If Romney loses renomination could he pull a Lieberman 2006 and try running for re-election as a third party candidate, or would Utah law prevent that?
Alternatively, Romney doesn't even bother running in a GOP primary and just runs Indy from the start. Not likely, though that would be a way to get around that.
If this was some CT-2006 redux, the Dem candidate would still get around 10% of the vote, with Romney comes out on top with coalition of Dems + NeverTrump GOPers, winning something like 49-40-10%.
Eggs McMuffin (I've got to use that catchy nickname) got 43%, with Romney's tacit support but:
1. Against an incumbent Republican.
2. In a Midterm where the College vote share is higher than in a Presidential one.
Lets say incumbency is worth 10% and Turnout sheds 5%.
It would be very close, at 48 each, a Democrat would play the spoiler for Romney.
But Romney's only reason for being in the Senate is to vote against the Trump Administration, if Trump doesn't look like winning in 2024 there is no reason for him to run.
