakis-campaigning-drama-patriotism-measured-actual-results-not-theory

"Mitsotakis addressed himself to voters who supported small, extreme-right parties linked to the church, and said that "patriotism in theory is easy, but if it is responsible and practical, it is measured through actual results." Greek Orthodoxy and faith should not be used to divide the Greek people, he added, and voters should not bring the church into politics."


https://twitter.com/business/status/1666390062383112194

Always a pleasure L.L.

[oldtimer]

The agenda today has switched towards hospitals, because of how decrepit social services have become and 2 women died waiting for ambulances in the past few days, the source is untraslated since it's fresh:  https://www.iefimerida.gr/politiki/tsipras-apo-laiko-katarreysi-toy-esy

And party debates are scheduled for the 15th, although this time it's unlikely that they will be shown by private TV channels due to lack of interest.
 
https://hellenicnews.com/televised-debate-of-party-leaders-to-be-held-on-june-15/

[oldtimer]

And the economy hasn't slid into a recession by any definition. A couple of days ago it was announced that it grew 2.1% in the 2Q.

In the 1st Quarter of 2023, the Greek economy grew 2.1% annually, compared with the Q1 2022, but dropped to -0.1% compared with the Q4 of 2022. It is not, for now, in a "technical recession" situation, which is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

More in here: https://countryeconomy.com/gdp/greece

I concede on that techincallity.

[oldtimer]

To put some more meat on why PASOK has been in deep trouble this past week on taxes (in contrast to those who deny it), it was their own spokepeople on live national TV that dug their own hole, here are 2 car crash interview examples:

The translation of the critical moment goes like this from 0:16 :

-So you will increase some taxes and lower others, right ?
-We will increase some taxes and lower some taxes.
-Which taxes are you going to raise?
-We will increase the taxes that practically hurt the middle class.

Next day she comes on live TV again to say "I misspoke" and digs deeper:

At 3:54

-What companies are you going to tax?
-We will tax large companies.
-Which large companies?
-150
-Which ones ?
-I can't tell you. "silence" No I won't tell, why should I tell you ?

[oldtimer]

The Healthcare issue has it's first political victim.
ND MP Spiros Pneumaticos has been shown the door by Mitsotakis after his public comments about cancer patients and cost benefits of their treatment.

https://newsbeezer.com/greeceeng/elections-2023-spyros-pneumatikos-does-not-participate-in-the-nd-votes/

It has provided some relief for the opposition after a disasterous 2 weeks over taxation.

The press is estimating the following:

Mitsotakis 43-45%
Tsipras 13-19%
PASOK 9-16%
Communists 7-8%
Konstantopoulou 4-5%
NIKKI 4-5%
Velopoulos 3-5%

There is very high uncertainty over SYRIZA vs PASOK depending on the pundits, and most of those estimates where before the healthcare issue blew up in the past few days.

Anyway the press had it wrong the last time.

I'm now going radio silent until election day.

[oldtimer]

Where are Spartans even getting their main support from? I'd have assumed NIKI or EL, but they haven't lost any ground really.

Nazis who abstained last time.

[oldtimer]

Since the winner is pretermined here is the first greek exit poll leak, the greek exit poll leaks are usually reliable about the greek exit poll, but greek exit polls are not reliable so beware.

Mitsotakis 42%
Tsipras 18%
PASOK 11.5%
Communists 8%
Bucket of small parties 2.5-3.5%

[oldtimer]

Well there is nothing much going on, so to fill time until 7pm local time here is a collection of ads from the 1993 election:

Generic commercial about Mitsotakis Snr:

Translation:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Ahhhh Mitsotaki
In tin foil.

Inedible, ehhhh.

Mitsotakis, a whole foods PM.
Now in an economy package of 5 cods

In tin foil, ehhhh.

Positive ads:

Negative ads:

Remember why you got rid of Papandreou.

Mitsotakis is a virus that damages your health.

The ads didn't change a single vote because they just reflected a preexisting opinion of well known records.

The most catastrophic advertising campaign and the only one that changed an election outcome that I've ever seen in a greek election was by LAE in 2015.

[oldtimer]

And here are those LAE ads from 2015, the only ones that changed votes, keep in mind this was their main advertising drive:

Konstantopoulou threatens a poor guy to agree with her.

That's after the press published that she physically assaulted a man at a gas station to change her tire, "UberKaren" style.

Lafazanis takes a cab to the Mint.

That's after the pro-europeans accused him of a trip to the Mint.

No wonder they started from high teens and ended up bellow 3%.

I read that their main ads guy was a lefty director who wanted to make art or trolling or something stereotypical of comically mentally unstable art guy with a beret.

[oldtimer]

The most catastrophic advertising campaign and the only one that changed an election outcome that I've ever seen in a greek election was by LAE in 2015.

What was special about that one?

They didn't had a well known public record, a black slate mostly.

So their terrible catastrophic ads just gave the impression that they had no program or ideas, that they were just a bunch of loonies.

I posted them just for you to have a look.

[oldtimer]

The most catastrophic advertising campaign and the only one that changed an election outcome that I've ever seen in a greek election was by LAE in 2015.

What was special about that one?

They didn't had a well known public record, a black slate mostly.

So their terrible catastrophic ads just gave the impression that they had no program or ideas, that they were just a bunch of loonies.

I posted them just for you to have a look.

Ah. Thanks.

Like who makes a genuine ad where they threaten the voter/customer to vote/buy or else ?

Not even mobsters would do TV ads like that.

And no political program, no proposals, nothing.
Just comedicly abstract art performance.

The equivalent of having Biden just eat ice cream on TV saying nothing while brandishing a gun at you.

[oldtimer]

Turnout at 10:30, around 5 hours ago, was at 11.29%.

At 13:30, 29.13% of voters had cast a ballot, 2.39% less than at the same time in the May election.

The weather so far is summery, but there are severe thunderstorms popping up in the countryside.

And the election winner has been known since the last election, turnout should be low.

[oldtimer]

Update on exit poll leaks.

Mitsotakis 42.5%
Tsipras 17.5%
Pasok 11.5%
Communists 8%
Bucket of small parties 2.5-4%

[oldtimer]

Turnout at 10:30, around 5 hours ago, was at 11.29%.

At 13:30, 29.13% of voters had cast a ballot, 2.39% less than at the same time in the May election.

If the participation rate is only 2-3% lower than May then I will be very pleased.
We are deep into the summer season and there is zero suspense about the winner.

There is almost no one at my polling station at this time of the day.

From past experience there will be a wave of voters after 5pm local, so I have opportunities to fool around for another hour or two.

[oldtimer]

I was very surprised about the Spartans, everyone was gossiping about them in my precinct.

[oldtimer]

The exit poll has been leaked, the only difference from lunchtime is the Spartans are at 5%.

[oldtimer]

The exit poll has the total for Right wing parties up at about 11%, the highest since 2012.
The Left is stable at 14%.
The Center Left has shrunk while the Center Right has gained, a move of about 2%.

[oldtimer]

Now I can tell what happened during the last 2 weeks:

The sinking of a migrant ship in the middle of the sea allowed the left to go on the attack.

However a few days later the murder-rape case of a Polish female worker in a tourist island by apparently a Bangladeshi migrant deflated the left again and boosted the right.

On top of that the tourism sector looks like is going through a crisis, and suddently the possibility of hard economic times became a topic in the last few days.

ND allied media tried furiously to split the vote by promoting the Spartans while dumbing on all small parties, so that all of them would get less than the 3% threshold and boost ND seat count.

Tsipras said that regardless of the result he would never resign (no surprise there).

[oldtimer]

https://www.megatv.com/live/

Live "Mobster" Lawyer vs Communist PMS Lesbian screaming match over the election results.