Predict the year that the GOP wins the White House again (user search)
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  Predict the year that the GOP wins the White House again (search mode)
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Question: Predict the year that the GOP wins the White House again
#1
2016
 
#2
2020
 
#3
After 2020
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 105

Author Topic: Predict the year that the GOP wins the White House again  (Read 5010 times)
All Along The Watchtower
Progressive Realist
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Posts: 15,714
United States


« on: May 13, 2015, 03:38:58 PM »

I'm leaning toward 2020 myself.
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All Along The Watchtower
Progressive Realist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,714
United States


« Reply #1 on: May 13, 2015, 04:01:13 PM »
« Edited: May 13, 2015, 04:17:10 PM by PR »

Sadly, they have a very good chance of winning in 2020. No party has won 4 straight elections since Roosevelt and Truman combined for 5 straight, and I'm not convinced the Democrats are that strong, tbh.

Plus, the Republican bench is pretty solid in terms of Governors - who most Republicans seem to prefer as presidential candidates (executive experience, Washington outsider, lack of a voting record in Washington that could be used against them Tongue ).

Also, you have to keep in mind that the New Deal coalition was driven in large part by politically organized working-class voters (of all regions and racial backgrounds-Northern "ethnic" whites, Southern and Western whites, a large chunk of Appalachian whites, plus black voters in the Northern cities and also, a segment of Latino voters as well). Not only were there the ethnic/immigrant cultures of these voters to provide a sense of solidarity, but there was a broader "working-class culture" that they were a part of - especially as expressed by labor unions like the CIO, which included Communist and Socialist organizers (!)

Contrast that to the contemporary situation, where - in the wake of the New Deal coalition's collapse, the collapse of the labor movement, and the realignment of Southern (and, increasingly in other areas as well) whites to the Republican Party - there's now increased racial polarization of the American electorate, and the growing gap between wealthier voters and poorer voters in terms of political participation (including turnout in elections, but it goes beyond that). The two are very different situations.

The upshot is: Expect the Republicans to win the White House within the next couple of presidential cycles.



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