Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

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I dont think I'd even want to hazard a guess on  what type of counting bias Brazil has on election night.

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The vote counted is mostly from Brasilia lol. Relax people

I'd imagine most of us don't know how to do that. 

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bolsonaro is the favorite now surely

No?

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https://twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1577006655111254016

Seems desperate and could backfire if it runs into legal challenges if my Brazilian friend is to be believed.

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https://twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1577006655111254016

Seems desperate and could backfire if it runs into legal challenges if my Brazilian friend is to be believed.

A legal challenge would be a disastrous event for Lula. Giving cash to voters is the perfect opportunity for a Jacksonian "The Chief Justice has made his decision, now let him enforce it" moment. Imagine a populist candidate being able to say "I want to help poor and struggling families but the unelected jurists want to stop me! Empower me to break the system! I will push ahead full steam!"

I said and still say that Trump should have done this in 2020. That alone probably would have won him the necessary votes. We'll see how it works out for Bolsonaro.

The Social Welfare program already exists. People are getting the money one way or another. It's not like the stimulus checks that we got here in the states.

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Rodrigo Garcia, the governor of São Paulo, has just endorsed Bolsonaro for president and Tarcisio for governor during a livestream with them both, claiming he'll give them "unconditional support". That said, it doesn't seem like Tarcisio wants Garcia to campaign with him, he said the support from PSDB voters is to be expected, but he doesn't really see a point in appearing with the governor since he "was always fighting for change" (keep in mind that Garcia's party has ruled São Paulo for the last 28 years).

Among the four parties that supported Tebet's bid for president, three seem to have already decided their position in regards to the second round. PSDB is letting their members just do whatever they want, Cidadania is going to support Lula and MDB will also let their members just do whatever. Tebet herself is probably going to endorse Lula, but I have no doubt there will be pro-Bolsonaro factions inside the party (just look at the mayor of São Paulo, who's defending that the SP MDB gets behind Tarcisio). Podemos is the fourth party that supported Tebet, but I haven't heard anything about them, they'll probably just stay neutral like they did in 2018.

PSD will keep their neutrality and let their members support whoever they want. There are both Lula supporters, like Otto Alencar, and Bolsonaro supporters, like Ratinho Jr, inside PSD, so this decision isn't unexpected, they're just repeating what they did in the first round. At the end of the day, we all know the party leader, Gilberto Kassab, will just sell his support to whoever ends up getting elected.

There's also PTB, the party that ran the priest guy for president and the least important people I'm talking about here, they'll support Bolsonaro, obviously. They haven't announced it officially yet, but they should get around to doing until the end of the week. That whole party's purpose nowadays seems to be housing the most extreme bolsonaristas out there.

Also, the first second round poll will be released tomorrow, assuming anyone still cares about what they have to say. It will be an Ipec poll.

It seems like polling did a good job for Lula's percentage of the vote. I think it'll be a good sign for him if he's polling over 50.

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The pollster made an hypothesis concerning the differences between the polls and the actual results: they think that there were some voters who hate PT but they don't love Bolsonaro, these voters were thinking in voting for Ciro Gomes or Simone Tebet in the 1st round and for Bolsonaro in the runoff, and since the polls in the eve considered the possibility of Lula winning already in the 1st round, they decided to antecipate their vote to Bolsonaro as a tatical vote, in order to avoid a big margin between Lula and Bolsonaro.

That would explain why Lula's share was accurate but Bolsonaro's wasn't. From an American's perspective, that feels like its giving voters too much credit though. It seems easier to just chalk it up to shy Bolsonaro voters who'd rather say they were voting for less popular candidates. Of course, most Americans have never voted in an election with multiple rounds so tactical voting almost never comes into play here.

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Looks like both polls significantly tightened from their pre-election second round polling (+15 to +8 and +8 to +4), though Poder's was back on Sep. 20. I still consider Lula favored but I take it we shouldn't be completely shocked if Bolsonaro survives?

For context, no second place finisher has even won the second round of a Brazilian presidential election. It would be pretty shocking just from a historic point of view.

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Looks like both polls significantly tightened from their pre-election second round polling (+15 to +8 and +8 to +4), though Poder's was back on Sep. 20. I still consider Lula favored but I take it we shouldn't be completely shocked if Bolsonaro survives?

For context, no second place finisher has even won the second round of a Brazilian presidential election. It would be pretty shocking just from a historic point of view.

Appreciate that context but history doesn't mean much in making predictions. There has also never been a first round as close as this one and the only reasonable comparison, 2006, doesn't seem to apply here.

You asked if "we shouldn't be completely shocked if Bolsonoaro survives?"

I would be pretty shocked honestly..
But I'm only a casual Brazilian politics observer. I know about Brazilian history so there was my context.

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Economist poll of polls. I am not aware of any polls that has the race as tied

I did some quick searching and none of the major pollsters have released a tied poll. Heres the link by the way.

https://www.economist.com/interactive/brazil-2022

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Guess someone at The Economist noticed because its no longer saying a tie.

https://www.economist.com/interactive/brazil-2022