2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

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https://static.texastribune.org/media/documents/ut-tt-2018-02-summary-1.pdf?_ga=2.225578778.1647027925.1519049485-1170111650.1519049485 on page 9/19, GOP leads Generic Congressional Ballot by 3 in Texas.

For reference, in 2016 the GOP won 57-37. Sessions, Hurd, and Culberson are probably f**ked if this is right.

A lot more than just those 3 would be screwed if Republicans only won the House popular vote by 3 points in Texas.

Hmmmn, probably not. All the other districts have been carried by Trump by at least 10 points. Unless the swings are concentrated in some areas.

The swing wouldn't be even at all though. For instance, among other districts, Clinton's improvement disproportionately hit these districts:

TX-21
TX-22
TX-24
TX-32

Absurdly Republican seats like TX-19 and TX-36 barely moved at all, and in fact in those two cases went more for Trump than they did for Romney.

So if I had to guess, Marchant and Smith's seats might be candidates for competitive seats under R+3 House PV in TX, even if not by much.

Not to mention even a 17 point shift from +20 statewide to +3 is going to endanger "mere" +10 or even +15 Trump seats (caveats about shifts not being uniform being noted).

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Y'know, no one is going to learn their damn lesson. We'e gonna repeat the doomsaying of the past few weeks within two months or so.

Yes, but what will be the trend of the doomsaying?

Goddamn it this made me chuckle

Lol'd here.

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Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

Can you explain the limo = andrew from rrh thing? (also what is rrh)

He's user Andrew_1918 there and it's been known for a while. They post the exact same links with the same curt comments like "Hmm... interesting" or "GOP bump" to every poll that shows Republicans doing abnormally well (but never any poll showing Democrats doing well). Oh, and the time stamps are a little too coincidental.

Ever since Andrew has been caught, he's been trying to half-assedly trick other people into believing that he's really a Democrat by making some over-compensating remark once in a blue moon about someone like Linda Belcher or Heidi Heitkamp or what have you.

It's utterly adorable, not to mention quite telling, that win limo liberal, oh, I mean Andrew, gets effectively and very oh, I mean Andrew, gets called out with very very specific evidence showing he's just Richard 1918 from rrh, he utterly duct the accusation and hoped no one would notice. Afterwards in another post he very lamely bakes the moderators to expunge all these damning posts exposing him.

Andrew, come out of the closet. You are apparently a happy little conservative out and about on rrh, so your Troll game here is up. Come out of the closet and just join our happy little world of politics junkies. But do so is yourself, not this lame-ass sock of a concern troll unconvincingly claiming to be a liberal Democrat. Just acknowledge haha it's been fun now let me tell you why I think the Republicans might keep the House and Senate blah blah blah and we can have intelligent and fun discourse and debate.

Until then, this troll action shows you're just a pussy, Andrew. Man up.

[Badger]

Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

Can you explain the limo = andrew from rrh thing? (also what is rrh)

He's user Andrew_1918 there and it's been known for a while. They post the exact same links with the same curt comments like "Hmm... interesting" or "GOP bump" to every poll that shows Republicans doing abnormally well (but never any poll showing Democrats doing well). Oh, and the time stamps are a little too coincidental.

Ever since Andrew has been caught, he's been trying to half-assedly trick other people into believing that he's really a Democrat by making some over-compensating remark once in a blue moon about someone like Linda Belcher or Heidi Heitkamp or what have you.

It's utterly adorable, not to mention quite telling, that win limo liberal, oh, I mean Andrew, gets effectively and very oh, I mean Andrew, gets called out with very very specific evidence showing he's just Richard 1918 from rrh, he utterly duct the accusation and hoped no one would notice. Afterwards in another post he very lamely bakes the moderators to expunge all these damning posts exposing him.

Andrew, come out of the closet. You are apparently a happy little conservative out and about on rrh, so your Troll game here is up. Come out of the closet and just join our happy little world of politics junkies. But do so is yourself, not this lame-ass sock of a concern troll unconvincingly claiming to be a liberal Democrat. Just acknowledge haha it's been fun now let me tell you why I think the Republicans might keep the House and Senate blah blah blah and we can have intelligent and fun discourse and debate.

Until then, this troll action shows you're just a pussy, Andrew. Man up.

Wow. Someone had a bad day at home. Hope things are better for you in the future.

Actually a rather good day, thank you, but thanks for playing.

But hey, if somehow trying to distract from the fact that it supposedly grown man invests hours a day into a juvenile hobby of trolling a politics website, and somehow wants to clean that's because MY personal life has issues, well, Whatever Gets You Through the Night

[Badger]

Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

Can you explain the limo = andrew from rrh thing? (also what is rrh)

He's user Andrew_1918 there and it's been known for a while. They post the exact same links with the same curt comments like "Hmm... interesting" or "GOP bump" to every poll that shows Republicans doing abnormally well (but never any poll showing Democrats doing well). Oh, and the time stamps are a little too coincidental.

Ever since Andrew has been caught, he's been trying to half-assedly trick other people into believing that he's really a Democrat by making some over-compensating remark once in a blue moon about someone like Linda Belcher or Heidi Heitkamp or what have you.

It's utterly adorable, not to mention quite telling, that win limo liberal, oh, I mean Andrew, gets effectively and very oh, I mean Andrew, gets called out with very very specific evidence showing he's just Richard 1918 from rrh, he utterly duct the accusation and hoped no one would notice. Afterwards in another post he very lamely bakes the moderators to expunge all these damning posts exposing him.

Andrew, come out of the closet. You are apparently a happy little conservative out and about on rrh, so your Troll game here is up. Come out of the closet and just join our happy little world of politics junkies. But do so is yourself, not this lame-ass sock of a concern troll unconvincingly claiming to be a liberal Democrat. Just acknowledge haha it's been fun now let me tell you why I think the Republicans might keep the House and Senate blah blah blah and we can have intelligent and fun discourse and debate.

Until then, this troll action shows you're just a pussy, Andrew. Man up.

Wow. Someone had a bad day at home. Hope things are better for you in the future.

Actually a rather good day, thank you, but thanks for playing.

But hey, if somehow trying to distract from the fact that it supposedly grown man invests hours a day into a juvenile hobby of trolling a politics website, and somehow wants to clean that's because MY personal life has issues, well, Whatever Gets You Through the Night

Honestly hope you feel better and can unplug yourself from the vitriol. I know I am trying to do the same.

Whatever Richard

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CNN:

Democrats 54%
Republicans 38%

Source

ENTHUSIASTIC VOTERS
Choice for Congress
 
Democrat           61%
Republican         35%


Lordy...

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CNN:

Democrats 54%
Republicans 38%

Source

ENTHUSIASTIC VOTERS
Choice for Congress
 
Democrat           61%
Republican         35%


Lordy...

Enthusiasm polling is more predictive than GCB. I've been predicting a 70+ seat loss and that enthusiasm poll only makes it seem more likely

70 seems like a stretch.

I think Democrats would peak around 40-50 seat pickups. 70 would suggest that R's would lose the Senate as well and I don't see that happening at all.

You don't? Heck, at this point I'd give it better than 50/50 odds. B currently comes down to whether or not Democrats sweep Indiana, Missouri, and Arizona, and I would give them better in 50/50 odds in each race currently. Do that in a Lloyd any mini upset and some place like West Virginia Montana or North Dakota, and that's that.

Hold a gun to my head for any one of those three races and I say the Democrat wins. Now, admittedly if you hold a gun to my head and ask me whether I'm ready to bet they sweep all three, I'm a bit more hesitant. But hearing the chamber click, I'd have to say yes. If for no other reason the way things are shaping up nationally makes me believe Donnelly Will Survive, the Arizona GOP is probably screwed especially if Kelli Ward is the nominee, and mccaskill is again  getting some assistance from the GOP committing own-goal errors

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Democratic lead on the generic ballot collapses on the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll going from D+8 to D+4. Consistent with Rasmussen showing a Trump and Republican surge.

Thanks Richard!

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Ojeda apparently has internal polling that shows him winning Republicans

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http://voteojeda.com/2018/03/05/republican-rupie-phillips-trails-ojeda-wv-03/

Carol Miller is the leading contender for the GOP, especially in regards to the money race. Interesting that they didn't share her poll numbers.

Yeah, and those numbers are going to drop no matter how military and working class regular dude oh Jada comes across as, at least once the negative ads about his support for Obamacare, etcetera are pushed. It may not be enough to beat him if these numbers are to be believed, but it's almost inconceivable He Will Carry the Republican vote in November

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Can somebody explain the logic of this to me? Why is the NRCC pouring money into this race? Let Saccone sink or swim on his own, and if he goes down they can just find a candidate that's not so abjectly awful to run for the new 14th in November. I don't think that avoiding the humiliation of losing a district in deep Trump country is worth millions of dollars.

Because if they lose this race there will be possibly another wave of retirements which will make their control of the House even more tenuous.

Not to mention fire up Democratic fundraising, enthusiasm and media narrative, while depressing all the above for republicans.

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Let’s just say that Donovan’s looks closer to the realm of reality

Average the two out in Donovan leads 47 to 28. Fwiw, that is my completely unsupported gut instinct as to how the race stands. Grim carries too much baggage even for notoriously corrupt and mobbed-up Staten Island GOP to beat an unindicted incumbent.

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Remember remember this November when GOP is done!

https://www.twitter.com/DKElections/status/973738783941242880

To add:

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While it's unrealistic to expect uniform swings, let alone of that magnitude, it's fair to say that in anything CLOSE to that great a landslide a few still-red districts on this map like MI-1 and WV-3 would also fall.

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At this point, I have completely given up on tracking the generic ballot polls. All the pollsters, no matter what result they post, acknowledge the fact the GOP is probably going to lose the House in November.

Just like how they said Hillary had a 95% chance of winning in 2016? 😜

She did.

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Tiffany Trump calling it....blue wave imminent:

She's a millennial woman who just graduated from an Ivy League school and she's going to law school in Georgetown. Of course she's liberal.

And, sadly, has as much reason to hate The Donald personally as anyone.

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https://twitter.com/donnermaps/status/980826111029293057

I would say that's more up sign of Republican lack of enthusiasm rather than Democratic enthusiasm. Same bottom line effect though.

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PPP: Rod Blum has a -20 (34/54) approval rating in IA-01

Trump (41/54) and Paul Ryan (26/61) are also underwater. The tax bill is extremely unpopular (31/53), while the ACA is popular (47/35).

Neato.

Not sure if it's from the same poll, but it was also just reported he's several points down on his Democratic Challenger. pretty bad shape for an incumbent.

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Personally, I think a 41 to 56 approval / disapproval rating in this District is probably pretty close too accurate. It's only a 12 point drop from his election totals, and Trump was able to get a good number of people who disapproved of him to vote for him because they disliked Clinton more.

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Cook Political: If Democrats Are Doing so Great, Why Don't They Have a Bigger Lead on Generic Ballot?

My theory is that because both parties are so incredibly unpopular, people don't really want to pick either of them in a generic question. Many people dislike both.

However, because democrats don't have to defend unpopular Trump, tax reform, and health care, and are able to define themselves with policies not being pursued currently, they are better able to differentiate themselves from generic D, whereas most republicans are unable to get away from the generic R label.

Good analysis. I'll also add two things this article misses. First, I'm not sure how much it accounts for voter self-identification versus actual voter registration. Weather of voter identifies with one of the two parties for an independent is often quite different from their actual voter registration. Such identification tends to ebb and flow with the popularity, or lack thereof, of the various two parties. With that in mind one can expect the number of self-identified Democrats and Republicans appearing at the polls to rise and drop accordingly.

Secondly, the selection postulates approximately 44% of independent voters voting Republican in November. Feel free to correct me, but I believe that is dramatically better than anything the Republicans have been able to manage in just about every special election in the last year, often by double digits. For example, in A-Z 8 the numbers I saw said the Republican pick up only anywhere from 1/3 1/4 of independent voters. I don't recall them doing significantly better in any of the special elections thus far with the possible exception of ga6 and Montana.

This article indicates that even 44% showing among Independents would not be good for republicans, and at this point even breaking 40% appears to be a challenge

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OH-12 poll from JMC Analytics has Balderson at 46% and O'Connor at 35%. Trump's approval in the district is at 54%

http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Ohio-12-Executive-Summary.pdf

Check out the party id of their sample though (hint: 54% Republican)

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Is KY-4 moved to tossup yet?

How on earth is that even close to a Tossup?

Don't count on Bandit for reality-based posts.