2020 Census and Redistricting: Kentucky

[Sol]

Do we think that Republicans are likely to draw Jim Cooper out of a seat following 2020?  It is really easy to carve up Nashville given how Republican the surrounding districts are (and since Nashville is actually only moderately Democratic-leaning itself).

I don't know if I'd call 60-34 a moderately Democratic leaning county, but yes. We can probably assume that unless the Supreme Court rules partisan gerrymandering unconstitutional the Nashville, Louisville, and maybe Kansas City seats will be ripped apart. 

Louisville cannot be gerrymandered, Anne Northup was the last stand there and Louisville got bluer and bluer until it voted out Anne Northup, Kansas City will make one of the Western MO seats competitive. Out of these, Nashville is probably the most feasible, but I don't think Republicans want to gerrymander Democratic cities and create dummymanders, as they did in NJ, VA, TX, and GA

Ky03 is Clinton +15 and Ky 4 and Ky 2 are Trump +36 and Trump +40. Easily able to combine all  for something around Trump +20 on average. Safe R.

Problem for the GOP is the KY constitution forbids more county splitting than necessary which Ky 03 can only be made to around Clinton+8 or something like that so you might as well pack it so everyone is happy.

Reposted in the Kentucky thread since I think this'll be a little more specific.

Would that bar say, doing a Bullitt-Jefferson or Oldham-Jefferson district, with the only split being in Jefferson County/Louisville? Same number of splits as normal but presumably a much more conservative district.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If you can draw a district entirely within 1 county, you have to under the KY constitution.  This means there has to be an all Jefferson County district as it has substantially more than 1 CD worth of population.  It is impossible to draw an all Jefferson County Trump district.

Problem is that Kentucky will probably lose a seat in the next census.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If you can draw a district entirely within 1 county, you have to under the KY constitution.  This means there has to be an all Jefferson County district as it has substantially more than 1 CD worth of population.  It is impossible to draw an all Jefferson County Trump district.

Problem is that Kentucky will probably lose a seat in the next census.

Not true.

Its possible in 2030 or 2040, but not happening in 2020.

[Oryxslayer]

If you can draw a district entirely within 1 county, you have to under the KY constitution.  This means there has to be an all Jefferson County district as it has substantially more than 1 CD worth of population.  It is impossible to draw an all Jefferson County Trump district.

Problem is that Kentucky will probably lose a seat in the next census.

2020? No, the next time KY is slated to lose a seat is 2030.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I expect something like this. This map will obviously make Ben Chandler a lot safer:

Do you still have this map somewhere it can be viewed?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

A complex question towards how post-2020 Kentucky Redistricting will be handled is if the border between KY-01 and KY-02 will finally be cleaned up. Post-2010, I would assume the reason the border was not cleaned up was that it would have placed the representatives from both Districts into the cleaned up version of KY-01, which would have created a representative vs representative primary battle between 2 Republicans that the party wanted to avoid, and Democrats were willing to go along with it because they wanted to redraw KY-06 to be more favorable to them to protect Ben Chandler (though unsuccessfully). The issue is still somewhat there post-2020, but more so that it would place the KY-01 representative in KY-02 and the KY-02 representative in KY-01, which would be a swap, and not a setup that would force 2 representatives to run against each other.

[Frodo]

I know that Republicans in the Kentucky Senate have a veto-proof majority in the event Andy Beshear is elected governor just in time for the 2020 census and redistricting, but what about the Kentucky House?    

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I know that Republicans in the Kentucky Senate have a veto-proof majority in the event Andy Beshear is elected governor just in time for the 2020 census and redistricting, but what about the Kentucky House?    

I think legislators can override with a simple majority. It might not do them much good though if the courts get involved.

[Frodo]

I know that Republicans in the Kentucky Senate have a veto-proof majority in the event Andy Beshear is elected governor just in time for the 2020 census and redistricting, but what about the Kentucky House?    

I think legislators can override with a simple majority. It might not do them much good though if the courts get involved.

I can't see why -there are so few minorities (especially African-Americans) living in Kentucky that it is hard to see the need to call in the VRA cavalry.  At least not when compared with other southern states with higher concentrations. 

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I can't see why -there are so few minorities (especially African-Americans) living in Kentucky that it is hard to see the need to call in the VRA cavalry.  At least not when compared with other southern states with higher concentrations. 

Kentucky has court rulings against splitting counties too much.

[Oryxslayer]

I can't see why -there are so few minorities (especially African-Americans) living in Kentucky that it is hard to see the need to call in the VRA cavalry.  At least not when compared with other southern states with higher concentrations.  

Kentucky has court rulings against splitting counties too much.

Of course if Bevin gets reelected look for him to change that law. A Beshear victory is a 100% guarantee that the 3rd will still exist in some form next cycle, even as her sister in TN-05 gets quad-cut.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Of course if Bevin gets reelected look for him to change that law.

I think it's part of the Kentucky Constitution that was backed up by court rulings. Of course, the main court case I remember on this was in the mid-'90s when it benefited local Republicans.

[Oryxslayer]

Of course if Bevin gets reelected look for him to change that law.

I think it's part of the Kentucky Constitution that was backed up by court rulings. Of course, the main court case I remember on this was in the mid-'90s when it benefited local Republicans.

Let me explain this a bit more now that Beshear has won. The KY law/constitutional redistricting guidelines require one to keep counties and cross-county communities of interest whole whenever possible. Now if Bevin had won, I suspect the GOP would have tried something like  "We only cut one county, we just cut it 4 times and it's Jefferson." With beshear in power, despite his nominal lack of influence on redistricting, this is not a route worth going down. The legal resources of the executive are not to be trifled with, especially once Beshear get appointing judges to the courts who already have a good number of dems from his dads days. So, there will probably be a implicit understanding that if the GOP leaves the dems alone in their turf (KY03 congressionally, Louisville/Lexington/Frankfurt/Covington cities state legislatively) then they can do whatever the hell they want in the rest of the state, and Beshear won't raise a fuss.

[Skill and Chance]

Of course if Bevin gets reelected look for him to change that law.

I think it's part of the Kentucky Constitution that was backed up by court rulings. Of course, the main court case I remember on this was in the mid-'90s when it benefited local Republicans.

Let me explain this a bit more now that Beshear has won. The KY law/constitutional redistricting guidelines require one to keep counties and cross-county communities of interest whole whenever possible. Now if Bevin had won, I suspect the GOP would have tried something like  "We only cut one county, we just cut it 4 times and it's Jefferson." With beshear in power, despite his nominal lack of influence on redistricting, this is not a route worth going down. The legal resources of the executive are not to be trifled with, especially once Beshear get appointing judges to the courts who already have a good number of dems from his dads days. So, there will probably be a implicit understanding that if the GOP leaves the dems alone in their turf (KY03 congressionally, Louisville/Lexington/Frankfurt/Covington cities state legislatively) then they can do whatever the hell they want in the rest of the state, and Beshear won't raise a fuss.

Yes, I think Beshear's win basically assures the legislative GOP won't try to push the limits with Yarmuth/Louisville/Jefferson County.  Also, after seeing what happened in 2019 in Oldham, Bowling Green, and the Cincinnati suburbs, Massie and Guthrie might not be so keen on picking up Dem parts of Louisville.  And the most overwhelmingly R district is stuck in the wrong corner of the state for a Louisville split.

What I think they might try is bringing KY-05 west to split Fayette (Lexington) with KY-06 (and making at least 2 currently split rural counties whole to try and justify it under the state constitution).     

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Kentucky Supreme Court wouldn't stand for any likely hijinks, it's pretty balanced and can only shift left under Beshear. I suspect we'll see Lexington placed with some more Republican rural areas but no splits.

[Idaho Conservative]

Of course if Bevin gets reelected look for him to change that law.

I think it's part of the Kentucky Constitution that was backed up by court rulings. Of course, the main court case I remember on this was in the mid-'90s when it benefited local Republicans.

Let me explain this a bit more now that Beshear has won. The KY law/constitutional redistricting guidelines require one to keep counties and cross-county communities of interest whole whenever possible. Now if Bevin had won, I suspect the GOP would have tried something like  "We only cut one county, we just cut it 4 times and it's Jefferson." With beshear in power, despite his nominal lack of influence on redistricting, this is not a route worth going down. The legal resources of the executive are not to be trifled with, especially once Beshear get appointing judges to the courts who already have a good number of dems from his dads days. So, there will probably be a implicit understanding that if the GOP leaves the dems alone in their turf (KY03 congressionally, Louisville/Lexington/Frankfurt/Covington cities state legislatively) then they can do whatever the hell they want in the rest of the state, and Beshear won't raise a fuss.

Jefferson county must be split once, and 2 R+8 districts could be made from that.  If I were the GOP I'd split Jeffco once making a 5R and 1 tossup map.  The 5 R districts could be at least 60% R and Yarmuth having a tossup seat directs Dem resources away from targeting R incumbents like Barr to shoring up Yarmuth.  Yarmuth could hold on, but he would attract a lot more attention from potential challengers.  Republicans could also justify this not as gerrymandering, just making a true swing seat (at the cost of the blue seat tho).  The legislature could override a veto and the map would be legal under state law since Jeffco is too big for a district. 

[Skill and Chance]

Of course if Bevin gets reelected look for him to change that law.

I think it's part of the Kentucky Constitution that was backed up by court rulings. Of course, the main court case I remember on this was in the mid-'90s when it benefited local Republicans.

Let me explain this a bit more now that Beshear has won. The KY law/constitutional redistricting guidelines require one to keep counties and cross-county communities of interest whole whenever possible. Now if Bevin had won, I suspect the GOP would have tried something like  "We only cut one county, we just cut it 4 times and it's Jefferson." With beshear in power, despite his nominal lack of influence on redistricting, this is not a route worth going down. The legal resources of the executive are not to be trifled with, especially once Beshear get appointing judges to the courts who already have a good number of dems from his dads days. So, there will probably be a implicit understanding that if the GOP leaves the dems alone in their turf (KY03 congressionally, Louisville/Lexington/Frankfurt/Covington cities state legislatively) then they can do whatever the hell they want in the rest of the state, and Beshear won't raise a fuss.

Jefferson county must be split once, and 2 R+8 districts could be made from that.  If I were the GOP I'd split Jeffco once making a 5R and 1 tossup map.  The 5 R districts could be at least 60% R and Yarmuth having a tossup seat directs Dem resources away from targeting R incumbents like Barr to shoring up Yarmuth.  Yarmuth could hold on, but he would attract a lot more attention from potential challengers.  Republicans could also justify this not as gerrymandering, just making a true swing seat (at the cost of the blue seat tho).  The legislature could override a veto and the map would be legal under state law since Jeffco is too big for a district. 

Jefferson County has to be split, but it is possible to draw a CD entirely within the county.  The critical question under the Kentucky laws/constitution/relevant court decisions is whether that all Jefferson CD has to be drawn.  If it has to be drawn, Yarmuth is likely safe for the decade.  I believe it is impossible to draw a Trump 2016 district entirely within Jefferson, and the GOP Rep who has to take the remaining slice of Jefferson would obviously insist on having the most Republican areas of the county.   

[Idaho Conservative]

Of course if Bevin gets reelected look for him to change that law.

I think it's part of the Kentucky Constitution that was backed up by court rulings. Of course, the main court case I remember on this was in the mid-'90s when it benefited local Republicans.

Let me explain this a bit more now that Beshear has won. The KY law/constitutional redistricting guidelines require one to keep counties and cross-county communities of interest whole whenever possible. Now if Bevin had won, I suspect the GOP would have tried something like  "We only cut one county, we just cut it 4 times and it's Jefferson." With beshear in power, despite his nominal lack of influence on redistricting, this is not a route worth going down. The legal resources of the executive are not to be trifled with, especially once Beshear get appointing judges to the courts who already have a good number of dems from his dads days. So, there will probably be a implicit understanding that if the GOP leaves the dems alone in their turf (KY03 congressionally, Louisville/Lexington/Frankfurt/Covington cities state legislatively) then they can do whatever the hell they want in the rest of the state, and Beshear won't raise a fuss.

Jefferson county must be split once, and 2 R+8 districts could be made from that.  If I were the GOP I'd split Jeffco once making a 5R and 1 tossup map.  The 5 R districts could be at least 60% R and Yarmuth having a tossup seat directs Dem resources away from targeting R incumbents like Barr to shoring up Yarmuth.  Yarmuth could hold on, but he would attract a lot more attention from potential challengers.  Republicans could also justify this not as gerrymandering, just making a true swing seat (at the cost of the blue seat tho).  The legislature could override a veto and the map would be legal under state law since Jeffco is too big for a district. 

Jefferson County has to be split, but it is possible to draw a CD entirely within the county.  The critical question under the Kentucky laws/constitution/relevant court decisions is whether that all Jefferson CD has to be drawn.  If it has to be drawn, Yarmuth is likely safe for the decade.  I believe it is impossible to draw a Trump 2016 district entirely within Jefferson, and the GOP Rep who has to take the remaining slice of Jefferson would obviously insist on having the most Republican areas of the county.   

Well according to the letter of the law it says only split counties when necessary, not that a district must be only in one county if possible. 

[Oryxslayer]

Of course if Bevin gets reelected look for him to change that law.

I think it's part of the Kentucky Constitution that was backed up by court rulings. Of course, the main court case I remember on this was in the mid-'90s when it benefited local Republicans.

Let me explain this a bit more now that Beshear has won. The KY law/constitutional redistricting guidelines require one to keep counties and cross-county communities of interest whole whenever possible. Now if Bevin had won, I suspect the GOP would have tried something like  "We only cut one county, we just cut it 4 times and it's Jefferson." With beshear in power, despite his nominal lack of influence on redistricting, this is not a route worth going down. The legal resources of the executive are not to be trifled with, especially once Beshear get appointing judges to the courts who already have a good number of dems from his dads days. So, there will probably be a implicit understanding that if the GOP leaves the dems alone in their turf (KY03 congressionally, Louisville/Lexington/Frankfurt/Covington cities state legislatively) then they can do whatever the hell they want in the rest of the state, and Beshear won't raise a fuss.

Jefferson county must be split once, and 2 R+8 districts could be made from that.  If I were the GOP I'd split Jeffco once making a 5R and 1 tossup map.  The 5 R districts could be at least 60% R and Yarmuth having a tossup seat directs Dem resources away from targeting R incumbents like Barr to shoring up Yarmuth.  Yarmuth could hold on, but he would attract a lot more attention from potential challengers.  Republicans could also justify this not as gerrymandering, just making a true swing seat (at the cost of the blue seat tho).  The legislature could override a veto and the map would be legal under state law since Jeffco is too big for a district. 

Jefferson County has to be split, but it is possible to draw a CD entirely within the county.  The critical question under the Kentucky laws/constitution/relevant court decisions is whether that all Jefferson CD has to be drawn.  If it has to be drawn, Yarmuth is likely safe for the decade.  I believe it is impossible to draw a Trump 2016 district entirely within Jefferson, and the GOP Rep who has to take the remaining slice of Jefferson would obviously insist on having the most Republican areas of the county.   

Well according to the letter of the law it says only split counties when necessary, not that a district must be only in one county if possible. 

Yes, but the GOP probably won't want to push that particular envelope and get into a fight with their governor, even though his influence is more  'soft' in this case. The KY courts still have quite a few Blue appointees from Beshear Senior's days, and no doubt Beshear Junior is going to get more  in place before the fight begins. Far easier to stay the course and go ham on the legislative maps since that's where power actually lies in this state. The state house lines were drawn by democrats last time after all.

[Skill and Chance]

Of course if Bevin gets reelected look for him to change that law.

I think it's part of the Kentucky Constitution that was backed up by court rulings. Of course, the main court case I remember on this was in the mid-'90s when it benefited local Republicans.

Let me explain this a bit more now that Beshear has won. The KY law/constitutional redistricting guidelines require one to keep counties and cross-county communities of interest whole whenever possible. Now if Bevin had won, I suspect the GOP would have tried something like  "We only cut one county, we just cut it 4 times and it's Jefferson." With beshear in power, despite his nominal lack of influence on redistricting, this is not a route worth going down. The legal resources of the executive are not to be trifled with, especially once Beshear get appointing judges to the courts who already have a good number of dems from his dads days. So, there will probably be a implicit understanding that if the GOP leaves the dems alone in their turf (KY03 congressionally, Louisville/Lexington/Frankfurt/Covington cities state legislatively) then they can do whatever the hell they want in the rest of the state, and Beshear won't raise a fuss.

Jefferson county must be split once, and 2 R+8 districts could be made from that.  If I were the GOP I'd split Jeffco once making a 5R and 1 tossup map.  The 5 R districts could be at least 60% R and Yarmuth having a tossup seat directs Dem resources away from targeting R incumbents like Barr to shoring up Yarmuth.  Yarmuth could hold on, but he would attract a lot more attention from potential challengers.  Republicans could also justify this not as gerrymandering, just making a true swing seat (at the cost of the blue seat tho).  The legislature could override a veto and the map would be legal under state law since Jeffco is too big for a district. 

Jefferson County has to be split, but it is possible to draw a CD entirely within the county.  The critical question under the Kentucky laws/constitution/relevant court decisions is whether that all Jefferson CD has to be drawn.  If it has to be drawn, Yarmuth is likely safe for the decade.  I believe it is impossible to draw a Trump 2016 district entirely within Jefferson, and the GOP Rep who has to take the remaining slice of Jefferson would obviously insist on having the most Republican areas of the county.   

Well according to the letter of the law it says only split counties when necessary, not that a district must be only in one county if possible. 

Yes, but the GOP probably won't want to push that particular envelope and get into a fight with their governor, even though his influence is more  'soft' in this case. The KY courts still have quite a few Blue appointees from Beshear Senior's days, and no doubt Beshear Junior is going to get more  in place before the fight begins. Far easier to stay the course and go ham on the legislative maps since that's where power actually lies in this state. The state house lines were drawn by democrats last time after all.

The constitutional language re: the legislative maps is even more aggressive and the state courts literally struck down the last set of legislative maps.  If anything, the congressional map is where they have more latitude.  I guess another important question is how much do they need Beshear on other issues?  Despite simple majority veto override, I believe the KY governor do a lot by executive order/unilateral appointment to various commissions.  I recall that Beshear Sr. was able to do Medicaid expansion by executive order and Bevin was able to modify/partially repeal it despite the split legislative control.  That is beyond the governor's authority in most states.

[Idaho Conservative]

Of course if Bevin gets reelected look for him to change that law.

I think it's part of the Kentucky Constitution that was backed up by court rulings. Of course, the main court case I remember on this was in the mid-'90s when it benefited local Republicans.

Let me explain this a bit more now that Beshear has won. The KY law/constitutional redistricting guidelines require one to keep counties and cross-county communities of interest whole whenever possible. Now if Bevin had won, I suspect the GOP would have tried something like  "We only cut one county, we just cut it 4 times and it's Jefferson." With beshear in power, despite his nominal lack of influence on redistricting, this is not a route worth going down. The legal resources of the executive are not to be trifled with, especially once Beshear get appointing judges to the courts who already have a good number of dems from his dads days. So, there will probably be a implicit understanding that if the GOP leaves the dems alone in their turf (KY03 congressionally, Louisville/Lexington/Frankfurt/Covington cities state legislatively) then they can do whatever the hell they want in the rest of the state, and Beshear won't raise a fuss.

Jefferson county must be split once, and 2 R+8 districts could be made from that.  If I were the GOP I'd split Jeffco once making a 5R and 1 tossup map.  The 5 R districts could be at least 60% R and Yarmuth having a tossup seat directs Dem resources away from targeting R incumbents like Barr to shoring up Yarmuth.  Yarmuth could hold on, but he would attract a lot more attention from potential challengers.  Republicans could also justify this not as gerrymandering, just making a true swing seat (at the cost of the blue seat tho).  The legislature could override a veto and the map would be legal under state law since Jeffco is too big for a district. 

Jefferson County has to be split, but it is possible to draw a CD entirely within the county.  The critical question under the Kentucky laws/constitution/relevant court decisions is whether that all Jefferson CD has to be drawn.  If it has to be drawn, Yarmuth is likely safe for the decade.  I believe it is impossible to draw a Trump 2016 district entirely within Jefferson, and the GOP Rep who has to take the remaining slice of Jefferson would obviously insist on having the most Republican areas of the county.   

Well according to the letter of the law it says only split counties when necessary, not that a district must be only in one county if possible. 

Yes, but the GOP probably won't want to push that particular envelope and get into a fight with their governor, even though his influence is more  'soft' in this case. The KY courts still have quite a few Blue appointees from Beshear Senior's days, and no doubt Beshear Junior is going to get more  in place before the fight begins. Far easier to stay the course and go ham on the legislative maps since that's where power actually lies in this state. The state house lines were drawn by democrats last time after all.

The constitutional language re: the legislative maps is even more aggressive and the state courts literally struck down the last set of legislative maps.  If anything, the congressional map is where they have more latitude.  I guess another important question is how much do they need Beshear on other issues?  Despite simple majority veto override, I believe the KY governor do a lot by executive order/unilateral appointment to various commissions.  I recall that Beshear Sr. was able to do Medicaid expansion by executive order and Bevin was able to modify/partially repeal it despite the split legislative control.  That is beyond the governor's authority in most states.

State courts struck down the last maps for being too Dem friendly?

[Skill and Chance]

Of course if Bevin gets reelected look for him to change that law.

I think it's part of the Kentucky Constitution that was backed up by court rulings. Of course, the main court case I remember on this was in the mid-'90s when it benefited local Republicans.

Let me explain this a bit more now that Beshear has won. The KY law/constitutional redistricting guidelines require one to keep counties and cross-county communities of interest whole whenever possible. Now if Bevin had won, I suspect the GOP would have tried something like  "We only cut one county, we just cut it 4 times and it's Jefferson." With beshear in power, despite his nominal lack of influence on redistricting, this is not a route worth going down. The legal resources of the executive are not to be trifled with, especially once Beshear get appointing judges to the courts who already have a good number of dems from his dads days. So, there will probably be a implicit understanding that if the GOP leaves the dems alone in their turf (KY03 congressionally, Louisville/Lexington/Frankfurt/Covington cities state legislatively) then they can do whatever the hell they want in the rest of the state, and Beshear won't raise a fuss.

Jefferson county must be split once, and 2 R+8 districts could be made from that.  If I were the GOP I'd split Jeffco once making a 5R and 1 tossup map.  The 5 R districts could be at least 60% R and Yarmuth having a tossup seat directs Dem resources away from targeting R incumbents like Barr to shoring up Yarmuth.  Yarmuth could hold on, but he would attract a lot more attention from potential challengers.  Republicans could also justify this not as gerrymandering, just making a true swing seat (at the cost of the blue seat tho).  The legislature could override a veto and the map would be legal under state law since Jeffco is too big for a district. 

Jefferson County has to be split, but it is possible to draw a CD entirely within the county.  The critical question under the Kentucky laws/constitution/relevant court decisions is whether that all Jefferson CD has to be drawn.  If it has to be drawn, Yarmuth is likely safe for the decade.  I believe it is impossible to draw a Trump 2016 district entirely within Jefferson, and the GOP Rep who has to take the remaining slice of Jefferson would obviously insist on having the most Republican areas of the county.   

Well according to the letter of the law it says only split counties when necessary, not that a district must be only in one county if possible. 

Yes, but the GOP probably won't want to push that particular envelope and get into a fight with their governor, even though his influence is more  'soft' in this case. The KY courts still have quite a few Blue appointees from Beshear Senior's days, and no doubt Beshear Junior is going to get more  in place before the fight begins. Far easier to stay the course and go ham on the legislative maps since that's where power actually lies in this state. The state house lines were drawn by democrats last time after all.

The constitutional language re: the legislative maps is even more aggressive and the state courts literally struck down the last set of legislative maps.  If anything, the congressional map is where they have more latitude.  I guess another important question is how much do they need Beshear on other issues?  Despite simple majority veto override, I believe the KY governor do a lot by executive order/unilateral appointment to various commissions.  I recall that Beshear Sr. was able to do Medicaid expansion by executive order and Bevin was able to modify/partially repeal it despite the split legislative control.  That is beyond the governor's authority in most states.

State courts struck down the last maps for being too Dem friendly?

No, there was a compromise where the state senate GOP and state house Dems both drew whatever they wanted for their respective chambers.  Both maps were successfully challenged on county splitting and unequal population grounds and struck down.  The state courts just left the 2002 maps in place for the 2012 election (a bit ironic because part of the reason the 2011 maps were struck down was malapportionment by population).  The divided legislature was reelected and they made a new deal in 2013 and those maps were upheld. 

Republicans will want to be careful to avoid this because if the same scenario happened again, the 2022 elections would be run under the revised 2013 maps, which include a Dem gerrymander of the lower house that kept them in power through 2016.   

It's also worth noting the KY courts threw out the 1990's maps for similar reasons. 

[Idaho Conservative]

Of course if Bevin gets reelected look for him to change that law.

I think it's part of the Kentucky Constitution that was backed up by court rulings. Of course, the main court case I remember on this was in the mid-'90s when it benefited local Republicans.

Let me explain this a bit more now that Beshear has won. The KY law/constitutional redistricting guidelines require one to keep counties and cross-county communities of interest whole whenever possible. Now if Bevin had won, I suspect the GOP would have tried something like  "We only cut one county, we just cut it 4 times and it's Jefferson." With beshear in power, despite his nominal lack of influence on redistricting, this is not a route worth going down. The legal resources of the executive are not to be trifled with, especially once Beshear get appointing judges to the courts who already have a good number of dems from his dads days. So, there will probably be a implicit understanding that if the GOP leaves the dems alone in their turf (KY03 congressionally, Louisville/Lexington/Frankfurt/Covington cities state legislatively) then they can do whatever the hell they want in the rest of the state, and Beshear won't raise a fuss.

Jefferson county must be split once, and 2 R+8 districts could be made from that.  If I were the GOP I'd split Jeffco once making a 5R and 1 tossup map.  The 5 R districts could be at least 60% R and Yarmuth having a tossup seat directs Dem resources away from targeting R incumbents like Barr to shoring up Yarmuth.  Yarmuth could hold on, but he would attract a lot more attention from potential challengers.  Republicans could also justify this not as gerrymandering, just making a true swing seat (at the cost of the blue seat tho).  The legislature could override a veto and the map would be legal under state law since Jeffco is too big for a district. 

Jefferson County has to be split, but it is possible to draw a CD entirely within the county.  The critical question under the Kentucky laws/constitution/relevant court decisions is whether that all Jefferson CD has to be drawn.  If it has to be drawn, Yarmuth is likely safe for the decade.  I believe it is impossible to draw a Trump 2016 district entirely within Jefferson, and the GOP Rep who has to take the remaining slice of Jefferson would obviously insist on having the most Republican areas of the county.   

Well according to the letter of the law it says only split counties when necessary, not that a district must be only in one county if possible. 

Yes, but the GOP probably won't want to push that particular envelope and get into a fight with their governor, even though his influence is more  'soft' in this case. The KY courts still have quite a few Blue appointees from Beshear Senior's days, and no doubt Beshear Junior is going to get more  in place before the fight begins. Far easier to stay the course and go ham on the legislative maps since that's where power actually lies in this state. The state house lines were drawn by democrats last time after all.

What do they have to lose?  Worst case the map gets struck down and you get a 5-1 like we have now. https://davesredistricting.org/join/f4830a07-e393-40cf-94a3-2c1982cc47d2 5 R-1 tossup map.  1 county split, districts within 1% population of each other, no 2 R incumbents live in the same district, least red republican district is R+14 and heavily polarized between rural areas and a little slice of urban Louisville.  Barr gets an R+15 seat, never faces a competitive race again.  The only competitive district is now Yarmuth's, who now has to run in an R+3 district.  A 9 point shift right according to PVI.  It is a McCain-Romney-Trump seat.  Yarmuth isn't doomed since he overperforms, but now Dems have to put resources there instead of elsewhere. He could also very well lose.

[Nyvin]

Of course if Bevin gets reelected look for him to change that law.

I think it's part of the Kentucky Constitution that was backed up by court rulings. Of course, the main court case I remember on this was in the mid-'90s when it benefited local Republicans.

Let me explain this a bit more now that Beshear has won. The KY law/constitutional redistricting guidelines require one to keep counties and cross-county communities of interest whole whenever possible. Now if Bevin had won, I suspect the GOP would have tried something like  "We only cut one county, we just cut it 4 times and it's Jefferson." With beshear in power, despite his nominal lack of influence on redistricting, this is not a route worth going down. The legal resources of the executive are not to be trifled with, especially once Beshear get appointing judges to the courts who already have a good number of dems from his dads days. So, there will probably be a implicit understanding that if the GOP leaves the dems alone in their turf (KY03 congressionally, Louisville/Lexington/Frankfurt/Covington cities state legislatively) then they can do whatever the hell they want in the rest of the state, and Beshear won't raise a fuss.

Jefferson county must be split once, and 2 R+8 districts could be made from that.  If I were the GOP I'd split Jeffco once making a 5R and 1 tossup map.  The 5 R districts could be at least 60% R and Yarmuth having a tossup seat directs Dem resources away from targeting R incumbents like Barr to shoring up Yarmuth.  Yarmuth could hold on, but he would attract a lot more attention from potential challengers.  Republicans could also justify this not as gerrymandering, just making a true swing seat (at the cost of the blue seat tho).  The legislature could override a veto and the map would be legal under state law since Jeffco is too big for a district. 

I don't see how you can make the legal argument that two districts leaving Jefferson and entering other counties isn't excessive splitting when it only has to be 1 district that leaves Jefferson. 

[Idaho Conservative]

Of course if Bevin gets reelected look for him to change that law.

I think it's part of the Kentucky Constitution that was backed up by court rulings. Of course, the main court case I remember on this was in the mid-'90s when it benefited local Republicans.

Let me explain this a bit more now that Beshear has won. The KY law/constitutional redistricting guidelines require one to keep counties and cross-county communities of interest whole whenever possible. Now if Bevin had won, I suspect the GOP would have tried something like  "We only cut one county, we just cut it 4 times and it's Jefferson." With beshear in power, despite his nominal lack of influence on redistricting, this is not a route worth going down. The legal resources of the executive are not to be trifled with, especially once Beshear get appointing judges to the courts who already have a good number of dems from his dads days. So, there will probably be a implicit understanding that if the GOP leaves the dems alone in their turf (KY03 congressionally, Louisville/Lexington/Frankfurt/Covington cities state legislatively) then they can do whatever the hell they want in the rest of the state, and Beshear won't raise a fuss.

Jefferson county must be split once, and 2 R+8 districts could be made from that.  If I were the GOP I'd split Jeffco once making a 5R and 1 tossup map.  The 5 R districts could be at least 60% R and Yarmuth having a tossup seat directs Dem resources away from targeting R incumbents like Barr to shoring up Yarmuth.  Yarmuth could hold on, but he would attract a lot more attention from potential challengers.  Republicans could also justify this not as gerrymandering, just making a true swing seat (at the cost of the blue seat tho).  The legislature could override a veto and the map would be legal under state law since Jeffco is too big for a district. 

I don't see how you can make the legal argument that two districts leaving Jefferson and entering other counties isn't excessive splitting when it only has to be 1 district that leaves Jefferson. 

Because Jeffco is still only split once.  A district containing multiple counties isn't a split.