If Hirono does pass away in office, Hanabusa would appoint another Japanese-Hawaiian (or possibly just herself) to her Senate seat, so it’s win-win either way.
I think she'd appoint Gabbard actually...more to avoid a messy primary in the special, as Gabbard is certainly going to run for the seat.
Gabbard did endorse Hanabusa for Governor, so I could see Hanabusa returning the favour, but Hanabusa and Gabbard have never really been natural allies in past, so I’m not too sure. It also seems like Hanabusa is the de facto leader of the Hawaii Democratic establishment that Gabbard has never really fit into.
I think Hanabusa will be hard-pressed into appointing a member of the AJA community into Hirono’s seat, as Hirono could potentially be the last Japanese-American in Congress from Hawaii due to demographic changes. They’ve been used to having at least one of Hawaii’s Senate seats since Hawaii was made a state, and I don’t think it’s something they’re going to give up to Gabbard easily.
Ing (who is polling at 2%) might as well have been disowned by the entire Japanese community after his Inouye comments, and Fukumoto’ is also going to have an uphill battle, seeing as she’s an outsider trying to win the support of a very machine-based community.
The Japanese community is concentrated in HI-1 and not HI-2, so it’s unlikely that Gabbard’s successor will be a Japanese-American, and it’s very likely that either Kim or Chin wins the HI-1 race, which leaves the Japanese community locked out of the Congressional delegation unless Hirono’s replacement is a Japanese-American.
Hawaii is a VERY different political beast.
