Pennsylvania Statewide Election Discussion - 11/2

[wbrocks67]

Lots of good data finally on how many mail-ins were returned!

https://twitter.com/Elaijuh/status/1455560130267914242

https://twitter.com/Elaijuh/status/1455561897856602113

[Gass3268]

PA Dems off-off year infrastructure is typically pretty good, right?

Going to a 6-1 majority in the state's supreme court would be awesome, especially with redistricting battles coming up.

[Mexican Wolf]

I was Voter 110 at my precinct earlier this morning. Mostly voted for Dems except for the write-in township offices where I just wrote in people I know.

[wbrocks67]

PA Dems off-off year infrastructure is typically pretty good, right?

Going to a 6-1 majority in the state's supreme court would be awesome, especially with redistricting battles coming up.

It's usually quite decent.

2019 - Judge of the Superior Court statewide race had D as the #1 vote getter, but R as #2. Dem was close behind at #3 though.

2017 - This was the most disappointing with Mundy beating Woodruff by 4.5%, though Mundy was the quasi-incumbent. Dems had the top 3 for Superior court though.

2015 - This was the most surprising, even with Obama as president, Dems killed it in the Supreme court race, winning all 3 spots.

McLaughlin also appears to be pretty popular and well-known, so we'll see. GOP has spent more on the race though I think.

[wbrocks67]

I was Voter 110 at my precinct earlier this morning. Mostly voted for Dems except for the write-in township offices where I just wrote in people I know.

Is that considered good turnout for your precinct?

[fluffypanther19]

going to vote for pittsburgh's first black mayor later today. excited

[wbrocks67]

There will probably be another red mirage though, ala 2020, as most of those 700K ballots won't be counted until today so I don't think they'll appear in the vote totals until much later.

[Mexican Wolf]

I was Voter 110 at my precinct earlier this morning. Mostly voted for Dems except for the write-in township offices where I just wrote in people I know.

Is that considered good turnout for your precinct?

For an off-year, non-midterm election, I'd say it's around average. IIRC, I think there's usually around 400-500 votes cast in my precinct on off-years like this. Btw, my precinct usually goes around 60% R to 40% D, give or take a few points, in elections.

[Senator Incitatus]

Will be watching to see what happens in Northampton and Erie. If Lynch wins N'hampton, we're looking at a truly unstoppable Republican wave.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So far it looks good for McLaughlin, but it's very early.

She got 32% of the E-day vote in Northumberland (Biden: 30%) and 37% of in Forest (Biden: 27%).

[wbrocks67]

Yep, and McLaughlin performing the best out of all Dems so far.

Supreme Court
McLaughlin (D) 194K - 81%
Brobson (R) 46K - 19%

Superior Court
Lane (D) 182K - 77%
Sullivan (R) 54K - 23%

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Yep, and McLaughlin performing the best out of all Dems so far.

Supreme Court
McLaughlin (D) 194K - 81%
Brobson (R) 46K - 19%

Superior Court
Lane (D) 182K - 77%
Sullivan (R) 54K - 23%

McLaughlin was pretty aggressive in her campaign media.  I could barely watch more than like two YouTube videos without seeing an ad for her. 

[Nyvin]

Mclaughlin is doing really good, but a lot of the lead is from Philly and Allegheny reporting some results early.

[wbrocks67]

Lackawnna has 11.5K e-day votes in so far, and McLaughlin winning 55-45%

Severely outrunning Lane there, who is tied with Sullivan on E-day votes.

[wbrocks67]

Nearly 500k votes in-

McLaughlin (D) 63.9%, Brobson (R) 36.1%

Lane (D) 61.2%, Sullivan (R) 38.8%

McLaughlin (+27. outrunning Lane (+22.4) quite a bit

[wbrocks67]

We are at 1M votes, and McLaughlin is +7 but Sullivan has taken the lead by 1%.

[Nyvin]

We are at 1M votes, and McLaughlin is +7 but Sullivan has taken the lead by 1%.

Any idea how many votes in total are expected?

[wbrocks67]

We are at 1M votes, and McLaughlin is +7 but Sullivan has taken the lead by 1%.

Any idea how many votes in total are expected?

Good question. Turnout in 2017 was ~2.1M and 2019 was 2-2.5M depending on the race, so I'm assuming maybe somewhere around there?

[wbrocks67]

~1.7M votes now, Brobson up 2, while Sullivan up 9. Safe to say Timika Lane unfortunately is likely not winning.

It appears there is still a ton of vote out from Philly and its suburbs though.

[Nyvin]

Apparently still no results from Delaware county.   Lots left still from Philly and Montgomery.

[wbrocks67]

I can't tell where outstanding vote is now b/c NYT is so much faster than the PA SOS website and NYT has no map

[ctherainbow]

Philadelphia Dems should be mortified right about now.  Only 18% turnout with 96% reporting?  I mean I know it's a municipal election, but... wowza.

[wbrocks67]

Philadelphia Dems should be mortified right about now.  Only 18% turnout with 96% reporting?  I mean I know it's a municipal election, but... wowza.

Yeah, I mean Philly turnout even in a presidential election isn't that great so this isn't surprising. Though I wouldn't be surprised if there are still mail-ins left.

Hard to tell how much is still out though. Montco for example still has ~17K outstanding mail-ins, but I have no idea about the rest.

Interesting that McLaughlin really outperformed in areas like Allegheny, Erie, Lackawanna. Chester and Delaware look pretty terrible unless there's a lot of mail-ins outstanding, but those margins right now are terrible for those counties. Unfortunately, the overperformance in the first 3 got ruined by the underperformance in the suburbs it seems.

Philly got an 81/19 margin which isn't terrible, but the low turnout definitely hurt.

The worse thing for Timika Lane is that she's from Philly and somehow Sullivan was able to get 22% of the vote in Philly. Truly tells you that the few GOPers Philly does have came out and Dems didn't.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

These results make me very, very worried about next year.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Lots of judgeships including a PA Supreme Court justice went to the pubs.