PA State Legislature Megathread

[Badger]

A couple thoughts about Districts 83 and 87:

Re: 83, the City of Williamsport has just under 30k residents, of whom the percentage of African-Americans is in the low to mid teens. I'm not sure how much of a Democratic Base there is to fire up here with a black candidate. Please note I'm reflecting voter ignorance/racism rather than trumpeting it, but it gets harder for an African-American candidate in a white district with a decidedly "black" name like the Democrat running here, as opposed to a black candidate names "Mike Smith" or the like. (Yes, Barack Obama is an exception of course, but for races with infinitely less media coverage, that's still a barrier to many reachable voters who don't like Trump and their economic policies, but are suspicious of blacks as well).

Re: 87, I question whether there's no difference between the East and West Shore communities. One of my closest friends moved to Harrisburg and I went there many, many times over the years. There's a reason locals have historically also called the West Bank  "the White Bank". Probably why this is a GOP leaning district.

[Badger]

A couple thoughts about Districts 83 and 87:

Re: 83, the City of Williamsport has just under 30k residents, of whom the percentage of African-Americans is in the low to mid teens. I'm not sure how much of a Democratic Base there is to fire up here with a black candidate. Please note I'm reflecting voter ignorance/racism rather than trumpeting it, but it gets harder for an African-American candidate in a white district with a decidedly "black" name like the Democrat running here, as opposed to a black candidate names "Mike Smith" or the like. (Yes, Barack Obama is an exception of course, but for races with infinitely less media coverage, that's still a barrier to many reachable voters who don't like Trump and their economic policies, but are suspicious of blacks as well).

Re: 87, I question whether there's no difference between the East and West Shore communities. One of my closest friends moved to Harrisburg and I went there many, many times over the years. There's a reason locals have historically also called the West Bank  "the White Bank". Probably why this is a GOP leaning district.

Oh, I'm fully aware that racism will probably play some part in the District 83 election.  The good news is that there's a good chunk of non-latently racist independents who are not going to be bothered by a black candidate, but I know that the potential of a black representative could turn off a small number of conservative Dems, as well as bringing the racists out of the woodwork to vote against her.  We'll have to see which trend prevails in the outcome.

I think you might've misread the District 87 post.  I said that there definitely WAS a difference; trust me, I noticed the bank-based trends while I was living there, too.    

Whoops! You're right. I misread. My bad.

Please keep this up, BTW.

[Badger]

I agree the Senate flipping seems a stretch at first, but if Dems only need to sweep the Tit R or better seats (3 GOP incumbents apiece you rate as Tilt R or Tilt D, plus one toss-up), and then win 2 of three Lean R seats to pull a tie (with LG Fetterman casting the tie-breaker for Dem control), that seems doable in a wave. Of course, you may have a more daunting definition of "lean" than I do.

The key will of course be the Philly burbs (particularly Bucks), where I believe all but two of the seven Tilt/Lean/Tossup R seats are (the others being in greater Allentown and the Poconos).

[Badger]

Wolf and letterman should just relocate to bucks and Montgomery till election day

[Badger]

I'm finally done with initial research/predictions!  Here are the last few seats:

District 199:

Democrat:  Joseph McGinnis Jr
Republican:  Barbara Gleim
Libertarian:  Charles Boust

Open Cumberland County district that is heavily Republican.  Libertarian Boust could siphon votes, but likely won't change the outcome here.  Likely R.

District 200:

Democrat:  Christopher Rabb (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 201:

Democrat:  Stephen Kinsey (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 202:

Democrat:  Jared Solomon (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 203:

Democrat:  Isabella Fitzgerald (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

Thanks so much for reading my rundown/analysis/predictions!   

Great job!

Now start right away on updates.

[Badger]

Saw this internal for Emily Skopov in PA HD-28: https://p.pghcitypaper.com/media/pdf/emily_skopov_mike_turzai_poll_memo.pdf

It has her only down 50-45 against the Speaker of the PA House, and tied among those almost certain to vote. Wolf also leads BIG (53-39) in this district he lost 62-37 in 2014. If these numbers are remotely in reality (I am looking at these very skeptically), RIP the PA GOP.

Thanks for sharing this info!  I'm gonna add the link.  I agree that a good dose of skepticism is needed when looking at these numbers, but if results like this bear out across the Commonwealth on November 6th, the PA GOP is going to be wrecked, probably losing the state house and senate and sending an 11D/7R House delegation to Washington.

I grew up in this district. My parents moved from it to downtown Pittsburgh only a year ago. Nice if true, but color me skeptical in what has to be the most GOP friendly house district in Allegheny County, if not all SW PA. With tge possible excption of the one just to the north centered in Cranberry Twp.

[Badger]

Time to see if I did well or flopped with my district analysis, plus results.  Format is:  (Analysis)Results/Pickup or Hold

PA State Senate Results:

District 2:  (Strong D)100D/0R  D Hold

District 4:  (Strong D)87D/14R  D Hold

District 6:  (Tilt R)50R/50D  Too Close to Call (R+100 votes)

District 8:  (Strong D)100D/0R  D Hold

District 10:  (Tossup)53D/47R  D Pickup

District 12:  (Tilt R)53D/47R  D Pickup

District 14:  (Strong D)100D/0R  D Hold

District 16:  (Tilt R)51D/49R  R Hold

District 18:  (Strong D)100D/0R  D Hold

District 20:  (Strong R)82R/18G  R Hold

District 22:  (Strong D)61D/39R  D Hold

District 24:  (Lean R)53R/47D  R Hold

District 26:  (Tilt D)54D/46R  D Pickup

District 28:  (Strong R)63R/37D  R Hold

District 30:  (Strong R)73R/27D  R Hold

District 32:  (Likely R)66R/34D    R Hold

District 34:  (Likely R)56R/44D  R Hold

District 36:  (Strong R)67R/33D  R Hold

District 38:  (Lean D)50D/50R  D Pickup

District 40:  (Tilt R)56R/43D  R Hold

District 42:  (Strong D)100D/0R  D Hold

District 44:  (Lean R)52D/48R  D Pickup

District 46:  (Tossup)59R/41D  R Hold

District 48:  (Strong R)63R/37D  R Hold

District 50:  (Likely R)66R/34D  R Hold

So as of now, Dems have picked up 5 seats in the State Senate, including one I did not expect in District 44.  Depending on the official results in District 6, which should be in by Friday(but which appear to be an R Hold for the seat), the chamber will be either 29R/21D, or 28R/22D, either of which pulls Republicans below a 3/5ths majority in the chamber.  Not as good a night as Dems might have hoped for, but no small victory, either.

I'll work on the State House results tonight and hopefully have them posted by tomorrow.   

What's with district 16? You have it as an R hold, but the vote totals being 51/49 d

[Badger]

Apparently the PA Republicans are trying to find a way to deny Lindsey Williams (SD-38) her seat simply because she has ties to the DSA.

wut?