2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Umengus]

Has anyone calculated the margin biden must have (before election day) to win?

[Umengus]

I am going to guess that If the democrats have at least a 20% lead in early-in person/mail votes in Florida once it totals over 5 million, they'll likely be able to win the state. It would be unimaginable to think that republicans can catch up with the other half of the vote on election day. There's over 5.5 million votes out too so it is possible we will get there.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

not so unimaginable in the actual situation.

[Umengus]

So for now:

National:

Mail in ballots requested: D 47 R 30 I 23 (61,7 millions)
Mail in AND early in person ballots returned: D 49 R 33 I 18 (21,2 millions)

Some results (in some states, early in person ballots is not possible)

Texas: Mails in (15 %) and early in person ballots (85 %) returned = R +11

Michigan: Mails in ballots requested: R +2
               Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: R +2

Wisconsin: Mails in ballots requested: R +2
                Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: D +2

Ohio: Mails in ballots requested: R +4
         Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: R +6

Florida: Mails in ballots requested: D +13
            Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: D +19

NC: Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: D +27

Georgia: Mails in ballots requested: D +3
              Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: D +2

Pennsylvania: Mails in ballots requested: D +40
                     Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: D+48

Arizona: Mails in ballots requested: D +0
             Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: D+14

Iowa: Mails in ballots requested: D +19
         Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: D +26

Nevada: Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: D+23

Virginia: Mails in ballots requested: D +18
             Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: D +15

Minnesota: Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: D+21


source: NBC/target smart

[Umengus]

FLORIDA


4,705,612 votes cast (mail + in-person EV)

Democratic: 2,085,559 (44.3%)
Republican: 1,659,686 (35.3%)
NPA/Other: 960,367 (20.2%)

Dem lead decreases to 425,873

~537,167 ballots were processed today

I mean, yeah it's decreasing but not by that much each day.  Wasn't the highest Democratic lead like 470k? 

Exactly, I don't get the thinking of how "The GOP is surging!" when yes, they are outvoting in EV, but Dems are still seeing a massive lead-in in mail ins, and with nearly 5M votes in right now, Dems are still up +426K which is massive.

We've talked about how Dems really just need to break even with the GOP, so the GOP really has a long way to go to catch up 426K behind.

considering that GOP will win  the ED very big, 426K is not enough for dems. 

[Umengus]

considering that GOP will win  the ED very big, 426K is not enough for dems. 

FL is not like PA where most of the R vote is gonna come on Election Day. GOP is only running a few points behind their registration in FL.

Total Registration

D: 37%
R: 35.69%

EV votes by party reg:

D: 39.8
R: 32.6

So it is not some vast difference and there is going to be less ED vote for GOP than folks think.

Yep. It's just as possible that Reps are doing better with Early Vote in Person is b/c many of their Election Day voters are voting early now.

maybe but polls say otherwise.

D+ 418K now.

[Umengus]

considering that GOP will win  the ED very big, 426K is not enough for dems. 

FL is not like PA where most of the R vote is gonna come on Election Day. GOP is only running a few points behind their registration in FL.

Total Registration

D: 37%
R: 35.69%

EV votes by party reg:

D: 39.8
R: 32.6

So it is not some vast difference and there is going to be less ED vote for GOP than folks think.

Yep. It's just as possible that Reps are doing better with Early Vote in Person is b/c many of their Election Day voters are voting early now.

maybe but polls say otherwise.

D+ 418K now.

As of last night/this morning (with no numbers from today):

FLORIDA
Dems 2,110,366 (44.2%)
Reps 1,682,849 (35.3%)
Other 978,741 (20.5%)
Total 4,771,956

Dems lead is 428K, or 8.9%.

yep but now it's 418k

[Umengus]

considering that GOP will win  the ED very big, 426K is not enough for dems. 

FL is not like PA where most of the R vote is gonna come on Election Day. GOP is only running a few points behind their registration in FL.

Total Registration

D: 37%
R: 35.69%

EV votes by party reg:

D: 39.8
R: 32.6

So it is not some vast difference and there is going to be less ED vote for GOP than folks think.

Yep. It's just as possible that Reps are doing better with Early Vote in Person is b/c many of their Election Day voters are voting early now.

maybe but polls say otherwise.

D+ 418K now.

As of last night/this morning (with no numbers from today):

FLORIDA
Dems 2,110,366 (44.2%)
Reps 1,682,849 (35.3%)
Other 978,741 (20.5%)
Total 4,771,956

Dems lead is 428K, or 8.9%.

yep but now it's 418k

If you're including this morning's data, I wouldn't, since there's no point in compiling tallies until each day is over

ok. Tonight will be better for trump