Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Umengus]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1455627337509314574?s=20

It almost sounds crazy to me that record high turnout in a D+10 state does not automatically benefit the democrats yet here we are

Early turnout experts, I see.

Wasserman is predicting 2.8M-3.1M total turnout, but 2M on Election Day seems unlikely.

I cant even take Dave Wasserman seriously at this point lol

Wow, talking about taking my comments of context

Vaccinated Russian Bear I thought you were better that

My statement about not being able take Dave Wasserman seriously was because moments earlier he had just put of a tweet that ended being wrong and then he had to delete it.

my comment had nothing to do with turnout
it was was simply me saying that I no longer took Dave Wasserman tweets serilously at that point

Yawn. I repeat, Dave Wasserman has a good track records. And if you think, that him confusing some stats (while embarrasing, it one-time f**kup) somehow disproves that, well, that say more about you.

Re: Virginia. He predicted it might be a close race. In April!
He predicted much higher than 2017 turnout today in the morning, which you, guys, totally disbelieved.

That is, it is pretty clear, whom we should not take seriously.

correct.

[Umengus]

Yup, Republican turnout looks to be off the charts. Not good at all.

Democratic turnout is also off the charts. Republicans matching Dem % of 2017 will not do them any good because they lost that race by 9 points.

Polls say indies are going to vote rep this time. This is a big change.

[Umengus]

Just a reminder to not take the following seriously:
1) Incomplete turnout reports of only a select few counties
2) Exit polls

[Umengus]

I would like to remind everyone that exit polls aren't always reliable. If these are the truth though then yes things would be looking pretty good for Youngkin.

They're not reliable at all. A random Atlas user could probably make up a more accurate exit poll.

right but generaly, they favor democrats. not here.

[Umengus]

Everything we seem to have now points to essentially a dead heat. I can say with somewhat reasonable confidence that we're going to be in for a relatively long night and that perhaps everyone needs to make plans to stay up later than usual.

dead heat based on turnout but not on exit polls wich favor rep.

[Umengus]

So we have gone from a decisive MacDaddy win to a YoungKing landslide.

in 5 minutes

[Umengus]

If Youngkin doesn't win there are going to be a whole lot of angry blue avatars on here. They are boosting themselves up for a landslide that might not even happened based on an early exit poll.

And even if he does win you won't see Democrats threatening violence or demanding audits. That is the difference between the parties.

lol. You forget riots in 2020 by your friends. And accusation of fraud in 2000, 2004, georgia,...

[Umengus]

If Youngkin doesn't win there are going to be a whole lot of angry blue avatars on here. They are boosting themselves up for a landslide that might not even happened based on an early exit poll.

And even if he does win you won't see Democrats threatening violence or demanding audits. That is the difference between the parties.

Unfortunately, because of these exit polls I can already see people on the right calling the election rigged If Youngkin doesn't win

like in 2004 with kerry

[Umengus]

is there even a place called "nassau" in virginia?

Just googling Nassau VA and Nassau Count VA, it actually doesn’t appear to exist.

@Newsday
 Politics reporter covering Nassau County

[Umengus]

If Youngkin doesn't win there are going to be a whole lot of angry blue avatars on here. They are boosting themselves up for a landslide that might not even happened based on an early exit poll.

And even if he does win you won't see Democrats threatening violence or demanding audits. That is the difference between the parties.

lol. You forget riots in 2020 by your friends. And accusation of fraud in 2000, 2004, georgia,...

What riots in 2020? And the fraud accusations in 2000 and 2004 were nowhere near as mainstream among Democrats as the fraud allegations are amongst Republicans. Don't reply to my posts with your silly self.

BLM riots but I see that you are in denial. Even for the rest. lol.

[Umengus]

Everyone living in Nassau DESERVES WHATS COMING THANKS CLIMATE CHANGE FOR DELIVERING JUSTICE TO THE DISGUSTING PATHWTIC AMERICANS

i presume that you are democrat...

[Umengus]

If Youngkin doesn't win there are going to be a whole lot of angry blue avatars on here. They are boosting themselves up for a landslide that might not even happened based on an early exit poll.

And even if he does win you won't see Democrats threatening violence or demanding audits. That is the difference between the parties.

lol. You forget riots in 2020 by your friends. And accusation of fraud in 2000, 2004, georgia,...

What riots in 2020? And the fraud accusations in 2000 and 2004 were nowhere near as mainstream among Democrats as the fraud allegations are amongst Republicans. Don't reply to my posts with your silly self.

BLM riots but I see that you are in denial. Even for the rest. lol.

You were implying that there were riots over the election. No one is talking about BLM, but of course you people have to bring it up at every turn. Typical.

please...

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37946231

[Umengus]

in 2006, cnn exit poll had Web +10 and the final result was Webb by 0,1 %

[Umengus]

If Youngkin doesn't win there are going to be a whole lot of angry blue avatars on here. They are boosting themselves up for a landslide that might not even happened based on an early exit poll.

And even if he does win you won't see Democrats threatening violence or demanding audits. That is the difference between the parties.

lol. You forget riots in 2020 by your friends. And accusation of fraud in 2000, 2004, georgia,...

What riots in 2020? And the fraud accusations in 2000 and 2004 were nowhere near as mainstream among Democrats as the fraud allegations are amongst Republicans. Don't reply to my posts with your silly self.

BLM riots but I see that you are in denial. Even for the rest. lol.

You were implying that there were riots over the election. No one is talking about BLM, but of course you people have to bring it up at every turn. Typical.

please...

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37946231

That's from 2016, you said there were riots over the election in 2020. You lied and got called out. Let it go.

lol. The riots in 2020 were BLM riots. After, i prove to you that dems can also riot when they lose elections.

[Umengus]

Exit poll also has electorate at

D 35
R 35
I 30

if true it's a gop win.

[Umengus]

It'll be interesting to see the final margins for the House special elections too and the state legislative elections. It does look like the environment has turned and is now pointing to a Republican wave. Democrats have only this Congress to do as much good as they can, the trifecta is highly unlikely to be repeated for many years.

Imo it would be a mistake to necessarily operate on basis of 2022 being a GOP wave going forward. A sufficiently vigorous D campaign with good candidates on the new House maps could hold the House, and a strong D campaign can even net gains in the Senate. Biden has the bully pulpit. If the economy is in good shape come 2022 we have a decent chance of doing very well.
But we have to be ruthless in undercutting GOP messaging for this to make this more realistic, and accept that operating in myopia-land is the recipe for further defeats, which in turn is the way we lose the ability to deliver for our constituencies. Cut the loose ends, throw out the deadweight. Chase the median voter and strike a balance between nullifying R attack lines and focusing on redrawing the battlefield altogether. If some angry people on Twitter throw a fit, who cares? They aren't the swing electorate, their opinion literally does not matter. Rachel Bitofer-tier nonsense doesn't belong in D messaging.

In denial you are. 2022 will be like 2014 et 2010. With good or bad candidates.

[Umengus]

72 % of 2021 is weak. Isn't it ?

[Umengus]

If the Republicans get a trifecta in Virginia, Biden is done in 2024. It's not looking good for the blue team.

If Republicans get a trifecta, 2024 starts off Lean Republican nationally and probably toss-up in Virginia but it’s unlikely.

VA is not going to vote for trump.

[Umengus]

So if I understand well, results in competitive seats are between 2020 et 2021. Not bad for GOP, considering that VA is a blue state and that the 2023 special elections favored dems.

[Umengus]

FWIW Susanna Gibson overperformed the fundamentals.  That was the best Dem result in the state in a Biden +5 seat.

In fact the night was not so good for the dems: if biden does the same result, he loses the election.

[Umengus]

FWIW Susanna Gibson overperformed the fundamentals.  That was the best Dem result in the state in a Biden +5 seat.

In fact the night was not so good for the dems: if biden does the same result, he loses the election.

I'm getting tired of reading this.

*Democrats flip a chamber* -> "Here's why that's bad news for democrats"

Down ballot races aren't always good proxies for national races. Virginia Republicans still have strength down ballot and Biden winning the state by double digits wasn't a normal occurrence.

I prefer to lose by 2 (?) than to lose by 10. margins are very important, democrats like to speak about it in special elections.