States going Republican in 2012

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

In decreasing order of likelihood:

Indiana
North Carolina
Florida
Virginia
Ohio
Colorado
New Hampshire
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
New Mexico
Minnesota
Iowa

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

In decreasing order of likelihood:

Indiana
North Carolina
Florida
Virginia
Ohio
Colorado
New Hampshire
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
New Mexico
Minnesota
Iowa

Switch Florida and Virginia and yes.

Well Obama's 2008 margin in Florida was quite a bit narrower than that in Virginia. Florida has seen a slight Republican trend in recent times, while the same forces that made Virginia winnable for the Dems in the first place are still at work.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Obama will win re-election in 2012.

If the shift, in Election 2012, is an additional 3 points (which was the cases with the re-elections of 1996 Bill Clinton and 2004 George W. Bush) and, baring in mind that Woodrow Wilson is the only two-term president with a lower electoral-vote count in his re-election, I could see a couple (or few) states trading colors. Under that scenario, I'd see it potentially going this way.…


2008 Obama States as 2012 Status Quo: 28 + Neb. #02 + D.C. = 359 electoral votes
[-6 adjusted]

2012 Republican Pickups: North Carolina (15), Indiana (11), and Nebraska #02 (1) = 27 electoral votes

2012 Democratic Pickups: Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Missouri (11), and Montana (3) = 41 electoral votes

2012 Outcome
2012 Popular Vote: Obama 54.37%; Republican 44.10%
2012 Electoral Votes: Obama 373 electoral votes; Republican 165 electoral votes

Don't be ridiculous (I know, its your nature). Arizona, Missouri, Georgia, and Montana aren't going to be picked up by Obama in 2012.

Obama will be on the defensive in all of the states mentioned in this thread.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

I think one of the states that you guys are overlooking is Nevada. A few polls have shown Obama's approval in the low 40's. It seems he's really pissing off the libertarian vote in the state.

But anyway here's what I think:

Indiana: 80% chance Republican
North Carolina: 60% chance Republican
Florida: 60% chance R
Ohio: 55% chance R
Virginia: 55 chance R
Nevada: 60% chance R
Colorado: 60% chance R
New Hampshire: 50% chance
Iowa: 55% chance D
Pennsylvania: 55% chance D
Wisconsin: 55% chance D
New Mexico: 55% chance D
Minnesota: 55% chance D

There's no way that New Hampshire is the least likely of all of these states of voting Republican. NH will certainly go before PA, WI, MN, and maybe IA and NM.