Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Umengus]

I am always surprised how Likud support always seems to hold up despite various Netanyahu scandals.

People in Israel expect their politicians to be corrupt (to a certain extent), and it is especially Likud voters who care much more about having a leader perceived as strong than about corruption scandals. There was this NYT interview in which some reporter went to southern Israeli Likud strongholds to ask voters why the hell they still voted for Bibi - something a liberal guy from the States obviously could not fathom. Perplexed, the reporter told people that Netanyahu had a private airplane and had received tons of money through questionable methods. "Who cares?", the falafel guy answered. "He is the Prime Minister. Let him have five airplanes." And that attitude is widespread among Likud voters, especially in the periphery.

Quite logical. Israel is a country in war so lots of people prefer a strong "corrupt" leader to a weak honest leader.

But 2 things: First, I don't think taht bibi has been condemned yet (correct if I'm wrong) and second, Bibi is not a strong leader, especially with hamas.

[Umengus]

 For now, Gantz capitalizes on his silence but at a moment, he will have to speak and when this moment will arrive, he will begin to lose voters.

[Umengus]

The Makor poll is amazing (giving 14 to Bennet and Shaked and again 5 to Bayit Yehudi and 25 to likud) but it's true that Bennett and Shaked are the most popular ministers (53 % for shaked, 44 % for bennett) so it's not impossible.

[Umengus]

Don't like her, but Shaked is hot.

sexist...

[Umengus]

Makor poll

Likud 32
BW 32
Labor 10
Hadash-taal: 9
UTJ 7
URL 7
HH 7
Shas 6
Meretz 6
Zehut 4


under threshold

YB 2,9
Kulanu 2,7
Raam Balad 2,6
Gesher 1,7

Midgam

BW 31
Likud 28
Labor 10
UTJ 7
Hadash-Taal 7
URL 7
Shas 6
Kulanu 4
Raam balad 4
YB 4
Meretz 4
HH 4
Zehut 4

under threshold

Gesher 2,3

[Umengus]

what's happen with Gantz ? the bibi indict. was the game changer and now, Bibi is first.

[Umengus]

what's happen with Gantz ? the bibi indict. was the game changer and now, Bibi is first.

Centralization of right wing voters. We predicted something like this might happen when B&W formed, but I'm surprised it hasn't caused more casualties in the minors yet. There have been two movements right now it appears: Likud -> Kulanu/Zehut if you don't like Bibi's scandals, Right -> Likud to protect against B&W. With this centralization, and Ari off the list, I would't be surprised if the first minor under is URWP.

But the other thing is that there is a lot of flux right now, what with who was banned and not banned. It could benefit the left, or the right depending on the narrative.

But why the BW result is down ?

[Umengus]

Panels conducted a poll of 998 people with a 3.4% margin of error that was published by Walla on March 19 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
 29 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
 09 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
 08 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
 07 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
 06 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
 06 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
 06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
 05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
 04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
 04 [07] Shas (Deri)
 04 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

2.9% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
 2.5% [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)

Under 1%

00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
 00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
 00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan) and others

68 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
 52 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to be Prime Minister?

46% Netanyahu, 28% Gantz, 18% Neither, 8% Don’t know

Likud voters: 95% Netanyahu, 3% Neither, 1% Don’t know, 1% Gantz
Blue & White voters: 86% Gantz, 6% Neither, 4% Don’t know, 4% Netanyahu

How has Gantz’s telephone-gate influenced your vote?

73% Didn’t influence, 23% Negatively influenced, 4% Positively influenced

Likud voters: 58% Didn’t influence, 37% Negatively influenced, 4% Positively influenced
Blue & White voters: 89% Didn’t influence, 8% Positively influenced, 3% Negatively influenced

Should Netanyahu be investigated in regards to case 3000?

47% Yes, 35% No, 19% No opinion

[Umengus]

So last night Bibi surprised everyone and did something he almost never does, and went on Channel 12, which is the Israeli version of CNN, for a personal interview. He imploded. He refused to rule out support for a French style immunity law that would basically shield him from prosecution in the indictments that have been leveled against him. He looked absolutely lost in front 9f the camera.

The rumor is that the private polling is actually really bad for the Likud right now and that he is doing what he usually does when he's in trouble, which is panic. Obviously there's no way of knowing if that rumor is true.

from my experience, private polls are not better than public ones.

[Umengus]

another exit poll:

Israel, i24 poll:

B&W-Centrists: 37 LKD-ECR: 33 LAB-S&D: 8 UTJ-Religious: 7 TA+HA-GUE/NGL: 7 URWP-Right: 7 NR-Right: 7 KL-Centrists: 6 SH-Religious: 5 MTZ-S&D: 5 ZH-Right: 4 BA+RA-GUE/NGL: 4 IB-Right: 0 GH-Right: 0

[Umengus]

Amended Channel 13 poll has Likud ahead by one seat

Channel 13 has adjusted its exit poll as real-time official results emerge. The amended poll gives Netanyahu’s Likud a one-seat edge over Gantz’s Blue and White at 35-34.

The network had previously predicted that the two front-running parties would be tied at 36. Both Netanyahu and Gantz have crowned themselves the winners of the election.

[Umengus]

Updated exit polls indicate Netanyahu headed for victory

Channel 12 and Channel 13 update their exit polls as the official ballots are counted.

Both networks’ revised samples indicate Netanyahu’s Likud will win 35 seats, compared to Blue and White’s 34.

The Channel 12 survey previously predicted 37 seats for Blue and White and 33 for Likud; Channel 13 had the two parties tied at 36.

Both exit polls now indicate that Shas would be the third-largest party with eight seats, followed by United Torah Judaism with 7. According to the TV stations, the New Right, Zehut and Gesher will fall under the electoral threshold.

In its breakdown of the political blocs, Channel 12 gives 63 of the 120 Knesset seats to the right, compared to 57 for the center-left, giving Netanyahu a clear path to forming a government. According to Channel 13, the right-wing bloc would receive 65 seats, compared to 55 for the center-left.

[Umengus]

Does Blue & White have a decent chance of even holding where it is now in a repeat election, or, now that the novelty is gone, are a lot of its voters going to go back to older parties?

I would imagine that the elections would be run along similar lines, although probably with a much-boosted Arab participation. But we're seeing now how razor-thin the right wing victory in April really was. A few seats either way and you have a revolution or total consolidation of power.

Labor will likely elect a new leader, and that could change the dynamic of the center-left. But I would imagine that Blue and White actually is even more likely to stay at 35 seats than the Likud, who couldn't possibly exceed their April vote unless Kulanu or Bennet or Zehut merged with the Likud, which is unlikely.

-why likud couldn't possibly exceed their april vote ? why likud voters would vote differently now ?

-the right wasted so much votes due to threshold last time. That could change.

[Umengus]

Today the Knesset will vote on the first of three readings for a bill to dissolve the Knesset and go to elections. It should pass easily and will be supported  by Liberman, who is basically set against any possible compromise at this point. New elections will likely be at the end of August

Naftali Bennett announced that the New Right will run,in the new elections and it is unclear whether that will include Ayelet Shaked, who was rumored to be considering running with Liberman but has since denied those rumors. The Arab parties are likely to once again run as a joint list, which would probably instantly net a few extra mandates for the left. They ate meeting tonight to formalize that.

shaked rumoured on the likud list.