There is zero chance Robinson wins. Zero. It's more likely republicans win every single other council of state office except this one than Robinson winning.
Then why is he still leading in most polls?
I think it's just based off an assumption that polls this early out say nothing, and most people don't know Robinson's beliefs. Saying Robinson has zero chance at winning though, doesn't strike me as a particularly accurate. North Carolina is an incredibly polarized state. In the unlikely scenario where Trump wins by more than 2020, then yes he could drag Robinson over the finish line, especially because Stein will likely only outrun Biden by 2 points at best. He doesn't have the incumbency or popularity advantage of Cooper, and Cooper still underperformed in 2020.
Poll
