I never want to hear again how the gop has a systemic bias in its favor
NY can have a 22-4 map and get away with it
Oregon can get away with its bs
Illinois can get away with its bs
These rulings always go in one direction. Always.
And yet the national map is a lock to have an overall Republican slant.
It's not really a lock at all.
The redistricting experts on Twitter seem to think otherwise, that a 50-50 national House popular vote split in 2022 will almost certainly lead to a Republican controlled House.
You obviously are out of the loop cause Dave Wasserman and Nate Cohn, among many others, now expect the House to probably be a bit to the left of the 2020 popular vote. This is still a slight R bias compared to if the entire nation were mapped using the same standards: just as the median senate seat was 4 points to the right of the 2020 popular vote, the median House seat would probably be something like 3 points to the left. This is just what happens when parties focus on the easiest path to the presidency, and one parties path doesn't involve winning the popular vote.
Now, what you may be confused by is when other situational factors, like retirements, funding, candidates - and how a handful of incumbents are in mismatched seats by partisanship - that go beyond the overall topline analysis. But the GOP will have to take seats Biden won to get a majority, whereas the Dems in 2018 could just walk Clintons path to victory. And its easy to imagine a Dem majority in 2024, unless the topline is a landslide.
Your two Tweets agree with me. Wasserman says a 2 or 3 seat gain from current maps for Dems, which would still be a Republican lean, and Cohn is skeptical of the idea that we could end up with a Dem-leaning map, but doesn't dismiss the possibility altogether. I follow both of them on Twitter, as well as
G. Elliot Morris.Ultimately, it comes down to exactly what people are talking about when they are discuss leans. I am referring to which way the House goes in an exactly 50-50 map by national House popular vote, not based on Biden districts (since Biden did better than 50-50 in the two-party vote for Trump, and even if he didn't, it would be a presidential vote and not a House vote), and not based on a comparison to last decade's super gerrymandered map. But as Cohn says in the Tweet, we just won't know for sure until we get the rest of the maps.
However, the fact that 100% of one party's Representatives and Senators support banning gerrymandering, and 0% of the other party does really speaks volumes about which side is benefiting more from it.
