California post-election analysis thread

[oldtimer]

I like to judge how things go in California based on just 3 counties.

Imperial County, most hispanic in California.

2022 Gov: Rep 44%
2021 Gov Recall: Rep 40%
2018 Gov: Rep 38 %
2014 Gov: Rep 36%

Santa Clara County, Silicon Valley.

2022 Gov: Rep 30%
2021 Gov Recall: Rep 27%
2018 Gov: Rep 29%
2014 Gov: Rep 27%


Ventura County, typical Los Angeles suburb.

2022 Gov: Rep 45%
2021 Gov Recall: Rep 43%
2018 Gov: Rep 44%
2014 Gov: Rep 47%

This tells me that Republicans have a slow but steady gain among California minorities, and Democrats may have stalled with California whites but with good leads.

The kick is Los Angeles is a larger share of the California vote than 8 years ago, so Democrats get more votes from same margins, cancelling most of the Republican gains in other areas of the state.