Pennsylvania Statewide Election Discussion - 11/2

[Badger]

Brobson's lead over McLaughlin has shrunken to 34,815 votes (1.26% margin). There are still some mail-ins and provisionals left to count, but definitely not enough for McLaughlin to make up the deficit. Pain.

Dumas's lead over Crompton has grown to 12K, so it's safe to say that she has secured a win.

McLaughlin won Erie county county by 14 points while Timika lost it by 9... that's kinda interesting. Is Sullivan from that area?

Also, McLaughlin getting 62.5% of the vote in Allegheny county is quite impressive. It looks like Democrats clearing 60% there is the new normal, thanks to the realignment.

At least according to the Northeast Times, Sullivan was born in Juniata and lives in Paoli now.

I was also surprised how strongly McLaughlin won Erie County, especially since she's still trailing narrowly in Dauphin and Bucks. I know state supreme court races don't always match up with other statewide partisan results, but I still wouldn't have guessed she would carry Erie in a landslide before those two.

Yeah, McLaughlin running up the score is pretty surprising in not only Erie but Lackawanna as well. Dems usually have downballot strength in Lackawanna, but nearly 20% in pretty incredible there.

Some of the other places are kind of surprising - Dauphin really swung against Ds this cycle after Biden won it by 8. It's never been a Dem stronghold, but both it and Cumberland swung much R this time around.

Delaware has McLaughlin +10 which is actually pretty good considering they tend to have among the most mean reversion in off-year elections. Chester is McLaughlin +7, which is closer to 2016 levels than 2020 levels.

Montgomery held the strongest of the suburban counties, McLaughlin is likely to end up with a Clinton +21-type margin there (Biden won by 26).

Philly is the most frustrating, b/c although turnout was actually up here vs 2017 (22% this year, vs 20% in 2017), if it was even at like 25%, McLaughlin would've netted enough to win.

So wait a minute: If McLaughlin did so well in major counties, and turnout rates in Philly actually improved from 4 years ago, how'd she still lose (albeit narrowly)? Did Brobson run up Mega margins in the rural counties even compared to Trump?

[Badger]

Here are the shifts currently from the last SC race in 2017 to now. Really jarring shifts that would make you think McLaughlin won this race, since Woodruff lost by 4.5%.

I'd have to take a closer look, but given these crazy swings here, the rurals must've gotten even more red though than last time to counter act this (plus low turnout in Philly again did not help), and the minor ~1.5% swing in Allegheny didn't help either, since that's the biggest turnout county.

Erie
2017: Mundy (R) +9.5
2021: McLaughlin (D) +14.5

Allegheny
2017: Woodruff (D) +26.4
2021: McLaughlin (D) +25

Centre
2017: Woodruff (D) +1.3
2021: McLaughlin (D) +3.2

Luzerne
2017: Mundy (R) +22.7
2021: Brobson (R) +13.2

Lackawanna
2017: Mundy (R) +3.8
2021: McLaughlin (D) +18.6

Lancaster
2017: Mundy (R) +30.5
2021: Brobson (R) +24

Dauphin
2017: Mundy (R) +19
2021: Brobson (R) +3.5

Monroe
2017: Mundy (R) +10.3
2021: McLaughlin (D) +3.2

Northampton
2017: Mundy (R) +3.2
2021: McLaughlin (D) +2.3

Lehigh
2017: Mundy (R) +2.8
2021: McLaughlin (D) +2.2

Berks
2017: Mundy (R) +21.5
2021: Brobson (R) +14.7

Bucks
2017: Mundy (R) +1.9
2021: Brobson (R) +2.2

Montgomery
2017: Woodruff (D) +14.3
2021: McLaughlin (D) +20.4

Chester
2017: Woodruff (D) +0.9
2021: McLaughlin (D) +6.7

Delaware
2017: Woodruff (D) +0.9
2021: McLaughlin (D) +10.2

Philadelphia
2017: Woodruff (D) +60.8
2021: McLaughlin (D) +65.1

 That Luzerne County flip is brutal. Does Brobson live there?