2020 Census and Redistricting: Kentucky (user search)
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  2020 Census and Redistricting: Kentucky (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting: Kentucky  (Read 6882 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,365
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« on: January 04, 2022, 06:35:19 PM »

Wow, that KY-01 is godawful. Weird that a map that isn't even a hard gerrymander would do something so ugly.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,365
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2022, 07:14:34 AM »

Funny that Kentucky might end up with one of the fairest maps (from a partisanship standpoint)

From a *purely partisanship perspective*, 5-1 is actually not fair at all. Biden won 36% of the vote in KY, so he should win a comparable number of seats, which would mean 4-2 is the fairest partisan outcome.

"Fair" in the context of FPP does not mean proportional. FPP is just not a system that can accommodate proportionality, and trying to force proportionality into it results in nonsensical monstrosities.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,365
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #2 on: January 07, 2022, 10:30:12 AM »

Funny that Kentucky might end up with one of the fairest maps (from a partisanship standpoint)

From a *purely partisanship perspective*, 5-1 is actually not fair at all. Biden won 36% of the vote in KY, so he should win a comparable number of seats, which would mean 4-2 is the fairest partisan outcome.

"Fair" in the context of FPP does not mean proportional. FPP is just not a system that can accommodate proportionality, and trying to force proportionality into it results in nonsensical monstrosities.

I agree, which the second part of my post (which you conveniently didn't quote) made very clear. What does fair, purely from the perspective of partisanship, mean, if not proportionality? A 5-1 in KY is fair because it makes sense given other dimensions like compactness, COI, etc. Drawing a 4-2 in KY (and one of the 2 would still be quite competitive) would require nasty, nasty lines.

That's a complex question and one that can have many dimensions depending on how far you want to take it. The most obvious requirement for partisan fairness is pretty obvious though: the partisanship median seat must match the partisanship of the whole polity. Of course, with regard to congress, that only makes sense when analyzing the national map as a whole - how the median seat in Kentucky votes has little relevance on partisan fairness. That said, it ought to be possible to develop some kind of algorithm to measure whether a given state is skewing the national median one way or the other.
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