Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[oldtimer]

I hate our entire system.  The NDP will break soon and we'll get a no confidence vote, another election, and another liberal minority now with the added uncertainty of Chinese interference.  There's really nothing preventing Trudeau from running indefinitely.  No term limits or way to impeach.  67% of Canadians who voted did not back our PM in 2021. It's frustrating.

Could be a description of Stephen Harper or any non-american western leader:

Voters wanted to get rid of him for years, they just couldn't make up their minds which opposition party to vote for, until they really got desperate.

But it will happen.

[oldtimer]

I hate our entire system.  The NDP will break soon and we'll get a no confidence vote, another election, and another liberal minority now with the added uncertainty of Chinese interference.  There's really nothing preventing Trudeau from running indefinitely.  No term limits or way to impeach.  67% of Canadians who voted did not back our PM in 2021. It's frustrating.

A significant proportion of that 67% would prefer Trudeau over Poilievre.

Both come from the wormy, smarmy, disingenuous, pretentious Ted Cruz tradition, so honestly we’re in bad shape either way. I’ll meaninglessly throw my vote to the NDP again, even though they insist on keeping a leader who should’ve got the boot two losses ago.

I remember when Jack Layton was running to be Prime Minister. In 2011, before he got sick, it really did seem like he could finally be our guy in the next cycle. That is not going to happen for Singh.

Jack Layton dying was a tragedy, he was one of the few I genuinely respected and liked.
He made his cane a symbol of strength.

[oldtimer]

Something very bad has happened in canadian society especially among the young there, they are a lot in favour of killing people on the basis of poverty, that's some way radical conservatism there:

https://twitter.com/yuanyi_z/status/1655394452817555469

[oldtimer]

Something very bad has happened in canadian society especially among the young there, they are a lot in favour of killing people on the basis of poverty, that's some way radical conservatism there:

https://twitter.com/yuanyi_z/status/1655394452817555469

You see this as radical conservatism, I see it as pervasive hopelessness and a widespread belief that capitalism is broken with no way out (an incorrect belief if you ask me, of course).

It is radical conservatism, some Reagan and Thatcher people proposed doing the same to the poor and the homeless in the 1980's.

Cruelty instead of reform is a radical conservative thing.

Young Canadians are behaving like this:

[oldtimer]

Canadian polls have been so static since the last election that I'm surprised the housing comment alone would have moved the polls that much. I'll defer to our Canadian posters on that but is there anything else that would have contributed to the big shift recently?

The straw that broke the camel's back.

Although it was already bending for years.

The pattern usually is that voters hate PM X but can't decide on an alternative, then suddenly they decide.

[oldtimer]

When an NDP leader makes gains, even small ones, they have historically been kept around. The party is not like the Conservatives who don't care about having a revolving door for their leadership.

Singh may be ineffectual at growing the party's support, but the party's numbers are not bad from an historical standpoint. During the Layton years, the party routinely polled even lower than now, but Layton was always able to increase the numbers during the election campaign. And Singh has done that too (though, to a lesser extent).

He is really missing the ball right now and is being quite ineffectual of course, but he's not going to get turfed until we see a seat loss.  

The obvious counter to this is that the NDP are a smaller party right now than when Singh took over - even after we exclude Quebec from consideration. And when the government is down in the polls, the NDP isn't really benefiting at all according to most estimates. He's good at making the party faithful feel good, but testimonialism doesn't take parties from being taken for granted to having actual leverage.

I guess you could say I agree with the 338 piece on this from a few weeks ago.

Since the NDP are defacto a coalition partner of the Liberals under Singh, they both go up and down.

[oldtimer]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ro1spVdQO9Q

TLDR: Canada has a plan for what happens if the US becomes a full-on authoritarian fascist state. I've never been more ashamed of my own nationality.

Right Wing populists are ahead in the polls in Canada too.

The Conservative Leader is someone who became prominent by backing the Trucker Protest

Poilievre was elected leader of the Conservative Party with 70% of their votes before the terrorist occupation of Ottawa. Poilievre has also taken two positions on his backing of these terrorists. To Conservative partisans he proudly states his support and even sometimes what he did to support them, to Canadians in general though he denies any involvement and the he essentially only supported them in principal but opposed any of the lawlessness.

PP was elected leader after the convoy/occupation (O'Toole was turfed more or less due to his opposition to it) but the rest stands. I may be sympathetic to the centre-right and want action on cost of living and housing, but I'll find it hard to support a party led by a guy who chose to hold a meet and greet with Diagolon Nazis when he could have attended a Stanley Cup parade at the same time in the same city, no matter how nice his wife says he is.

It is a very hyperbolic overstatement to say O'Toole was removed because of his lack of support of the convoy. The CPC typically removes their leader after poor election performances (as what happened with Scheer in 2019).

I think people who associate Poilievre's leadership with the convoy horribly miss the point. The reason Poilievre is popular isn't because of the convoy, not amongst the Tory base nor amongst voters outside the Tory base. He's popular because of his focus and messaging on the cost of living crisis. Roman Baber and Leslyn Lewis were also in favour of the convoy - but they didn't win the leadership race!

I watched the news and O'Toole was indeed ousted because he opposed opposing the government.

What's the point of being leader of the opposition if you don't oppose anything ?
You can see their point in ousting him.

[oldtimer]

In the other big news in Canada, Doug Ford has admitted he made a mistake and will not remove the land from the Greenbelt for development.

History lesson: Conceding mistakes is how WAC Bennett remained premier of British Columbia for 20 years from 1952-1972.

You guys can’t have it both ways :


- We want to restrict development for a “Greenbelt”

- We want to build more houses


You have to choose and it seems like you guys have chosen option 1 , so then you have to live with the consequences of that policy decision

Why not build small commuter towns just on the edges of the greenbelt ?

[oldtimer]

It's the largest lead for any party recorded in Canadian opinion polls since Jan.2004 (around the creation of the Canadian Conservative Party): https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1705380609475121377
That would be wipeout for the Liberals.

[oldtimer]

It's the largest lead for any party recorded in Canadian opinion polls since Jan.2004 (around the creation of the Canadian Conservative Party): https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1705380609475121377
That would be wipeout for the Liberals.

The NDP government in an attempt to stop a conservative majority keep enabling larger and large potential majorities by propping up such an unpopular government.

It's called the PASOK phenomenon.

Sometimes governments that stare at the abyss freeze in terror and inaction, and refuse to change course.

[oldtimer]

I can't tell if the reporter is really stupid or the Politician is really smart.

Pierre Poilievre

Interview with False Questions

https://youtu.be/CmbAPfKJMRU?feature=shared

I saw this video a couple of days ago and shared it with some friends to point out how much of a narcissistic smuck Poilievere looks like here. Painfully insufferable. And everyone pretty much agreed he looked horrible here.

Of course you thought it was a good look.

Yet he’s still winning by Mulroney/Reagan esque margins in the polls.  Curious?

I mean, even by the worst polls 60% of Canadians are voting for parties on the "left or center-left" (the liberals clearly have centrist elements)... But yes, FPTP is a terrible system and Trudeau is also pretty 'insufferable' himself, albeit at least he isn't trying to emulate the worst parts of the populist conservatism in my country.

Not really.

The polling average has it at 50-50 (CON 40+PP 5+ BQ 5 = 50) (LIB 26+ NDP 18+ GRN 5 =49).

[oldtimer]

https://globalnews.ca/news/10397176/trudeau-temporary-immigration-canada/
Seems like Trudeau actually is backtracking. There actually could be a scenario where this entire international surge was more incompetence rather than malice.

“To give an example, in 2017, two per cent of Canada’s population was made up of temporary immigrants. Now we’re at 7.5 per cent of our population comprised of temporary immigrants. That’s something we need to get back under control.”

I can't believe the federal government is that incompetent.
Maybe they listened to businesses having difficulties to find employees due to manpower shortage rather than problems associated with such an influx of people.

If Britain left the EU over Immigration I wonder if Quebec will leave Canada over it too.

Will the BQ use the issue ?

[oldtimer]

https://globalnews.ca/news/10397176/trudeau-temporary-immigration-canada/
Seems like Trudeau actually is backtracking. There actually could be a scenario where this entire international surge was more incompetence rather than malice.

“To give an example, in 2017, two per cent of Canada’s population was made up of temporary immigrants. Now we’re at 7.5 per cent of our population comprised of temporary immigrants. That’s something we need to get back under control.”

I can't believe the federal government is that incompetent.
Maybe they listened to businesses having difficulties to find employees due to manpower shortage rather than problems associated with such an influx of people.

If Britain left the EU over Immigration I wonder if Quebec will leave Canada over it too.

Will the BQ use the issue ?

The BQ may use it but it's very difficult for a province to actually secede. The constitutional amendment formula for a province to leave is unanimous consent from 7 provincial legislatures with the majority of the country's population as well as the House and Senate. Support for Quebec separatism right now is in the 35% range inside Quebec, so I don't think they'd be able to get unanimous consent in their own province for Quebec independence, let alone other provinces.

https://www.constitutionalstudies.ca/ccs-term/amending-formula/?print=print-search#:~:text=There%20must%20be%20at%20least,for%20the%20amendment%20to%20succeed.

So unlike 1995 even if the BQ win a referendum they can't leave ?

Basically Catalonia then.

[oldtimer]

https://globalnews.ca/news/10397176/trudeau-temporary-immigration-canada/
Seems like Trudeau actually is backtracking. There actually could be a scenario where this entire international surge was more incompetence rather than malice.

“To give an example, in 2017, two per cent of Canada’s population was made up of temporary immigrants. Now we’re at 7.5 per cent of our population comprised of temporary immigrants. That’s something we need to get back under control.”

I can't believe the federal government is that incompetent.
Maybe they listened to businesses having difficulties to find employees due to manpower shortage rather than problems associated with such an influx of people.

If Britain left the EU over Immigration I wonder if Quebec will leave Canada over it too.

Will the BQ use the issue ?

The BQ may use it but it's very difficult for a province to actually secede. The constitutional amendment formula for a province to leave is unanimous consent from 7 provincial legislatures with the majority of the country's population as well as the House and Senate. Support for Quebec separatism right now is in the 35% range inside Quebec, so I don't think they'd be able to get unanimous consent in their own province for Quebec independence, let alone other provinces.

https://www.constitutionalstudies.ca/ccs-term/amending-formula/?print=print-search#:~:text=There%20must%20be%20at%20least,for%20the%20amendment%20to%20succeed.

So unlike 1995 even if the BQ win a referendum they can't leave ?

Basically Catalonia then.

I'm actually not sure Ontario Tory is correct about this. What the Supreme Court ruled is that the rest of the country has to negotiate with any province that votes to separate provided that a clear question is approved by the voters of that province. There is an open question as to what percentage approval is required. I think the term used is 'clear majority.'

This ruling formed the basis of the 'Clarity Act' that was passed by the Chretien government, who get the credit for it, but largely forgotten is that the Clarity Act itself was mostly written by Preston Manning.

In terms of how this relates to 'Brexit' obviously one could argue that 'Brexit' did not receive a large enough percentage. But, for instance, it's also possible if that situation were applied to Canada, that the other provinces and the federal government could argue that the 'Brexit' campaign was based on a series of lies, and so, is not a basis for a mandate.

These same points would have been made had the 1995 Quebec referendum received just over 50% of the vote.

So it will require something like a Conservative-BQ coalition.

Allowing Quebec to leave to make the rest of Canada more conservative or a double Quebec-Western secession.