Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[oldkyhome]

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1712120627782427057

This is likely what’s going to make the difference. Andy has the biggest microphone which means he’s going to end strong and get a decent chunk of the remaining undecideds.

[oldkyhome]

I wish we could’ve gotten some good polls to gauge this race before the election. Feels like a contest like this should’ve received a lot more attention on that front.

[oldkyhome]

I think turnout is going to be very low.

This, but it’ll mainly hurt Cameron. What the polls are missing is the crippling lack of Republican enthusiasm this cycle.

[oldkyhome]

I think turnout is going to be very low.

Really? I think the opposite.

I also think that if Andy loses, it will be in part because he failed to do enough to tie Cameron to the hated, 75% unfavorably rated Mitch McConnell. He should have emphasized their close ties and hinted that Cameron only views the governorship as a stepping stone to the Senate. If he hired me, that would have been the primary theme of this campaign. In the last few days/weeks especially, I worry because Cameron has gone full on blitzkrieg with advertisements painting Beshear as soft on crime, out of step with KY cultural values, and pro-Biden/anti-Trump. While Beshear's best response is "Hey, you know me and like me don't you?" and "Here's some doctors who don't like Cameron's healthcare plan." It just feels like he's bringing a knife to a gunfight, and like the Republicans have dumped a ton of money at the last minute into this race while the Democrats have failed to respond.

This is why I will sadly not be surprised by a loss tomorrow.

What polls have shown consistently over the past year is that almost without-exception Andy has locked up half of Kentucky voters. By galvanizing the other half of the electorate with petty personal attacks, he would not only supercharge his opposition but also probably alienate his own supporters who appreciate his uncontroversial good guy image.

[oldkyhome]

I think turnout is going to be very low.

Really? I think the opposite.

I also think that if Andy loses, it will be in part because he failed to do enough to tie Cameron to the hated, 75% unfavorably rated Mitch McConnell. He should have emphasized their close ties and hinted that Cameron only views the governorship as a stepping stone to the Senate. If he hired me, that would have been the primary theme of this campaign. In the last few days/weeks especially, I worry because Cameron has gone full on blitzkrieg with advertisements painting Beshear as soft on crime, out of step with KY cultural values, and pro-Biden/anti-Trump. While Beshear's best response is "Hey, you know me and like me don't you?" and "Here's some doctors who don't like Cameron's healthcare plan." It just feels like he's bringing a knife to a gunfight, and like the Republicans have dumped a ton of money at the last minute into this race while the Democrats have failed to respond.

This is why I will sadly not be surprised by a loss tomorrow.

What polls have shown consistently over the past year is that almost without-exception Andy has locked up half of Kentucky voters. By galvanizing the other half of the electorate with petty personal attacks, he would not only supercharge his opposition but also probably alienate his own supporters who appreciate his uncontroversial good guy image.

It would be a "petty personal attack" to go after Cameron for his personal life or worse, dogwhistle about his race. But going after him for his close and deep ties to Cocaine Mitch would NOT be a "petty personal attack," it would be fair game based on the fact that they really do have close and deep ties and it's purely political; there is a lot of evidence that Cameron is trying to game Kentucky politics to position himself the best to replace McConnell in the Senate. I don't understand why you leave that line of attack on the table.

Also you don't necessarily win with half or near-half of the electorate. You have to do SOMETHING to win over the swing voters. All I'm saying is this COULD have been a winning attack. We'll never know, I guess.

I’m not sure voters would see it that way. Cameron and co’s onslaught of attacks during the July-August phase undoubtedly hurt his numbers and dampened enthusiasm in his ranks. Andy was smart to steer clear of that, I think.

[oldkyhome]

I think turnout is going to be very low.

Really? I think the opposite.

I also think that if Andy loses, it will be in part because he failed to do enough to tie Cameron to the hated, 75% unfavorably rated Mitch McConnell. He should have emphasized their close ties and hinted that Cameron only views the governorship as a stepping stone to the Senate. If he hired me, that would have been the primary theme of this campaign. In the last few days/weeks especially, I worry because Cameron has gone full on blitzkrieg with advertisements painting Beshear as soft on crime, out of step with KY cultural values, and pro-Biden/anti-Trump. While Beshear's best response is "Hey, you know me and like me don't you?" and "Here's some doctors who don't like Cameron's healthcare plan." It just feels like he's bringing a knife to a gunfight, and like the Republicans have dumped a ton of money at the last minute into this race while the Democrats have failed to respond.

This is why I will sadly not be surprised by a loss tomorrow.

What polls have shown consistently over the past year is that almost without-exception Andy has locked up half of Kentucky voters. By galvanizing the other half of the electorate with petty personal attacks, he would not only supercharge his opposition but also probably alienate his own supporters who appreciate his uncontroversial good guy image.

The polls most certainly have not shown "Andy has locked up half of Kentucky voters." No poll has shown Andy Bashear to have the "certain support" of 50% of Kentuckians. Historically, over 50% well before the election was a good score; less than 50% a couple of week before the election was a lousy result; and less than 50% just before election day with few undecides was a mediocre score. The race has changed. We have witness Bashear slip from an almost commanding position to a mediocre one. He might pull it off. Then again, he might lose.

No poll? Lol

[oldkyhome]

Beshear +4

Prediction remains Beshear +4.

I will now accept my accolades.

KY: Beshear +5
MS: Reeves +4

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