Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[oldtimer]

It simply means what we all can see.

China is by far no1 in Industry, Trade, and Construction in the world, so it's logical for them
 to also have the largest money supply because of all the transactions.

By all appearances the Chinese economy probably overtook America around the late 2000's, even if no one wants to admit it.

You only have to look at the number and condition of their cities compared to America's.

China's official numbers are bogus, and even the top leadership admit as such.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-wikileaks-idUSTRE6B527D20101206

A study of satellite imagery of night lights also provides hints at the scale of fudging of official economic numbers in all dictatorships. The more repressive a dictatorship, the greater the fudging of numbers. You'll see there are no countries where official economic numbers are fudged to be less than reality.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/09/29/a-study-of-lights-at-night-suggests-dictators-lie-about-economic-growth

As for construction, well, even the top leadership admit that overbuilding has become a systemic crisis. There are now enough empty homes to house the entire population of Germany, Italy, France, and the UK combined, all in a country where the population is declining. And that has been at the heart of what appears to be the boom: money is printed to fund construction projects which could never be occupied.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-property-bust-compounds-economic-pain-11674123815

Here are some real numbers, about the real incomes of real people:

https://twitter.com/alvinfoo/status/1411723958072659970?t=gXIidAfVBFFigBgyOqPl3g&s=09

China's median income is, being very generous, below $4000 per year. Less than 10% of the population have an income above $9200 per year, which even in the Chinese social consciousness, is considered the bare minimum for a new graduate. This means that China is, in reality, a desperately poor country for all but the top 5%. These fancy skyscrapers are of no relevance to the other 95%.

So, given all these facts (massive fudging of economic numbers, that much of the boom was a fictitious bubble, the eye-watering income inequality), the additional fact that China has been printing money at the fastest pace in human history doesn't bode well for its future. Appearances are deceiving.

Anyway, enough about this tangent.

The chinese can't be falsifing the trade figures of the West, and it's western statistics that I rely upon.

[oldtimer]

Lots of rumours that the long touted big Ukrainian offensive has either started or will very soon.

Just looking at the weather reports it probably won't start for at least another 3 weeks.

It will be too muddy for any tanks, unless they use pick-up trucks.

[oldtimer]

I think the most important rumours are the ones that the ukranian army has crossed the Dnieper river at Kherson.

The Dnieper has never been a substantial military obstacle, both the Germans and the Soviets crossed it without much of a problem in WW2.

It's too wide to defend it's banks and not wide enough to use naval vessels to block crossings,  another failure of the russian army to anticipate the inevitable.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1649415260145696768
An interesting thread breaking down the state of the battle of Bakmut

It's nothing that we haven't seen before.

If you look at the pictures, Artillery has a very low accuracy, probably 3%.

It's very rare one shell hits something, particularly if it moves fast, that's why WW1 lasted until the armoured car was used in large numbers.

Now NATO Rocket Artillery has a 100% accuracy, it never misses a stationary target thanks to all the satellite guidance systems, so until Russia does a "Starfish Prime" on all low earth satellites, or invents the armoured jeep, it has no hope.

Plain Artillery hasn't won a war since perhaps the Maratha wars 200 years ago ?
It's good for large over the ground stationary fortifications (medieval forts or concrete buildings), uselss for anything else.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1650761560166649857?s=20

Crossing the Dnieper has always been easy and now they done it.

There are no defences there and the russian army is elsewhere thinking it was uncrossable.

They don't even need the land to dry that much because it's mostly sandy over there.

If they succeed in holding and they push deeper, the russian defences will be taken from the rear and they will have to withdraw all the way to Mariupol. Checkmate.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1650761560166649857?s=20

Oh sh**t a trans-dneiper assault?
The mad lads are actually doing it.

Not really. They have taken some ground in sparsely populated/uninhabited swamp islands - not exactly a reliable bridge over the Dnieper. It could be a prelude to an assault but that would be difficult, and there's other reasons to take these areas.

Russia's main fortification was never the Dnieper. It's the line of forts they have behind it.

I read that Ukraine has 15k troops now to cross the river, that's too much to be a diversion, there is a force behind it.

And it if I was attacking, that's the place I would attack.
Not straight on the enemy fortifications, but behind them to flank their entire defence line.

It's not that the russians don't know, they have been panicking and fleeing already for a few days now in that area.

[oldtimer]

Again, its not actually that easy to do (probably rightly)

Plus some may still be hoping that a degree of sense returns there post-Orban.

It's eastern european tribal politics.

Hungary wants transcarpathia, Orban is simply riding longstanding hungarian public opinion on that.

So unless Ukraine agrees on giving it to Hungary, it will always be a problem.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1653090547853148179

With that information, it is now clear why Ukraine decided to hold on there as long as they have.

What did they expect ?
They are attacking a well fortified area with just infantry head on.

They don't try to do incirclements or manouver warfare NATO style, just WW1 crap.

[oldtimer]

An article talking about how Russia establishes loyal media outlets in the occupied territories.

It notes: "professional Russian journalists are not flocking to Mariupol, Henichesk, or Melitopol like they did to Crimea nine years ago", so the Russians are having to recruit locals willing to work for the occupiers, often attractive looking young women.

I guess the idea of living near or in a warzone isn't attractive to your average Russian journalist:

"But now there are neither [media professionals] eager to go to the ’new territories’ nor state officials calling for them to go there. Nobody knows whether these jobs will last or not. But everybody knows that there’s shelling there."

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1653387512197312514?s=20

If Russia didn't waste that much money and time on propaganda they might have won the war.

[oldtimer]

Those are the weakest "explosions" I have ever seen. Combine that with the fact that there were firefighters on the roof already and this is the lamest false flag operation that has ever been concocted.

Lets wait and see.

If it is a false flag, then they will do something big that needed justification.
If it's not, then they will do nothing as usual.

[oldtimer]

What? Is he saying that the counter-offensive has begun??:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1653774726999801858?cxt=HHwWhIC81cTWsfMtAAAA

It probably began many days ago when they crossed the Dnieper.

They are just gradually expanding the attacks on the front in order to not wake sleeping beauty in the kremlin.

[oldtimer]

the russians would need something like the 54,000 troops per 30km of front... for the entire 800 km of front inside Ukraine this would be 1,440,000 troops.

I stopped there. This guy is insane.

Well lets calculate, the front is about 500 miles long, russia probably only has 150k on the front, lets double it and say 300k max.

That's max 1 soldier every 3 yards or so , you can drive a cars through the gaps.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1656681492834131969?s=20

Entirely predictable russians.

Wasting their time and efforts to capture one small useless town while ignoring capturing and securing it's flanks first.

Imagine the most stupid thing to do, and that is what the russians will do.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1656734924534333441?s=12
For an army that is supposedly so well dug in the orcs are seriously jumpy and nervous right now

In every war in history russians always flee at the sound of gunfire, they don't want to fight for their Tsar.

Stalin had to resort in a second line to shoot them if they fled, to force them to fight.

When they believed that the Nazis where worse than Stalin and surrendering to them meant death, they stopped fleeing and surrendering and started to fight.

Now why is that, here are some of observations and conclusion based on russian history:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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Russian officers where completely incompetent, so Tsarist Russia and the USSR always used non-russians in every administrative role in the government or the military, Germans, Poles, Caucusus tribesmen.

The entire Russian Aristocracy where Germans who spoke French as their main language, and even Lenin was a German who spoke English with an Irish accent as his main language.

The reason for the relative retardedness of the russian people is due to their history of being isolated in small villages in vast forests for thousands of years until the railroads came in the 1860's.

And because of Dictators who regularly removed anyone who was more competent and braver than themselves, so over many generations russians became less smart and less brave.

[oldtimer]

Interfax:

Putin informed about the raids in Belgorod region. "All the necessary strength and tools are in place there"

Rosgvardia, FSB, and other law enforcement are on the scene.

https://t.me/interfaxonline/32408

What tools ?

According to the russians an Ukrainian force of just 2 tanks and infantry have advanced 10 miles in a few hours.

It's the most rapid invading advance in internationally recognised russian territory since the day of June 22nd 1941, and that was 3 million solders not 2 tanks.

I have to believe Strelkov that there is no russian army all the way to Moscow, it's just an open road all the way to the kremlin.

The key is what to do once the Ukrainian army gets there, how to treat the locals, how to administer.

[oldtimer]

Looks like the US GVT is looking for a deal with Turkey involving Sweden's admittance into NATO in exchange for an upgrade of Turkish F-16 fighter jets:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday urged Turkey to take immediate action on Sweden’s bid to join NATO, saying there was no reason for further delay in bolstering the trans-Atlantic alliance at a time of profound tension with Russia.

Blinken, speaking to reporters in northern Sweden, pointed to the strength of Swedish armed forces and the country’s history of close partnership with NATO, even before it became a candidate for membership in the alliance last year. While NATO members cemented the accession of neighboring Finland this spring, Turkey and Hungary have so far declined to ratify Sweden’s membership.

Blinken and Kristersson spoke in the industrial city of Lulea, where the Swedish leader is hosting U.S. and E.U. officials for talks on trade and technology, a day after President Biden appeared to link Turkey’s approval of Sweden’s NATO membership to a proposed American deal to upgrade Ankara’s fleet of F-16 fighter jets.

“He still wants to work on something on the F-16s,” Biden told reporters of a call he had with Erdogan to congratulate him on his reelection. “I told him we wanted a deal with Sweden, so let’s get that done.”

Asked whether he expected action by Turkey on Sweden’s NATO bid, Biden said: “I raised that issue with him. We’re going to talk more about it next week.”

Blinken said the administration had not connected its advocacy for Sweden’s NATO accession to the potential agreement to sell Turkey dozens of F-16s and modernization kits for Ankara’s existing jets. But he acknowledged that some in the U.S. Congress had made an explicit link, suggesting they would only support the administration’s proposal if Turkey relents on Sweden.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/30/sweden-turkey-nato-blinken/

Would it be better to admittance Sweden into NATO in exchange for Turkey's exclusion from NATO? It seems to me that the Turkish version of Putin, persecuting the Kurds, can only bring trouble to NATO.

Realistically:

1.Turkey is an independent great power and Sweden is not.
2.Turkey has a great geographical location and Sweden has not.
3.Europe has more islamic turkish voters that take orders from Turkey, than christian europeans in Turkey.

You see the inbalance, and why Turkey can constantly squeeze europe's balls.

In the whole of europe, America can perhaps only rely on Greece in a stand-off against Turkey, so it avoids tackling the question out of fear of a negative answer.

In short: Turkey is too strong.

[oldtimer]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP (2022 and 2023) and CPI 2022 for key economies
 
2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%*     +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%*    +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%*    +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%*    +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%*    +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -8.4%        +2.7%       +2.1%      +3.4%*    +3.9%          +1.6%
Aug         -8.0%        +2.8%       +1.6%      +3.4%*    +3.5%          +1.5%
Sept        -6.0%        +2.9%       +1.6%      +3.5%*    +3.4%          +1.6%
Oct          -4.5%        +3.0%       +1.7%      +4.1%      +3.3%          +1.6%
Nov         -3.6%        +3.2%       +1.8%      +4.2%      +3.3%          +1.5%
Dec         -3.3%        +3.2%       +1.9%      +4.3%      +3.0%          +1.4%
Jan          -3.0%        +3.3%       +2.1%      +4.2%      +3.0%          +1.3%
Feb          -2.1%        +3.4%       +2.1%      +4.1%      +3.0%         +1.1%
Mar          -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%      +3.0%         +1.0%
April         -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%     +3.0%          +1.0%
May          -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%     +3.0%          +1.0%

* - pre-adjustment. In early Oct UK adjusted its 2020 and 2021 GDP downward lowering the total GDP for both years.  The base effect of that change shifted the 2022 UK GDP growth upward.  All the 2022 GDP projections for the UK before Oct should really be something like 0.6% higher for a like-for-like comparison.

2023 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb          +2.1%      +2.5%        +2.5%       +2.1%     +5.2%        +1.7%
March       -1.5%       +2.5%       +2.3%        +1.9%     +5.2%        +1.8%
April         -0.6%       +2.4%        +2.2%       +1.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
May          -0.6%       +2.3%        +2.1%       +1.4%     +5.2%        +1.8%
June         -1.5%       +2.1%        +2.0%       +1.2%     +5.3%        +1.8%
July          -2.5%       +1.3%        +1.3%       +0.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
Aug          -2.7%       +0.9%        +1.1%       +0.5%     +5.2%        +1.7%
Sept         -3.0%       +0.3%        +0.9%       -0.2%      +5.1%        +1.5%
Oct           -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.4%      +4.9%        +1.4%
Nov          -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.7%      +4.9%        +1.3%
Dec          -2.7%       -0.1%         +0.3%       -1.0%      +4.8%        +1.3%
Jan           -2.9%        0.0%         +0.5%       -0.9%      +5.1%        +1.3%
Feb          -2.5%       +0.4%        +0.8%       -0.7%      +5.2%        +1.2%
Mar          -1.7%       +0.5%        +1.0%       -0.5%      +5.3%        +1.1%
April         -1.3%       +0.6%        +1.1%       -0.2%      +5.6%        +1.0%
May         -0.6%        +0.6%        +1.1%       +0.1%     +5.6%        +1.0%

2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +14.6%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Aug       +14.2%       +7.9%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Sept      +14.0%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.2%      +2.3%          +2.1%
Oct        +13.9%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.2%
Nov       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.3%
Dec       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.1%          +2.4%
Jan        +13.8%       +8.4%       +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
Feb       +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
Mar       +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
April      +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%       +2.0%          +2.5%
May      +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%       +2.0%          +2.5%

2022 GDP and CPI are mostly locked in.  There might be a chance 2022 Eurozone GDP might be adjusted downward but that is it.

Some recent non-GDP economic figures for PRC came in weaker than expected.  I expect both the USA and PRC 2023 GDP numbers to fall in the future.   Expectations of Russia continued to brighten at a fast rate and UK's 2023 prospects also improved but not as much.  Everyone else is status quo

Once you take into account that 2021 UK GDP growth got marked down by 0.6% and 2021 Russia GDP growth got marked up by 0.9% one can then construct a total cumulative 2022-2023 GDP loss based on current consensus/result vs 2022 Feb consensus as a percentage of 2021 GDP

(change from April 2023 calculation)
Russia      -6.7% (+0.7%)
Eurozone  -2.5% (same)
USA         -3.1% (same)
UK           -2.8% (+0.3%)
PRC          -1.8% (same)
Japan       -2.5% (same)

The total economic impact on Russia in 2022-2023 continues to improve, especially relative to the collective West.  PRC is the main marginal relative economic winner of this conflict once you take into account their own unforced error of continuing their COVID lockdowns in 2022.

That's pathetic, America recorded 15% GDP annual growth rates during WW2.

Russian production hasn't increased a zip 18 months into this Great War.

[oldtimer]

That's pathetic, America recorded 15% GDP annual growth rates during WW2.

Russian production hasn't increased a zip 18 months into this Great War.

To be fair, to Russia, this war is more like the Korean or Vietnam War for the USA.  Ukraine's military spending as a % of GDP once you also add in all sorts of military aid is more like the USSR's Great Patriotic War in terms of scale.  So Russia is fighting this war like a large-scale intervention war while Ukraine is fighting this war as a war for survival.

And the Vietnam War went so well for America, right ?

If you are fighting a War give it all you have or surrender on day 1, it's the one thing you can't compromise.

Look at your own chart, those who gave it all that they had usually won, those who didn't usually lost.

War is too serious for inertia.

[oldtimer]

I don't know who did it, but I am leaning towards Russia. Seems like a strategic play in their part. This morning (Ukrainian time) the Ukrainian garrisons finally withdrew from the islands located in the Dnieper due to the flooding. Crimea already taps other reservoirs for water and before the invasion they usually just shipped it off from Russia.

I'm positive it was Ukraine.

Only the ukranians have changed the terrain of the battlefield to suit their needs.

Now they can cross the Dnieper much much easier, and on places where there are no defences anymore.

Even if that fails, the russian army can't man or defend the entire front at the same time.

[oldtimer]

How many Russian fortified defenses are getting flooded?

I found this.  Not sure how accurate this is.

The flooding destroyed 2 Russian defence lines, once the water level dropps and stabilises the ukrainian army can cross without resistance.

A classic Ukranian move that they also did in the spring of 2022, by flooding the northern approaches to kiev, to prevent the russian army from reaching it.

The only thing that Russia can do is blow up the dams held by ukraine up stream to delay the river crossing long enough to rebuild a defence line.

[oldtimer]

I don't know who did it, but I am leaning towards Russia. Seems like a strategic play in their part. This morning (Ukrainian time) the Ukrainian garrisons finally withdrew from the islands located in the Dnieper due to the flooding. Crimea already taps other reservoirs for water and before the invasion they usually just shipped it off from Russia.

I'm positive it was Ukraine.

How though?

Blowing up a dam that isn't in your possession, particularly one the size of the kakhovka dam, is very hard. These are structures specifically designed to withstand huge external forces. It isn't the case of just lobbing a bunch of missiles, they would barely cause a scratch. To put it in perspective the bouncing bombs of the famous Dambusters Raid had over six times the amount of high explosive of even the largest missile in Ukraine's possession, and those took advantage of the pressure wave caused by underwater detonation to amplify the damage.

On the other hand, rigging the dam internally with lots of explosives is far easier.

It's extremely easy with guided missiles, HIMARS for example has a practical accuracy of about 1 yard.

That's what guided missiles are for, to destroy stationary or slow moving targets with very high accuracy.

You ony need one large hole and most of the dam pops like a balloon from the released force.

And Russia gets a big hole of about 100 miles in it's defence lines.

[oldtimer]

I don't know who did it, but I am leaning towards Russia. Seems like a strategic play in their part. This morning (Ukrainian time) the Ukrainian garrisons finally withdrew from the islands located in the Dnieper due to the flooding. Crimea already taps other reservoirs for water and before the invasion they usually just shipped it off from Russia.

I'm positive it was Ukraine.

How though?

Blowing up a dam that isn't in your possession, particularly one the size of the kakhovka dam, is very hard. These are structures specifically designed to withstand huge external forces. It isn't the case of just lobbing a bunch of missiles, they would barely cause a scratch. To put it in perspective the bouncing bombs of the famous Dambusters Raid had over six times the amount of high explosive of even the largest missile in Ukraine's possession, and those took advantage of the pressure wave caused by underwater detonation to amplify the damage.

On the other hand, rigging the dam internally with lots of explosives is far easier.

It's extremely easy with guided missiles, HIMARS for example has a practical accuracy of about 1 yard.

That's what guided missiles are for, to destroy stationary or slow moving targets with very high accuracy.

And Russia gets a big hole of about 100 miles in it's defence lines.

That still isn't anywhere near enough to destroy a giant-ass dam. Remember the Antonovskiy bridge? It made holes here and there making it impassible, but even a bridge of that magnitude could not collapse despite being pounded all the time.

Russians ended up blowing up it's pillars with explosives when they withdrew.

You only need one hole and Dams pop from the contained force that is unleashed:

You can even see the progression on the kakhovka dam from the pictures, first one flood gate then gradually the whole thing.

It's why building dams above populated areas is a risk.

[oldtimer]

I don't know who did it, but I am leaning towards Russia. Seems like a strategic play in their part. This morning (Ukrainian time) the Ukrainian garrisons finally withdrew from the islands located in the Dnieper due to the flooding. Crimea already taps other reservoirs for water and before the invasion they usually just shipped it off from Russia.

I'm positive it was Ukraine.

How though?

Blowing up a dam that isn't in your possession, particularly one the size of the kakhovka dam, is very hard. These are structures specifically designed to withstand huge external forces. It isn't the case of just lobbing a bunch of missiles, they would barely cause a scratch. To put it in perspective the bouncing bombs of the famous Dambusters Raid had over six times the amount of high explosive of even the largest missile in Ukraine's possession, and those took advantage of the pressure wave caused by underwater detonation to amplify the damage.

On the other hand, rigging the dam internally with lots of explosives is far easier.

It's extremely easy with guided missiles, HIMARS for example has a practical accuracy of about 1 yard.

That's what guided missiles are for, to destroy stationary or slow moving targets with very high accuracy.

And Russia gets a big hole of about 100 miles in it's defence lines.

What has precision got anything to do with it if you are still just packing a firecracker?

A unitary GMLRS fired from a HIMARS has a warhead of just 90kg. That is not particularly large and isn't intended for hardened structures. It took an ungodly amount of them fired in salvos over many weeks to break through the Antonovsky bridge. The dam is vastly stronger structure still.

Even Tochkas or Storm Shadows with 420-450kg warheads would only cause localised damaged.

As I pointed out, WW2 bouncing bombs were almost 3000kg, with multiple being needed to bring down a dam, despite being emplaced in the optimum position to blow one up.


Sorry, HIMARS can't destroy a dam. You might be getting confused with reports Ukraine was looking into breaking open individual gates with HIMARS, but that is clearly not what has happened here, the damage is far more extensive.

It's precicely what probably happend.

They blew up a dam gate with a HIMARS or something like it, you only need one significant hole to pop a dam.

And now an entire 100 miles stretch of the front has no russian defence lines, it's a brilliant move.

If you can't win the battle with it's terrain, change the terrain.

[oldtimer]

Meanwhile, a (46) year old Russian Man and father of (3) is acquitted of charges of "attempted murder" for allegations that he threw two Molotov Cocktails towards Russian Police Vans back in May '22 outside of the Kremlin:


https://twitter.com/mediazona_en/status/1666164860680380424?s=20

Imagine how unpopular Putin must be for a probably rigged jury to acquit.

[oldtimer]

And all this time he was under arrest. You can consider that he served a year in prison.

I wouldn't focus that much into it, in Greece it's 18 months pre-trial detention.

It's the fact that not even a probably rigged jury would convict.
That gives indication of how unpopular Putin currently is, that even a probably rigged jury was sympathetic to such acts.

Makes you think what the russian presidential elections would produce, if they can't rig a trial in their favour.