California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[oldtimer]

I’m surprised there’s no big name in the Armenia community being thrown around for Schiff’s seat considering the massive amount of Armenians there.

Don't give Kardashians ideas.

Anyway we know that Schiff is the favourite for the Senate so they should be a fight for his old house seat.

[oldtimer]

Still time to implement IRV. A contested primary makes a dem lockout a slightly larger possibility. Seriously guys, change the law before you get burned. 

The most likely outcome is Schiff getting half to 2/3 of the 60% of the D vote, and Republicans splitting their 40% in 2 or more almost equal piecies.

So it's almost impossible for Democrats to get locked out.

[oldtimer]

I think if Garvey plays his cards right there may be an opening for him to win the special election. Schiff is guaranteed the 6 year Senate seat, but the 1-2 month one I think Garvey has a very small window of oppurtunity for. He is doing 5 points better in the special election, and is likely more popular than Schiff in the state politics aside. If he can succesfully make the case, enough people might be fine with a symbolic R Senator for 2 months before Schiff takes over for the rest of 6 years. It's a meaningless race though but it's not like Garvey has anything better to do.

The best he can do is get over 40%.