PA-SEN 2024 megathread

[oldtimer]

There's a tiny part of me that thinks this is unfortunate; Mastriano would've lost a head-to-head primary to McCormick and the contrast would've been very helpful. In general, Republicans who beat high-profile further-right primary opponents in 2022 tended to overperform (even when they themselves were too far to the right for their constituency -- consider Lee Zeldin beating Andrew Giuliani here).

That said, McCormick should be able to sew up the nomination now and will be able to personally outspend Casey. The most recent poll (which, if anything, had some modestly unfavorable assumptions for Republicans) had him down only 5 in spite of a name recognition shortfall. Clearly a winnable race in an environment as good or better than 2020.

I’m not that surprised that Mastriano decided not to run. When he ran for Governor in 2022, he didn’t have to give up his state senate seat. If he ran for U.S. Senate this year, he’d have to give up his seat. So why make a long shot (at best) run against Bob Casey when you could instead likely win re-election to the seat you currently hold?

I believe he had also intimidated that he would take the primary performance of his chosen state Supreme Court candidate, Patricia McCullough, as an indicator of his popularity in the PAGOP. McCullough did better-than-expected to some extent, but she still lost 46-54 to a more moderate candidate, so that can't have been a strong sign.

According to the polls McCormick would lose to Casey by double digits.

I have doubts that McCormick is going to win the nomination anyway, that 80% of the anti-liberal GOP primary vote is going to gravitate to a less liberal option.

McCormick is just not popular enough to win a popularity contest.

[oldtimer]

I didn't even realize he said this - he's in even worse shape than I even thought lol

https://twitter.com/andyvolosky/status/1701260546916372728

McCormick's only liberal position is that he's against Trump, that's it.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1755321089574457778

This dude is gonna lose by 10 even if Trump wins.
He's such a disaster.

I quite never understood why so many Republicans in 2022 thought he would have been a better candidate than Oz. He's probably even worse in terms of electability.

It's part of the longterm GOP civil war along class lines.

Congressional GOP Leaders prefer the candidates they are comfortable with, even if those are unelectable in those races.

[oldtimer]

I still am kind of surprised at the lack of ... anything from the McCormick campaign. He's unopposed in the primary, but you would think he'd giving out signs and getting the word out early or something. There's nothing, no presence whatsoever. Casey doesn't have much either, but he's also a established figure, while McCormick has a lot of work to do.

Not only that, but given McCormick's high fundraising (from rich people), he has enough money to start running some ads. He could even try and define Casey a bit early; but he's literally doing nothing.

I'm not expecting him to go full fledged in March, but the primary is already next month and he's just... there

Remember how Mastriano didn't start running ads on TV until literally two weeks before the 2022-GOV election? And he wasn't even in those ads save for "I'm Doug Mastriano and I approve this message". 

Yep, which did make sense given that he was broke. I'm more surprised that McCormick isn't doing anything given he has some $$$ but maybe he's just stockpiling it for now. Honestly, Dems/Casey should take this time where he's not doing anything and start defining him on the airwaves imo. Oz him.

There could be a small possibility that he simply gives up and doesn't run at all.

Why would anyone spend his fortune to lose by 10-15 points ?

In any case the GOP should have plan B in case McCormick throws the towel.

[oldtimer]

Why would anyone spend his fortune to lose by 10-15 points ?

Ask Dr. Oz.

(Yeah he didn't lose by 10-15 points but a loss is a loss.)

But before the primary the possibility that Oz would win was 50-50.

And even after the primary when it was obvious Oz would lose to Fetterman, there was still some good polling for him, and the theory that Trump maybe was able to push him over the finish line.

Here McCormick has nothing to support his run.