2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

Do Dems need to net 600k from mail ballots alone, or is it mail+early voting?

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1312971195537649664?s=21

I called this out when it came to the KY DEM PRIM...

DEM ballots getting overwhelmingly tossed in the waste basket with shifts towards Vote-By-Mail.

Do we have concrete reasons to assume this is the product of deliberate manipulation? Isn't election administration in NC under Democratic control?

The alternative is that poorer, more Dem-friendly areas are also more likely to have systematic barriers to voting that increase the likelihood of rejection. Which is awful too, of course, but not as existentially terrifying.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Now up to 9.2 million early votes. 

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

really insane when you consider there's either nothing or a small percent from 3 of the 4 biggest states (NY, CA, TX) and still a lot of other states that haven't even started reporting.  I think turnout is going to be massive this year.

Do we know how many votes were recorded at that point in 2016?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Now up to 9.2 million early votes. 

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

really insane when you consider there's either nothing or a small percent from 3 of the 4 biggest states (NY, CA, TX) and still a lot of other states that haven't even started reporting.  I think turnout is going to be massive this year.

Do we know how many votes were recorded at that point in 2016?

429,337 votes for the week ending Oct 9, 2016.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/early-voting-a-month-to-g_b_12424562

The week ending on October 16 would be a better comparison, since election day was almost a week later.

But yeah this looks like a major bump.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Now up to 9.2 million early votes. 

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

really insane when you consider there's either nothing or a small percent from 3 of the 4 biggest states (NY, CA, TX) and still a lot of other states that haven't even started reporting.  I think turnout is going to be massive this year.

Do we know how many votes were recorded at that point in 2016?

429,337 votes for the week ending Oct 9, 2016.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/early-voting-a-month-to-g_b_12424562

The week ending on October 16 would be a better comparison, since election day was almost a week later.

But yeah this looks like a major bump.

1.2 Million.  46.26 Millon voted in the before Election Day.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-more-states_b_12517738.html

Thanks! It's really useful to have a point of comparison.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Dems have taken over 100 k lead over GOP in Iowa early voting.
IA-1
Dem 56.2 k
Rep 22.7k
Dem + 33.5 k

IA-2
Dem 51.6 k
Rep 20.2k
Dem +31.4 k

IA-3
Dem 50k
Rep 21.9k
Dem +28.1 k

IA-4
Dem 31.3 k
Rep 23.5k
Dem +7.8k

Total
Dem 189.1 k
Rep 88.4k
Dem +100.7k

Daily Absentee Statistics - By Congressional District

How does that compare to previous years? I know Iowa always has a D advantage in early voting, even in really bad years like 2014 and 2016.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can we have a rundown on how voting is going in WI, MI, PA and NC? I haven't heard much about those states in over a week, and the ElectProject numbers recently seem to have stalled. Is it due to lags in reporting or have those states just blown their load already?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can we have a rundown on how voting is going in WI, MI, PA and NC? I haven't heard much about those states in over a week, and the ElectProject numbers recently seem to have stalled. Is it due to lags in reporting or have those states just blown their load already?

My Wisconsin Spreadsheet

So Dane's still leading the pack by a wide margin, Milwaukee is also above average in its return rate, and other leading counties are also largely Dem-friendly (although WOW is also in there). That makes sense.

I feel like these totals have barely gone up in the past few days, though. Is that normal? Or am I mistaken?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can we have a rundown on how voting is going in WI, MI, PA and NC? I haven't heard much about those states in over a week, and the ElectProject numbers recently seem to have stalled. Is it due to lags in reporting or have those states just blown their load already?

My Wisconsin Spreadsheet

So Dane's still leading the pack by a wide margin, Milwaukee is also above average in its return rate, and other leading counties are also largely Dem-friendly (although WOW is also in there). That makes sense.

I feel like these totals have barely gone up in the past few days, though. Is that normal? Or am I mistaken?

It's slowing down a little bit:

9/22-9/29: 270,511 new votes
9/29-10/6: 236,794 new votes
10/6-10/13: 171,815 new votes

With Monday being a Federal holiday, I think that explains a significant portion of the decline in week 3. If you count the ballots added today (meaning counted on Tuesday) it goes up to 210,858 new votes.

Wisconsin has one more week of only mail absentee voting, starting next Tuesday in person absentee voting starts. I would expect the pace to pick back up again. Today is also the last day to request a mail absentee ballot and register to vote online. Folks can still register to vote in person during the early vote window and on election day.

Fingers crossed Dane County can hit 50% before early voting starts. I think they'll get close, but they would need to pick up the pace a bit to hit the mark.

Very helpful, thanks!

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/NCSBE/status/1316887674301652992

How does that compare to 2016?

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/NCSBE/status/1316887674301652992

How does that compare to 2016?

2016 was 166,000

NICE

[Antonio the Sixth]

North Carolina surpasses 1 million votes cast

https://twitter.com/OldNorthStPol/status/1317182635727331328

Do we have the partisan breakdown?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Not sure if anyone has posted this, but Ralston has started talking about the NV ballots so far. This is a state where the early vote is a somewhat good indicator of how things will go.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1317221593525886976

Anyone know where we were in Nevada at this point in 2016?  Those look like really good numbers for Democrats so far.

It's an apples-to-oranges comparison, since early voting was (AFAIK) mostly in-person in 2016, and only absentee voting has happened so far this year (I think in-person starts tomorrow), but here's the data from Week 1 of 2016:

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543

So Democrats have the same raw vote lead a week earlier and with less than a third of the vote in.

[Antonio the Sixth]

NC early in-person more favorable for GOP yesterday than two days ago, D+9 on ballots returned 10/16 vs D+20 on 10/15, white/black share at 67/23 compared to 59/31. Total vote is similar (322k vs 332k)

How does that compare to 2016?

[Antonio the Sixth]

NC early in-person more favorable for GOP yesterday than two days ago, D+9 on ballots returned 10/16 vs D+20 on 10/15, white/black share at 67/23 compared to 59/31. Total vote is similar (322k vs 332k)

How does that compare to 2016?

I'll try and find partisan stats but about 160k ballots were cast total on each day of the first two days of early voting in NC in 2016, so early in-person vote rate is 2x as high thus far.

First day of in-person early vote 2016 (10/20)
Dem 86715 (52.4%)
Rep 40631 (24.6%)
Una 37983 (23.0%)

Second day of in-person early vote 2016 (10/21)
Dem 75060 (48.4%)
Rep 42178 (27.2%)
Una 37745 (24.4%)

Third day of in-person early vote 2016 (10/22, first Saturday)
Dem 109854 (49.1%)
Rep 58464 (26.1%)
Una 55468 (24.8%)

After considering mail-in votes (which were 32/40/29 D/R/I in 2016) the overall composition of absentee voters (mail + in-person) in NC two days into the early in-person voting period is roughly the same as what it is now, but the number of votes cast is still vastly different (1.25 mil after yesterday vs 387k in 2016)

Hmm. So there's been a switch where early in-person is normally overwhelmingly Democrat, but this year it's only moderately so, while mail voting was normally R-leaning but this year is overwhelmingly Democrat (and there's a lot more of it, of course). I guess that makes sense given the discourse around VBM.

[Antonio the Sixth]

NC 10/20, day 6 early in-person vote:

Dem 99618 (35.4%)
Rep 101656 (36.1%)
Una 80452 (28.6%)
Total 281726

compared to day 5 in 2016

Dem 70132 (44.4%)
Rep 48998 (31.1%)
Una 38531 (24.4%)
Total 157661

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 616933 (41.4%)
Rep 468767 (31.5%)
Una 403866 (27.1%)
Total 1489566

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 941926 (43.9%)
Rep 592220 (27.6%)
Una 613188 (28.6%)
Total 2147334

GOP gets their first single day early vote win in NC narrowly, but Dems still increase the total raw ballot lead slightly due to mail-in ballots

Is there a place you're taking this info from? Is it Election Project or the actual SoS data?

Also, what were the final numbers in NC in 2016?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nevada fooled the GOP agian lol

Could also be used for Iowa after people get their hopes up again over promising early vote returns there, lol

in 2012 D early vote lead was 68 k, 288 k D voted early.
in 2016 D early vote lead was 42 k, 267 k D voted early
in 2020 D early vote lead is 136 k,  already 324 k D voted early.
So, it is not fair comparison.  2020 is not 2016.

Dems had a huge lead in 2018.

Don't just say "huge lead". Give us the actual numbers.

Edit: I see other people already have. Please take note, and next time use actual data instead of meaningless words.

[Antonio the Sixth]

NC 10/20, day 6 early in-person vote:

Dem 99618 (35.4%)
Rep 101656 (36.1%)
Una 80452 (28.6%)
Total 281726

compared to day 5 in 2016

Dem 70132 (44.4%)
Rep 48998 (31.1%)
Una 38531 (24.4%)
Total 157661

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 616933 (41.4%)
Rep 468767 (31.5%)
Una 403866 (27.1%)
Total 1489566

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 941926 (43.9%)
Rep 592220 (27.6%)
Una 613188 (28.6%)
Total 2147334

GOP gets their first single day early vote win in NC narrowly, but Dems still increase the total raw ballot lead slightly due to mail-in ballots

Is there a place you're taking this info from? Is it Election Project or the actual SoS data?

Also, what were the final numbers in NC in 2016?

I usually post soon after the SOS updates here, and just compare to the previous day's totals. They post other neat stuff (they have daily reports comparing to 2016 but only # of ballots) + past final absentee files here . For 2016 early vote I've just been filtering the 2016 data by date, should probably set up the code I wrote to better compare the cumulative totals on each date rather than just posting individual day comparisons.

Thanks! That's a pretty annoying format, so thank you for crunching the numbers for us.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wait, Michael McDonald is a GOP operative?

I always thought he was just a nonpartisan numbers guy.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wait, Michael McDonald is a GOP operative?

 I always thought he was just a nonpartisan numbers guy.

Not sure if you're joking but there's two Michael McDonalds, one's the chair of the NV GOP and the other is the ElectProject guy.

Ah I see. No, I did not know that.