This is a good measure of what people REALLY believe when the chips are down. People can "junk poll!" and "dominating!!" and "RIP__________" till the cows come home, but putting a non-negligable amount of cash on the line tends to focus talk away from "what if" turnout models and "awesome GOTV operations" to hard cold facts. Of course, the caveat about a fool and their money soon being parted applies.
Admittedly only winning a chance at $100 isn't quite the pressure as actual cash money on the line, but it's better than just bragging rights. Soooo....
I said Hagan and Sheehan will survive, and Republicans will win every other swing race. The second hardest decision I had to make was Alaska, as God only knows how accurate polling really is up there. But the hardest was actually KS. I actually regreted that selection after making it. So I clicked onto the link Shua provided and this time voted that Roberts would lose, and I now equally regret that choice.
