2022 French legislatives

[Antonio the Sixth]

At long, long last, here is is!



I hope you can see why it took so long to make, as there are so many weird idiosyncratic scenarios and every time another one came out I had to remake the legend to account for it. I also gave up on distinguishing between NUPES candidates and non-NUPES left-wingers, as I really didn't know how to depict that clearly (I might make another map later to show the respective success of NUPES candidates and dissidents at some point later). Similarly, I counted Ensemble dissidents as still part of Ensemble (as Vojetta shows, it's not like they aren't amenable to come back to the fold). Also, NDA is counted as far-right, because lbr he's been Le Pen-lite for years now. And of course, a lot of the designations for DTOM candidates are highly questionable given the mess that is politics over there, but I did my best.

Here's how they break down:

Left vs ENS: 285
ENS vs Far-right: 108
Left vs Far-right: 65
Left vs Right: 31
Right vs Far-Right: 31
ENS vs Right: 23
Left vs Left: 8
Left vs Other: 6
ENS vs Other: 3
Right vs Other: 2
ENS vs ENS: 1
Right vs Right: 1
Triangulaire Left/ENS/Far-right: 5
Triangulaire Left/ENS/Right: 2
Triangulaire Left/Left/ENS: 1
Left Elected: 4
ENS Elected: 1

So that's 564 duels, 8 triangulaires, and 5 elected outright (note that this last figure would be 14 if not for the turnout requirements).

Overall, that means Ensemble qualified in 429 constituencies (74%), the left in 407 (71%), the far-right in 209 (36%), the right in 90 (16%), and miscellaneous others (mostly local regionalists) in 11 (2%).

Finally, here's the breakdown by macro-region (as once again there were major differences between IdF, DTOMs, and the rest).

Non-IdF continental (438 seats, incl. 431 duels, 6 triangulaires, 1 elected)
Left vs ENS: 193
ENS vs Far-right: 105
Left vs Far-right: 60
Right vs Far-Right: 30
Left vs Right: 23
ENS vs Right: 16
Left vs Left: 3
ENS vs Other: 1
Triangulaire Left/ENS/Far-right: 5
Triangulaire Left/Left/ENS: 1
ENS Elected: 1

Ile-de-France (97 seats, incl. 91 duels, 2 triangulaires, 4 elected)
Left vs ENS: 73
Left vs Far-right: 5
Left vs Right: 4
Left vs Left: 3
ENS vs Right: 3
ENS vs Far-right: 2
Right vs Far-Right: 1
Triangulaire Left/ENS/Right: 2
Left Elected: 4

DTOMs (27 seats, all duels)
Left vs ENS: 9
Left vs Other: 6
Left vs Right: 4
ENS vs Right: 3
Left vs Left: 2
ENS vs Far-right: 1
ENS vs ENS: 1
Right vs Right: 1

French Abroad (11 seats, all duels)
Left vs ENS: 10
ENS vs Right: 1

Corsica (4 seats, all duels)
ENS vs Other: 2
Right vs Other: 2

[Antonio the Sixth]

At long, long last, here is is!

 

Thanks.  Did you get to do a seat-by-seat projection?  I wanted to compare what you came up with to my very dumb eyeball approach.

No, I'm not even going to hazard a guess. With so many unknowns, that's all the projections are.

[Antonio the Sixth]

good f**king grief

[Antonio the Sixth]

France 2 reported Clément Beaune and Stanislas Guérini narrowly survived in Paris. If so, this is looking like a significant underperformance for NUPES even in its supposed bastion of IdF.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I guess 33% less rapists in government is an improvement...